Reds playoff odds reach a 2025 high as they face a big test

When the 2025 regular season began, Fangraphs projected the Cincinnati Reds playoff odds at 20.2%. That was based on multiple projection systems and what those were projecting out there for all of the teams across baseball for the rest of the season based on their remaining schedule, injuries, etc.

That 20.2% playoff odds number was the high water mark for Cincinnati until Sunday afternoon after they completed a 3-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Finishing the day at 56-50, it moved the team to six games over the .500 mark for the first time all year. It put a little more space between them and the now 4th place St. Louis Cardinals. The win kept the Reds one game out of the final wild card spot. And it also bumped up their playoff odds to 21.2% according to Fangraphs.

That high water mark takes Cincinnati into a series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Riding a 4-game winning streak the Reds will welcome in the 61-45, 1st place in the National League West Dodgers for a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park. Los Angeles has lost two in a row, dropping the final two games of their road series in Boston against the Red Sox. They’ve been slumping of late, going 5-13 since the 4th of July when they began a series against Houston.

Still, even in a bit of a rough patch, the Dodgers have players up and down their lineup who can be game changers. The Reds get to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-7, 2.55 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (1-1 in eight starts with a 2.75 ERA), and Shohei Ohtani (12 innings in six starts so far, 1.50 ERA). Two of the three starters have been limited due to injury this year, but when they’ve been on the mound they’ve been quite good. And Yamamoto has been one of the best pitchers in the league.

With just a few days left until the trade deadline is here, the Reds are riding high. The players have been speaking up on camera about how they want the front office to go out and get them help to make a playoff push. Cincinnati’s series against the Dodgers could play into that. The deadline is on the 31st at 5pm ET. The Reds play that day but the game doesn’t begin until after that, so it’s the series against Los Angeles that will take the front office to the deadline.

Two or three games could make a difference. Moving to 58-50 or 59-50 would drastically improve their playoff chances versus moving to 56-52 or 56-53 heading into the final 24 hours of the deadline.

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