Quick viewing guide to CFB’s biggest Week 1 ever, plus Penn State pressure

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The Watch Grid: A historically loaded Week 1

Hey, it’s Week 1, with games starting in a surprisingly small number of hours. That’s fun. East coasters, we get rush-hour football for some reason.

Here’s a schedule guide I’m going to include in here each Thursday. It’s a version of a weekly preview thing I’ve been doing for the past decade, and I’m excited to assemble this (much prettier, tbh) version for hundreds of thousands of Until Saturdayers. I hope it’s handy!

Two notes:

It won’t necessarily always seek to present the (technically) biggest games, but will instead focus on viewer intrigue. Sometimes, these games are likely blowouts, but still pair two teams that are curiosities within their own contexts. Several such cases in Week 1.
And I’ll try to fill a worthy quadbox within each time slot, but the schedule won’t always cooperate.

As for the question going around these days, the one about whether this is the biggest Week 1 ever: Yeah. Texas-Ohio State, the biggest Week 1 game ever, almost makes that case all by itself. It’s also the first-ever Week 1 to feature three games between top-10 teams.

OK, too brief. Seth Emerson explains in more detail. One pull:

There have only been three other weekends since 1978 with three top-10 games, and the other three involved October and November dates. (And Week 0 doesn’t count here, but c’mon. 2025 having one of the biggest Week 0 games ever adds to this tally in a spiritual way, at least.)

Why’s this Week 1 so unusually large? One part is coincidence. These games were mostly scheduled so far in advance, and think of all the years when Miami-Notre Dame would’ve been juiceless, for instance. Or if the Canes had happened to rank No. 11, ruining the three-games stat.

The other part is about keeping the boss happy. TV networks want eyeballs immediately, rather than letting coaches do the thing they’d done for a century: slowly piling up wins against jobbers. (So much for 1891 Michigan opening against Ann Arbor High School.) Also from Seth’s story:

“It’s going to be a great opening weekend, which is really what the leagues want — and what our TV partners certainly want,” Miami athletic director Dan Radakovich said. “In some years, it works out that way. There have been other years where it really hasn’t.”

Coaches have also come around to this head-first scheduling. Nick Saban long wanted Alabama to open against credible opponents, giving his players a target throughout the offseason. As former Saban assistant Brent Key, whose Yellow Jackets are in Boulder tomorrow, told Seth:

“I love opening up with an opponent like this. The opportunity to go on the road, it really dials you and it locks you in. And we know the sense of urgency as coaches, but it also takes now that sense of urgency with the kids and the players, and really puts it in a premium.”

Oh right, and the third part is Bill Belichick. The Labor Day night game is when battle-weary CFB fans and random casual viewers typically combine to generate massive constellations of wild proclamations about everything happening on the field.

This year, with some of us having spent the offseason irritated by the Belichick thing and with Red Sox fans materializing to weigh in on ACC football, Monday night will also inspire interstellar discourse about everything happening off the field at UNC — and I don’t just mean the head coach’s dating life.

More Week 1:

Austin Mock’s (newly remodeled) system has its four bets bets of the week, including Ohio State -2.5.
“The most hyped, publicized, talked-about, tweeted-about high school athlete of the social media age” is about to make his first start that actually matters. Everything that led to all eyes landing on Arch Manning.
Which Tigers have the real Death Valley? Clemson’s claim is older, but LSU’s backstory is weirder, which is just as important. It’s a whole thing.
Fan survey: In the preseason Hope-O-Meter, Louisville and Kentucky appear at opposite ends of the vibes spectrum. Now to see whether the gods amuse themselves by having the cheerful Cards lose to their grumpy rival in November.
As an Atlanta youth, my two favorite athletes were Deion Sanders and Michael Vick. Tonight against Towson, the latter begins his coaching career as the HC at HBCU Norfolk State, near his hometown. Here’s how it all came together.

Quick Snaps

2025 Countdown: Big Ten intrigue in every tier

The B1G won’t start its season until tonight, which means the final conference “preview” in this newsletter’s preseason countdown is technically arriving on time. 😎

I didn’t attempt to scrupulously detail both Pac-12 teams during the countdown’s Pac-12 “preview” a few weeks ago, so I certainly won’t barrage you right now with roster minutiae on all 18,000 Big Ten teams.

However, this conference might have the country’s three most interesting teams, and as you’ll see right away, to be interesting is not necessarily good. Let’s take this tier by tier.

The bottom

Last year, 1-11 Purdue was the worst power-conference team in the country, according to computers, win totals and eyeballs. The Boilers’ only win came against 4-8 FCS Indiana State, and their high point was an overtime loss against Illinois. Their average game was a 40-16 loss.

And then the roster, such as it was, departed.

This past offseason, as Barry Odom took on this turnaround after his rapid rebuild of UNLV, the Boilermakers lost 56 transfers while bringing in 54, per 247Sports. (For reference, Deion Sanders’ first offseason at Colorado had 53 transfers out.) This kind of exodus always starts a debate on whether losing experience from a one-win team is actually a problem, but for our purposes here, it’s a reason to see what happens.

There’s a scenario in which this team leaps toward .500 and Odom is officially a serial renovator. Then again, this season could plumb even further depths if the million new pieces don’t fit. (BetMGM win total: 3.5.) Either way, I’m keeping an eye out for the Boilermakers on the scoreboard ticker.

The middle

During the 10-year Big Ten West era (2014-2023), Wisconsin averaged having the country’s 31st-hardest schedule, per TeamRankings. That certainly wasn’t the only reason for Madison’s eight bowl-winning seasons in that era (winning bowls means beating teams from elsewhere, after all), but it was one of them.

This year, UW faces FBS’ toughest schedule, per Phil Steele, Massey and others. It’s also been ranked No. 4 by SP+ and No. 10 by FPI. Much harder than No. 31.
The Badgers host No. 3 Ohio State, No. 12 Illinois, Iowa and Washington — and travel to play No. 7 Oregon, No. 8 Alabama, No. 14 Michigan, No. 20 Indiana and Minnesota. Last year, those nine teams combined to go 69-19 against everyone besides each other (and 4-0 against Wisconsin).

It’s not an ideal time for Luke Fickell (12-13 in his two full UW seasons) to enter the season on a warming seat. The Badgers enter at 12th among B1G teams in the Massey computer composite.

The top

You’re telling me there’s a team that returns just about the entire offense from a squad that was a play or two away from the title game … and added three transfer WRs to its weakest position group … and poached a title-winning defensive coordinator from its primary rival  … yet isn’t the betting favorite to win its own conference?

Sure, that says a lot about reigning champ Ohio State, long the sport’s safest stock. On the other hand, I keep thinking this: The only reason not to have Penn State as your preseason No. 1 is … James Franklin’s infamous 1-15 record against top-five teams.

It’s a gruesome stat, yeah. But does it matter that Penn State was usually the underdog in those games? Does it matter that Franklin’s Nittany Lions have the country’s seventh-best record as a favorite since 2015, rarely losing games they shouldn’t?

How many schools would instantly trade places with a 10-win machine that won two CFP games last year? (“But those were against Boise State and SMU, so they don’t count as big wins,” reply fans of teams that probably didn’t beat teams as good as Boise State or SMU.)

Here’s where I paste the note that’s become part of Franklin’s bio: Tom Osborne fell short for 21 years before winning Nebraska a title. To whatever degree it’s relevant, Franklin’s entering his 12th at Penn State.

He’s done an excellent, if not yet elite, job. But due to the power of narrative in a sport where you are what 20-year-olds believe you to be, Franklin having this loaded of a roster (and more of a known quantity at QB than almost any other contender) brings one question to mind. It might be the defining question of this season’s national title race: If not now, then when?

That’s it. The offseason is over. See you on Sunday morning. Email me at untilsaturday@theathletic.com about whatever. Let’s get it.

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