BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells: Who and what to watch

The 2025 tennis season is only two months old, but there has already been a full year’s worth of surprises. From the controversial suspension of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, to Madison Keys winning her first major title at the Australian Open, to a stomach virus that took out much of the field at Acapulco last week and the wild-card debacle surrounding Venus Williams, there has been no shortage of headlines.

Now the respective tours head to the California desert for the 1000-level (the highest after majors and the year-end finals) BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, starting off the Sunshine Double portion of the calendar with the Miami Open up next. While we can’t get to every storyline worth watching — apologies to anyone looking for thoughts on who might have a heel turn like Danielle Collins did in Melbourne — these are the biggest questions entering the 2025 BNP Paribas Open before the main draw gets underway Wednesday.

Who will step up with Jannik Sinner out?

Before we dig in here, it’s worth noting Sinner’s unbelievable stretch since the start of 2024. During the past 14 months, the Italian has won three major titles (2024 and 2025 Australian Open and 2024 US Open), three 1000-level events and the 2024 ATP Finals. He is currently serving a three-month doping suspension and is out of action until May. And yet still, he has nearly a 3,000 point lead in the rankings over everyone else. He reached the semifinals at Indian Wells in 2024, took the title in Miami and would have easily been the favorite to win both.

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Sinner’s absence this year leaves a massive opportunity for several others — and the most obvious is Carlos Alcaraz. The current world No. 3 is the two-time defending champion and seems to thrive in the California sun. He’s had an inconsistent season so far, losing in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and in Qatar but winning the Rotterdam title. Being at a familiar site like Indian Wells could be exactly what he needs to get back on track and take over the tour.

World No. 2 Alexander Zverev could also be a contender. He lost to Sinner in the Australian Open final and has since gone 4-3 — but has won three 1000-level hard-court titles in his career, including most recently at the Paris Masters in November. He’s a two-time Indian Wells quarterfinalist, including last year, and is capable of going even further. Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked sixth, has had a challenging season and has never loved the conditions at Indian Wells (both on the court and with the air conditioning inside) but he reached the final in 2023 and should always be considered a threat at hard-court events.

Not to mention, 2022 champion and Southern California native Taylor Fritz played the best tennis of his career in the final months of 2024 and will be motivated to do well in front of a home crowd and at a place where he’s won before. He reached the final at the US Open and the ATP Finals and lost to Sinner in both events, but he’s proven he can beat almost everyone else. He had a disappointing third round finish at the Australian Open and had to withdraw from Acapulco with an abdominal injury, but if he’s healthy, he’s certainly one to watch.

And, of course, don’t forget about that guy named Novak Djokovic. He’s still pretty good. (More on him below)

Will the season’s trend of unexpected winners continue on the women’s side?

After several years of unpredictability, it looked as if a group of elite players had emerged atop the women’s game, most notably Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. At the start of 2025, that trio — who are currently the top 3-ranked players in the world — seemed to be the favorites for every tournament. The season opened with Sabalenka nabbing the trophy at the Brisbane Open and Gauff leading the United States team over Swiatek’s Poland in the United Cup final.

But then the Australian Open happened and Madison Keys, who turned 30 last month, showed everyone how remarkable the depth of talent is on the WTA Tour. She had a staggering fortnight, beating Swiatek in the semifinals and two-time defending champion Sabalenka in the final, and living up to the potential many had seen in her well over a decade ago. And more than that, it seemed to remind other players of their own capabilities as well.

Since Keys’ surprising victory in Melbourne, there has been a different champion every week, including during the two 1000-level events, in which Amanda Anisimova (Doha) and 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva (Dubai) won the biggest titles of their young careers. Other winners include Belinda Bencic, who recently returned from maternity leave, and Ekaterina Alexandrova, as well as Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro, who both collected new hardware on Sunday with statement-making routs in the Austin and Merida finals, respectively.

It’s not just that the current “Big-ish Three” haven’t won tournaments, they were hardly even a factor during the Middle East swing. Sabalenka won one match in both 1000-level events, and Gauff was upset in her opening matches at both. Swiatek fared better, and reached the semis in Doha and the quarters in Dubai. And if anyone knows how to win at Indian Wells, it’s her. She’s the defending champion and also won the title in 2022. And all three will certainly be eager to turn things around and get back to their winning ways at Indian Wells.

But of course, Keys, who hasn’t played since Australia, is capable of winning and is more confident than ever. Others, like Anisimova, Andreeva, Pegula, Navarro and even Bencic or 2023 champion Elena Rybakina, could do it as well. So, yes, it’s going to be very interesting and should give a true vibe check to the state of the season.

How will Novak Djokovic fare?

This might be the biggest question of all entering the tournament. The 24-time major champion had to retire from his semifinal match against Zverev at the Australian Open after the first set due to a hamstring injury, and has played one event since. Prior to the Qatar Open, Djokovic said he was “almost 100%” but after losing in the first round in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini, he was seen limping into the airport, sparking speculation about his injury. As of now, he remains in the Indian Wells draw and will be joined by his coach Andy Murray. Djokovic received a first-round bye, then will play against either a qualifier or Nick Kyrgios.

But, and this is worth mentioning, we are talking about Novak Djokovic here and there’s a reason he’s won 24 Slam titles and 40 Masters 1000-level trophies, including five at Indian Wells. While he hasn’t had the results over the past 14 months that he’s become accustomed to — winning Olympic gold marked his lone title last season — he still is one of the best in the sport and should always be considered a legitimate contender. And not that he needs any more motivation, but another title would make him just the third man in the Open Era to win 100 tour-level singles trophies.

Can an American win the title?

Yes, absolutely. The operative word here is “could,” but it’s possible, and maybe even realistic.

On the women’s side, there are several who could do it. For the first time since 2003, there are three American women ranked inside the top five — Gauff, Pegula and Keys — and all three will have the support of the crowd and have won 1000-level tournaments, or higher, before. Navarro (No. 8), reigning Miami Open champion Danielle Collins (No. 14), and Anisimova (No. 18) are all also in the top 20 and can beat almost anyone on their best days.

But despite success virtually everywhere else, no American woman has won at Indian Wells since Serena Williams in 2001. Will this be the year those fortunes get reversed?

As for the men, Fritz, the world No. 4, certainly leads the charge but several others also deserve mention here. Tommy Paul (No. 11), Ben Shelton (No. 12), and Frances Tiafoe (No. 17) thrive in front of the home crowds and have all been to major semifinals before so know what it takes to win on a big stage. Reilly Opelka, the former world No. 17 and current No. 114, continues his return from a lengthy injury absence and could also surprise. He reached the final at Brisbane to open the year and recorded a win over Djokovic in the quarterfinals.

Can anyone win the elusive Sunshine Double?

Just eleven players — seven men and four women — have achieved the feat. The list is truly a who’s who of tennis history and Djokovic, Roger Federer and Steffi Graf are the only ones who have done it multiple times.

Swiatek accomplished it most recently, in 2022 during her record-setting 37-match win streak. But while she made it look easy at the time, it is anything but. With just days between the final in Indian Wells and the start of Miami, playing in both requires traveling 2,600 miles and adapting between two different climates. Staying healthy and focused is a challenge for even the best players.

Alcaraz came close in 2023 by reaching the Miami semifinals, but simply ran out of gas in the third set against Sinner. He’s a far more experienced player now, and may be better prepared if in that situation today.

Could Alcaraz or Swiatek do it in 2025? Frankly, no one has quite shown the consistency this season that would be needed to pull it off. But one tournament can change everything.