Five Big 12 games that will shape the CFP

Much like the ACC, the Big 12 has been surrounded by questions of its long-term viability in the shifting landscape of collegiate sports. Commissioner Brett Yormark has been an out-of-the-box thinker is his three years with the Big 12 and the league appears to be strong.

Last season, Arizona State nearly pulled off a major upset of Texas in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, putting the nation on notice that head coach Kenny Dillingham has awoken a sleeping giant.

As the 2025 season approaches, here are five Big 12 games that will shape the CFP.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State | Aug. 23

Farmageddon is going international. These two teams will link up in Dublin, Ireland, in Week 0. Don’t let the early season matchup fool you — this one definitely means something. 

K-State quarterback Avery Johnson is a dual threat, but he was inconsistent last season. In three of the Wildcats’ losses he threw six interceptions combined to just one touchdown. The only loss he played well in was against Iowa State (three touchdowns, 0 INT).

In a world where three losses most likely eliminates a team from the CFP, losing the opener would make for a difficult path forward.

Texas Tech at Utah | Sept. 20

There are plenty of question marks in this one. Texas Tech has become the poster child of game-changing NIL deals. The Red Raiders boast a revamped roster with seven of the top 75 players in ESPN’s transfer portal rankings.

On the other side, Utah flopped last season (5-7, 2-7 Big 12) thanks to a myriad of injuries and the inability to win close games. Head coach Kyle Whittingham is one of the best in the game and its expected the Utes will turn things around in 2025.

Which one of these teams is for real? We’ll find out when the Red Raiders travel to Salt Lake.

Kansas State at Baylor | Oct. 4

This will be a tough road game for Kansas State. Dave Aranda’s Baylor Bears rebounded in 2024, finishing 8-5 with a six-game winning streak to end the year. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson returns, giving Baylor an opportunity to compete for the Big 12 title.

This game starts a difficult stretch for the Wildcats to end the season that features additional road matchups at Kansas and Utah and home games against TCU, Texas Tech and Colorado.

Baylor can secure a big win and prove it belongs in the conversation for the Big 12 championship.

Arizona State at Utah | Oct. 11

By this time, we should know whether or not Utah is turning things around or headed for another clunker of a season. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt was held to a season-low in Big 12 play for pass completions and passing yards in last season’s 27-19 win over Utah.

Utah’s defense returns 10 of 22 players who started a game last season. Despite everything that went wrong for the Utes last season, their defense still ranked in the top 30 nationally. 

No matter where Utah is at come Oct. 11, this should be a difficult one for Arizona State.

October 18

This might be cheating, but Oct. 18 is a scintillating week in the Big 12. Trendy favorite Texas Tech travels to defending champion Arizona State, Utah and BYU face off in Provo and TCU hosts Baylor.

Translation: there will be movement. All six teams figure to be in the top half of the standings. This could be a week that separates some teams from the rest of the pack.