The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs kick off a three-game series in Milwaukee tonight, and as the season enters its second full month, I’d like to take stock of how these two teams have performed so far and what we might expect of them the rest of the way. I don’t mean any disrespect by leaving the Cincinnati Reds out of this conversation — I think they’re pretty good, and I think they’ll stick around — but I’m interested, ultimately, in the head to head between Chicago and Milwaukee, as after 32 games, I (still) think those two teams will finish first and second in the division.
The Cubs come into this series in Milwaukee as one of the more impressive teams in the league. They’re 19-13, two games ahead of Cincinnati and three ahead of the Brewers in the National League Central. But it’s not just that they’re 19-13 — it’s who they’ve beaten to get to that point. After losing twice in the Tokyo Series with the Dodgers, the Cubs have won series against the Athletics, Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers again. They split with the Diamondbacks on the league’s first weekend, and their only series losses of the young season, aside from the two-game Tokyo Series, were on the road against the Padres and at home versus the Phillies, both series they lost 2-1. A remarkable statistic: the Cubs had not played a game against a team under .500 until they played the Pirates on Tuesday (a series which they also won), their 30th game of the season.
That the Cubs have done so well against the league’s toughest schedule to date is discouraging if you’re a Brewers fan. How have they managed it?
Veteran bats coming through
The first and most obvious place to look is at Chicago’s splashy new offseason addition, Kyle Tucker. “King Tuck” got off to one of the best starts in baseball, and though he has cooled somewhat, he is still hitting .278/.387/.563 (a 167 OPS+) with eight doubles, eight homers, 28 RBIs, and eight stolen bases without getting caught. He is, simply, a superstar: he only played 78 games in 2024 but had he played the whole season at the level of production he had when he did play, he’d have been right in that discussion with Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson for “who finishes second to Aaron Judge in MVP voting.”
The other big offensive boost has been from Seiya Suzuki, who is essentially the Cubs’ full-time DH now. Suzuki has been a good hitter; he had OPS+ marks of 130 and 137 in 2023 and 2024, very solid numbers. But he’s leveled up in 2025, his fourth season in the United States: he’s so far hitting .295/.365/.625 (a 176 OPS+) with six doubles, nine homers, and 28 RBIs, basically identical production to what Tucker is giving the Cubs.
The Cubs are also getting solid offensive production from some other new sources. Michael Busch, the former top-50 prospect, is looking like a star after a solid rookie season last year. They’re getting wildly productive seasons from both of their catchers: Miguel Amaya has a 123 OPS+ in 17 games and Carson Kelly has an insane .360/.507/.840 batting line in 67 plate appearances (that’s a 277 OPS+, which is better than Aaron Judge).
But the biggest surprise in the Cubs lineup is someone who might step into the villain role that some Brewer fans have been missing since Yadier Molina retired.
The Kid
Pete Crow-Armstrong was a highly touted prospect, someone who scouts thought could be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. But few saw him as a future offensive star; a decent hitter, sure, and someone who could leverage elite speed offensively. He struggled offensively after getting called up in 2024; that excellent defense and baserunning led to solid 2.3 bWAR value, but he hit just .237/.286/.384 in 123 games.
Well, he’s figured something out, and quickly. In 2025, Crow-Armstrong is hitting .266 but to the surprise of many he’s doing so with power. Scouts thought that maybe, eventually, a prime PCA could hit 20 home runs in a season; well, he had six before the calendar flipped to May. He’s also hit 10 doubles already, just three fewer than he had in four times as many games last season, and that speed is still there, as he’s got 12 steals in 13 attempts.
Crow-Armstrong, who is the son of actress Ashley Crow (who played the main character’s mom in the 1994 film Little Big League), has a brashness and swagger that endears him to his home fans but will likely annoy opposing fanbases. It annoys me! This is probably good for the rivalry, but Crow-Armstrong being this good this fast (he leads the Cubs with 1.8 bWAR heading into Friday’s action) is the number one reason the Cubs have been as good as they have been.
How is the pitching?
There are more questions here. Shota Imanaga has been excellent; he’s following his fifth-place Cy Young finish in 2024 with another solid season. There’s some noise, though: Imanaga has a sparkling 2.77 ERA, but his FIP lags far behind, at 4.87. Imanaga got away with an ERA/FIP discrepancy in 2024, but it wasn’t nearly that large. There could be some regression.
Other Cubs starters have been more hit or miss. Jameson Taillon was excellent in a tough-luck loss against the Phillies on Sunday, but he’s been exactly league average on the season (4.01 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.07 FIP). Matthew Boyd has been good but, like Imanaga, has a FIP that’s more than a run higher than his ERA. Ben Brown has struggled. Justin Steele, their on-paper number-one starter, is out for the season. Colin Rea has filled in admirably — he’s allowed only four earned runs in 24 2/3 innings while striking out 21 and walking only five — but Brewers fans know how the Rea experience goes. It giveth, and it taketh away.
The bullpen could be a problem area, too. Closer Ryan Pressly has four saves and a 2.08 ERA but the underlying numbers are alarming: he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out and has a FIP near 5 and WHIP of almost 1.50. The sample size is too small to judge most of them, but the results haven’t been great: the club’s bullpen ERA is 4.64, 23rd in the league (but, of course, better than the Brewers).
How will these two teams compare down the stretch?
The Brewers have had a weird season. Several of their offensive players are performing better than you’d expect: Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, and Rhys Hoskins are all giving significantly more than they did last season, Jackson Chourio has carried the team at times, and Caleb Durbin has steadied the offensive ship at third base. William Contreras hasn’t hit his stride yet, but he’s shown signs.
However, the Brewers are also badly underperforming in a few areas. Garrett Mitchell, before his injury, was bad. Joey Ortiz has been awful. Christian Yelich has run into a few baseballs, but he’s mostly looked bad.
It’s also well known that the Brewers have looked weirdly bad on defense and on the basepaths, places where they’ve excelled in recent seasons and where they kind of need to be good in order to succeed.
On the other side of the ball, Chad Patrick and Jose Quintana have stabilized the starting rotation, Freddy Peralta has been good, Tobias Myers is back, and Brandon Woodruff is right around the corner. But the bullpen hasn’t been good; the numbers are slightly skewed because of a few disastrous games, but Trevor Megill hasn’t looked great, Joel Payamps was a disaster until recently, Bryan Hudson and Elvis Peguero got demoted, Craig Yoho got called up but hasn’t been quite as sharp as some hoped (and had a disastrous outing Thursday against the lowly White Sox), Abner Uribe has good numbers but is always an adventure. Jared Koenig and Nick Mears keep trucking along, but it’s been a shaky group overall.
So, who has the edge?
I think there’s reason to believe the Cubs’ offense will slow down a bit. Carson Kelly is not, as much as his current numbers might suggest, Josh Gibson. Tucker might keep his level of production up, but can Suzuki sustain this next level? Will PCA come back to Earth a bit? Is Busch this good?
I do think that Chicago’s offense is better than I gave it credit for, and if this really is the player that Crow-Armstrong is, then that’s a whole different story. But Milwaukee’s best hitters have yet to really get things going, and I think this gap will close.
On the pitching side, I feel better about Milwaukee. The bullpen situation could go either way, but I have very little faith in Pressly at this point in his career, and there’s not a whole lot to rely on past him. I’d give the edge to Milwaukee. In the rotation, the Cubs might have more innings-eaters, but the loss of Steele hurts, and depth is a problem for them there (as it is for everyone). Milwaukee found a way to steady the ship, and even if they can’t keep relying on Patrick and if Priester is unable to keep getting good results, I think Milwaukee will have the edge in the starting rotation, too.
I think it’s going to be very close. The Cubs have certainly been the better team thus far this season, there’s no doubt about that. What they’ve done so far is truly impressive. But Milwaukee has some easy stuff to fix (hence Pat Murphy’s seeming frustration with his players over the past week — he knows they can do better), and if Yelich and Contreras get going like we know they can, it will make a huge difference.
It should be a fun, entertaining, and passion-filled summer.
