LXXVII – Royals at Padres

These Royals will always keep you guessing. This time last week we were crying about a five-game losing streak and a longer streak of mostly losing games. The Royals would have a players-only meeting later that night before dropping the series finale the next day, when the Royals scored only two runs.

Then Monday came, and the Royals haven’t lost since. Perhaps even more importantly, over this four-game winning streak, the Royals haven’t scored fewer than four runs, and have scored six runs in three of the contests. Even if you toss in the two runs they scored in Sunday’s loss, they’re averaging almost five runs a game since the players-only meeting, with a season average of 3.41 runs per game. Things have been looking up.

But tonight will be a real challenge for the team. Noah Cameron will pitch for the Royals, and he’s been very good, but he hasn’t pitched deep into contests. As the season has gone on, he’s been pulled earlier and earlier in his starts. But the Royals’ bullpen is badly taxed. Taylor Clarke, Sam Long, Daniel Lynch IV, and John Schreiber might be the only relievers available. Schreiber has pitched in two of the last three, Long hasn’t appeared since the Royals activated him from the injured list and was pretty bad before being shut down, Lynch started the season strong but has had command issues of late, and Taylor Clarke has inexplicably not pitched in over a week.

Also, the Padres will be countering with their staff ace, Dylan Cease. The ERA is somewhat high at 4.69, but he has an unsustainably low LOB%; however, FIP, SIERA, and xERA all agree he has pitched much better than his ERA. Over his last six starts, he has an even higher ERA but an even lower FIP than the season numbers. His last two starts were against the Dodgers. In the first, he pitched seven shutout innings, but in the most recent, he gave up six runs in five innings while taking the loss.

In his career, he’s gone 5-6 with a 3.50 ERA in 16 starts against Kansas City. Last year, he gave up three runs in 5.1 innings and took a no-decision in a game the Padres eventually won 11-8 thanks to back-to-back implosions by James McArthur and Will Klein.

There’s honestly no telling how this will go.

Lineups

Mark Canha gets a rare start against a right-hander, and Drew Waters will play in centerfield. I see no evidence of reverse splits in Cease’s numbers, so I’m not sure what’s going on, but Q has more numbers than I do.

I didn’t realize Martín Maldonado was still playing. It’s wild to see him starting in a game in 2025. This marks his third straight season with a below-replacement level WAR.