The threat of rain has been a major talking point in Canada, and while the details of what we can expect on Sunday have been changing, it seems that unlike in Miami three weeks ago there is still a good chance the weather will have an impact on the race this time around.
Rain always creates jeopardy in F1, even more so at circuits like Montreal, where there is little margin for error and the walls are never far away. This time there’s an added twist, as we have not yet had an official wet session this season – and thus knowledge of how the 2026 cars and tyres behave in the wet is limited.
However, there have been a few wet test days for some, which were enough to demonstrate that it’s not easy to get the tyres into their most effective operating window and keep them there, and managing the 2026 power units in changing conditions could be challenging.
Intriguingly while a few teams were able to use those wet tests to get at least some understanding of what to expect, most have done no wet running at all with their 2026 cars, and thus Sunday in Montreal will truly be a step into the unknown.
So, who has some knowledge and perhaps a potential advantage? Alpine ran at a very wet Silverstone for their January filming day, and Mercedes also had some damp running on the W17’s first outing, although mileage was limited and it was in no way a proper wet test.
Ferrari and Red Bull then did some running in the wet at the Shakedown in Barcelona on a day when others opted not to venture out.
Those were very early days for the 2026 cars. They have been developed a lot since then, and understanding of PU management has also moved on.
However Pirelli’s wet weather 2027 tyre testing programme took place more recently, with the cars closer to current spec. Red Bull (with Isack Hadjar) and Racing Bulls (with both Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad) ran at a soaking Suzuka just after the Japanese Grand Prix, and Lewis Hamilton also undertook a dedicated wet tyre test at Fiorano.
The most recent wet test was with Alpine and Pierre Gasly at Magny-Cours a couple of weeks ago, but that was with a 2025 ‘mule’ car.
What it all adds up to is that a few teams have at least some understanding of how the current cars and tyres behave in the wet, while for others their education will potentially start on Sunday in Montreal.
Speaking on Saturday after Qualifying, McLaren’s Andrea Stella conceded that those who have done at least some wet running will have benefited.
“There’s a few teams that have had the possibility to test and drive in wet conditions,” he said.
“I do think that this is an advantage, because there’s uncertainty in relation to the behaviour of the power unit. We see that, we talk [about it] in pretty much every debrief in dry conditions – after a few events still we talk about power unit exploitation.
“In the wet things deviate even more from what you anticipate, from what you can simulate. So the power unit remains certainly an element of variability that is concerning, and if you have tested with it, you might [know] a little bit more.”
Tyres will of course be the other big story. Pirelli had to develop the 2026 wet tyres through last season with limited running with modified mule cars, which weren’t really representative, so it was a big challenge to get it right.
On Saturday, the top three finishers in the Sprint – who are also the three fastest qualifiers for Sunday’s main event – all admitted that they were expecting a challenging race if it rains.
“The three of us here haven’t experienced the wet this year,” said George Russell. “Kimi and I both drove this wet tyre last year and it wasn’t a very good feeling, to be honest. Ended up a few times through the gravel, and with damage to the car.”
“When you have a thousand horsepower and you have a street circuit, then you need good tyres to go with it,” added reigning World Champion Lando Norris. “I’ve never driven in the rain with these tyres yet, so it’ll be a new situation for me. And I think it’s made even tougher by the fact that it is a street circuit, and you’ve not got a lot of margin for error, and it’s a low-grip track.
“[I’m] excited, could be a lot of chaos, but honestly, at the same time, we don’t sign up to do the chaos. We want the best of everything, and I know Pirelli are working on better tyres. Let’s wait and see how it goes.”
“This is already a track where it’s hard to put temperature on the tyres in the dry,” explained Kimi Antonelli. “So I think tomorrow is going to be cold and wet, and it’s going to be hard to build temperature. Which is the main thing for us, because once you get a temperature, it’s actually not too bad.
“But it’s those first few laps where you’re just sliding around and the tyre is not really working. So yes, it’s not easy, it’s going to be tricky. But let’s see first what the weather is going to be like, because also Miami was meant to rain, and it didn’t.”
With a lack of high-speed corners in Montreal, wet weather specialist Max Verstappen – who sampled the wet in Barcelona back in January – also cited temperature as the key concern.
“[Reaching the temperature window] was already hard enough on a track where you can switch on the tyres, so it’s not going to be easy here,” he said. “Even on slicks, you barely switch them on at the right time. So tomorrow on wet tyres, I think it will be a big struggle for all of us to make it work.”
