Over/under predictions for MLB stars: Raleigh, Judge, Skenes, more

We’re just over three-quarters of the way into the 2025 MLB season, and some stars are on pace for some amazing final numbers.

Cal Raleigh is making history with every swing of the bat — hitting his 49th homer Sunday to break Salvador Perez’s record for most home runs in a season by a catcher. Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are also showing why they are considered the premier sluggers in the sport. And aces Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are putting up incredible numbers.

We asked our MLB experts to decide which of these players will keep up their current paces — and which are due to slow down during the stretch run.

Cal Raleigh is on pace for 61 homers. Will he go over/under that total?

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Jeff Passan: Under 61, but not by much. The Seattle Mariners have 31 games remaining. Raleigh has had two distinct 31-game spans this year in which he has hit at least a dozen home runs — the number he needs to get to 61 — so it’s possible. Now that he has passed Salvador Perez for the most in a season by a catcher, Raleigh can target the Mariners’ franchise record of 56 set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997.

David Schoenfield: His pace has slowed since the All-Star break — which isn’t surprising because he was on a 64-homer pace at the time. He has had just one day off since the break, and the strikeouts have piled up in August, including a five-strikeout game and several three-strikeout games. Is Raleigh finally getting worn down from playing nearly every game? In other words: Under 61.

Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are on pace for 55-plus home runs. Who will win the National League home run crown, and with how many?

Jesse Rogers: Schwarber will win the home run title, hitting 56 this season. He has historically slugged well in September and this year will be no exception. In his career, he has produced his second-highest slugging percentage (.521) in September, trailing only June. Ohtani is also good late in the year, but this is turning into a very special season for the Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter. He’s slugging .577 against left-handed pitching, which will translate into a couple more homers off lefties in September and be the difference in the home run race.

Buster Olney: Schwarber will win the title, but he’ll reach 59. He has figured out how to hit left-handers — stand in the box, take the HBPs and square up everything — and has absurdly even splits, with a .946 OPS against right-handers and .943 against lefties. And as strong as he has been this season, he’s just getting warmed up, with 20 homers in his past 45 games.

Aaron Judge leads the majors with 7.3 WAR. What will his final total be?

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Jorge Castillo: Judge has quietly gone cold — by his standards — after the All-Star break, with a .193/.346/.398 slash line and five home runs in 24 games. He has insisted his flexor strain, which cost him 10 games on the injured list, isn’t affecting him, but it’s easy to wonder if the dropoff and injury are related. Chances are, Judge won’t play right field every day for the New York Yankees when he’s cleared to return to the field, so that would limit his WAR potential. Let’s go with 8.7 as the final number.

Bradford Doolittle: That 7.3 figure is the Fangraphs’ version of WAR, and its projected pace tool has him landing at 9.1. He’ll have to stay off the IL to hit that, and the pace doesn’t reflect that he might have to DH more often than not. That costs him positional value and the chance to add to his fielding value. He has also looked rusty since coming off his last IL stay. So, considering all of that, I’ll say Fangraphs’ pace is a tad optimistic and I’ll go with 8.9 for the final number … which is pretty good.

Nick Kurtz has an OPS of 1.026. Will he end the season as the rare rookie with an OPS over 1.000?

Doolittle: This could go either way. Of 497 players with at least 75 plate appearances, Kurtz is one of just five with an OPS over 1.000. It’s encouraging that his number isn’t inflated by his homer rate; he can hit. If you remove homers from everyone’s record, the Athletics’ first baseman still has a top-25 OPS.

Another good sign is that he has shown no home-road split. He just hits everywhere he goes except … when a lefty is on the mound. Conquering southpaws is Kurtz’s last frontier. Of the Athletics’ 11 remaining opponents (including Boston and Garrett Crochet twice), all of them rank in the top half in terms of batters faced by lefty starters. I’m guessing Kurtz’s Rookie of the Year season won’t feature an OPS over 1.000.

Schoenfield: Rare is an understatement. The only qualifying rookies since World War II with a 1.000 OPS were Albert Pujols and Aaron Judge. Kurtz should reach the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify and, yes, he’ll finish with a 1.000 OPS. How? His OBP is over .500 (!) in the second half as his walk rate continues to climb and pitchers increasingly pitch carefully to him. Kurtz is not just going to be one of the best hitters in the game — he already is.

Tarik Skubal is on pace for 247 strikeouts. Will he reach the mark?

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Passan: Yes. Skubal is at 200 strikeouts through 25 starts. He has at least six starts remaining — possibly seven if the schedule lines up properly — and he has historically improved toward the end of the season. His September strikeout rate is his second highest of any month, and as he looks to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000, finishing with a flourish will be paramount.

Rogers: Yes — but barely. There’s a world in which the Detroit Tigers clinch their division so early that they back off Skubal’s innings a tad over his final few starts, right? Then again, he’s bound to have a few outings totaling more than the eight strikeouts he averages per start. That would get him to the 250 mark by late in the month. And the Tigers are likely to have a first-round bye in the postseason — meaning Skubal can let it fly in September, knowing he’ll have a week off before taking the ball in Game 1 of the division round.

Paul Skenes leads the majors with a 2.07 ERA. Will his final mark be higher or lower?

Olney: I will say lower because it only makes sense for the Pittsburgh Pirates to give him as much rest as possible for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh isn’t playing for anything, but Skenes has a shot to win the National League Cy Young Award — and you’d assume that the Pirates will do everything they can to make that happen. He’ll close the season somewhere around 180 innings.

Castillo: A smidge over for two reasons: 2.07 is such a low number, and Skenes hasn’t been as sharp recently. The right-hander has given up 10 runs in five starts in August, good for a 3.21 ERA over 28 innings — with his most recent start on Sunday his best of the month, seven innings of three-hit ball. As Buster wrote, the Pirates will likely limit his workload down the stretch, so a significant increase won’t happen.

Freddy Peralta is at 15 wins. Will he be the first 20-game winner since 2023?

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Doolittle: With Peralta failing to get win No. 16 on Saturday, he’s looking at an uphill battle. The Milwaukee Brewers might wrap up the top seed early-ish, so they wouldn’t be pushing Peralta during the final week. But let’s say he gets six more starts. He’s earning wins at a rate of .556 per start, so that’s 3.3 over six starts. Not enough! Peralta needs to win five of those last six starts, or all five if he gets only five more chances. I think he’ll get 19 wins. The 20-game winner drought will continue.

Schoenfield: I’ll say yes. Though we always complain about the lack of 20-game winners, we had one in 2023, one in 2022, one in 2021, two in 2019, two in 2018, three in 2016, two in 2015 and three in 2014. Yes, it’s becoming rarer, but we usually get at least one. So here’s hoping Peralta is the one.