Match Details
Prediction
Man City 3 – 1 Man United
Recent Form
Manchester City approaches this Manchester derby with imperious form, unbeaten in their opening three Premier League fixtures and extending a run of 18 league games without defeat under Pep Guardiola. They dismantled Chelsea 4-0 at home on August 17, with Erling Haaland’s hat-trick and Kevin De Bruyne’s two assists showcasing ruthless efficiency amid 68% possession. This was followed by a 2-1 away win at Tottenham on August 24, grinding out a result despite Spurs’ pressure (xG 1.5 to 1.8) thanks to Rodri’s midfield mastery and a late Phil Foden winner. Their latest, a 3-2 home thriller against Arsenal on August 31, saw City come from behind with Haaland’s brace, dominating corners (9 to 5) but exposing minor defensive lapses. Averaging 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, City’s home record at the Etihad is formidable (unbeaten in last 12 there), but injuries to key players like John Stones have tested squad depth. Guardiola’s possession-based system remains elite, but United’s counter-threat could exploit transitions if City overcommit.
Manchester United, meanwhile, sits mid-table with four points from three, showing flashes under Rúben Amorim but struggling for consistency. They started with a 1-0 home win over Fulham on August 17, Bruno Fernandes’ free-kick securing three points in a low-possession (42%) grind. A 2-2 draw away at Liverpool on August 24 highlighted resilience, with Marcus Rashford’s equalizer amid 48% ball control and gritty defending from Lisandro Martínez. However, a 0-3 home defeat to Newcastle on August 31 exposed frailties, conceding three from set-pieces despite generating 1.4 xG. Averaging 1 goal scored and 1.7 conceded, United’s away form is a concern (no wins in last three roads), but Amorim’s 3-4-3 has injected energy via Garnacho’s pace. With injuries mounting, they face a daunting Etihad trip, but derby spirit could fuel an upset if City slip early—expect fireworks, with City’s quality likely prevailing.
Man City Last 5 League Matches
Manchester City’s last five Premier League outings exemplify Guardiola’s tactical mastery, with four wins and one draw underscoring their dominance and adaptability. The recent 3-2 home victory over Arsenal on August 31 was a statement, with 65% possession and nine corners fueling Haaland’s brace via two assists (De Bruyne maestro), no reds but two yellows in a high-stakes clash that highlighted comeback resilience. This followed a 2-1 away grind at Tottenham on August 24, holding 45% ball and four corners for Foden’s winner, weathering Spurs’ pressure with minimal cards.
The season opener demolished Chelsea 4-0 at home on August 17, overwhelming 68% possession, seven corners, and three assists while forcing a red. From the prior season’s tail, a 3-1 home win over West Ham featured 62% control and eight corners, while the 1-1 away draw at Liverpool balanced 42% possession with seven corners and one assist each. Overall, City averages 2.6 goals scored and 1 conceded, with 60% possession and superior set-pieces (average 7 corners). Assists (9 total) from De Bruyne and Foden, yellows (12) controlled. Stones’ absence strains defense, but home invincibility (three wins in last three at Etihad) positions them as favorites, though fine-tuning transitions will counter United’s counters.
Man United Last 5 League Matches
Manchester United’s last five Premier League matches under Amorim reveal a team in flux, blending spirited fight with defensive inconsistencies, yielding one win, two draws, and two losses. The disheartening 0-3 home loss to Newcastle on August 31 exposed set-piece woes, with 48% possession and five corners yielding zero assists as the Magpies capitalized twice, three yellows reflecting frustration without a red. This came after a valiant 2-2 draw away at Liverpool on August 24, balancing 48% possession and four corners for Rashford’s assist equalizer, forcing a Reds red but conceding late.
The opener secured a 1-0 home win over Fulham on August 17, gritty at 42% possession and six corners with Fernandes’ solo assist. From last season’s close, a 1-1 home draw with Arsenal featured 55% possession but three corners, a United red balanced by one assist each, while the 1-2 away loss at Chelsea showed 45% ball with four corners amid fight. Overall, United averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 48% possession and average set-pieces (average 5 corners). Assists (3 total) from Fernandes and Rashford, yellows (13) fiery. Martínez’s solidity helps, but away woes (one win in last four roads) loom large at the Etihad, where derby’s intensity may spark but City’s quality likely overwhelms.
Team News & Injuries
Man City Injuries & Suspensions
John Stones – Thigh injury (expected return mid-September 2025)
Manuel Akanji – Ankle strain (expected return late September 2025)
Mateo Kovačić – Muscle injury (expected return early October 2025)
Oscar Bobb – Long-term knee (expected return November 2025)
Kyle Walker – Minor knock (doubtful)
Man United Injuries & Suspensions
Luke Shaw – Hamstring injury (expected return October 2025)
Tyrell Malacia – Knee issue (long-term)
Kobbie Mainoo – Ankle knock (expected return mid-September 2025)
Harry Maguire – Calf strain (doubtful)
André Onana – Fitness concern (available)
Head-to-Head (H2H) Record & Summary
H2H Detailed Analysis
Manchester City has lorded over the last five Manchester derbies, winning all with an aggregate 11-3 scoreline, averaging 2.8 goals per game while monopolizing possession (average 60%) and set-pieces (36 corners to 20). Guardiola’s side thrives at the Etihad, unbeaten in last six home derbies, as in the 3-0 thrashing on October 2023 with 65% possession, eight corners, and two assists (De Bruyne orchestrating) dismantling United’s press, xG 2.4-0.5. The closest contest was United’s 1-2 home loss, where 52% possession and five corners yielded Fernandes’ assist but a red shifted momentum, allowing Haaland’s winner.
Amorim’s pragmatic shift contrasts Ten Hag’s chaos in the 0-3 away humiliation (nine corners conceded, two City assists), while the 2-1 City home win balanced trends with one assist each. Key moments include Rashford’s Old Trafford stunner and Foden’s derby brace. Factors like United’s injury-riddled defense (Shaw out) amplify City’s threat, with Etihad’s roar and Haaland’s record (six goals in last four derbies) favoring the hosts—expect City’s 1.6 average assists to dismantle, though United’s grit could snag a consolation.
Predicted Lineups
Man City Predicted Lineup
Formation: 4-3-3
Players: Ederson (GK); Nunes (RB), Dias (CB), Gvardiol (CB), Grealish (LB); Rodri (DM), De Bruyne (CM), Bernardo (CM); Doku (RW), Haaland (ST), Foden (LW).
Man United Predicted Lineup
Formation: 3-4-3
Players: Onana (GK); Mazraoui (RCB), Martínez (CB), De Ligt (LCB); Dalot (RM), Casemiro (CM), Mainoo (CM), Shaw (LM); Garnacho (RW), Fernandes (AM), Rashford (LW).
