We’ve reached the quarter mark of the season for most teams, and it’s time to take stock of the landscape. Preseason polls are particularly dumb; we should have some data points, no? Unfortunately, owing to a paucity of quality early games this season, we’ve somehow managed to have teams with three and four games under their belt, and very little idea of how all the parts fit together.
So, we’ll have to do our best here during Bye Week 1 for most of the nation’s Top 25. (Here are the final results for 2024, if you’re curious).
This is not a power poll. It is not biased by preseason polls (to the extent that I can manage). The criteria are nebulous, far-ranging, and capricious — strength of schedule, bad and good coaching, injuries, exigent circumstances, home/away results, defense or lack thereof, offense or lack thereof, line play, power poll-ishness, can you cover a spread (Vegas is pretty smart about how good a team is), head-to-head where possible or prudent, and my own lying eyeballs.
Right off the jump, do I think this is any way a reasonable ordinal ranking of teams in the country as of this writing? Of course not. Even less when the smoke clears are we apt to find Vanderbilt among the Top 5 (we hope). And there’s little doubt that not every team ranked below another one would lose on the field. But all you can do is beat the teams on your schedule, play well in all three phases, and then see how the chips fall.
LSU’s offense is very sick. We knew that the running game would be trash, and that Nuss was Captain Yolo. But there are few gamebreakers on the outside, or at least any that have emerged. And, yes, we knew the secondary had a lot of potential. But the front seven has really elevated their game and that allowed the Tigers to notch two P4 wins, one on the road. This is just a better version of Texas. Like the Horns, I don’t think the Tigers are going to hold up in SEC play, but they do have the resume for now (even if ‘Bammer Sleeper Agents Billie and Dabo are doing their damnedest to ruin it).
Speaking of sick offenses, Auburn still can’t throw the ball. But they are running very effectively. Huge questions in the secondary and whether those lines have been thoroughly tested by a B12 team and some non-conference trash. Alabama, meanwhile, has everyone holding their breath — the offense will show up, or at least the passing game will. And they’ve been a lot tougher in the past two contests. But like the Barn, do we trust those lines in SEC play? Most ‘Bama fans would be 50-50 at best. Road play and consistency are still terrifying coin tosses too. But when they’re on? That passing attack can smoke anyone in the country. The kicking game not missing a beat has been a great surprise in the early season. I was high on OU before the season began. They’ve mostly delivered, despite being good for a few crippling boneheaded plays a game. And because Mateer is throwing a billion times a night, the rushing attack has sadly taken a bit of a backseat. It’s a very good team, as Auburn will find out on Saturday, but it’s not one that’s been truly tested defensively either, nor one that’s had to play away from Norman in any real sense. Can Mateer actually hold up his end of the bargain if Oklahoma needs points against a quality offense? Meanwhile Georgia is Georgia in results, but not in optics. The secondary is positively putrid, the lines aren’t where they need to be, they’re making too many mistakes, the backfield is pedestrian, no one on the outside scares you, and Great Value Saban’s game preparation isn’t up to its usual snuff. Beating Tennessee in Neyland was funny as hell though.
Much that we can say about LSU Tigers defensively we can say of the Hurricanes, who are infinitely better this year. But what has been a real change is that Carson Beck has looked like a very competent QB after breaking free of Bobo’s clutches. Georgia Tech isn’t the prettiest team, but Brent Key doesn’t need to be pretty to win rock fights. In a conference that doesn’t want to hit, he’s determined to plow over opponents. The passing game is going to let them down, though. You can see it from a mile away. Vanderbilt is Georgia Tech’s less talented cousin in this respect, but what they lack in crootin’ rankings they make up for with a highly efficient and obnoxious passing game that nibbles you to death. They’ve also notched B2B road wins over power conference teams. They’re legit. Can we say the same of Mizzou? You worry about any SEC defense that gets pimp-slapped for a half at home by Kansas (looking at your shoddy defense here too, Ole Miss). Pribula has been a great upgrade under center, but he’s not played a secondary of note either. The running back corps is ridiculously deep, with seven guys getting snaps. Mississippi State’s secondary has greatly improved, and the offense was always good. But the deficiencies in the front four could kill them come conference time. Much improved, but how much? Maybe Lebby isn’t a disaster after all.
Iowa State doesn’t have quite the dynamic offense of last season, but the defense is worlds better, and they’re especially better at getting after the quarterback. It shows. Unlike other B12 contenders who look the part, they’re actually battle-tested too. Speaking of, are Utah and Texas Tech for real this season? Tech bought a Top 25 team, while Utah finally grew up on defense and got a lot more explosive on offense. They answer that question against one another this weekend. Baylor can drop a truckload of points on your head, but can the front four stop a concerted rushing attack? Auburn bullied them at home with the benefit of an entire offseason to prepare.
You know what you’re getting with Ohio State: Talent everywhere with a cheesy schedule that lets them improve for the first two months of the season. They didn’t look great against the Longhorns, and I don’t think Sayin padding his stats against the likes of Grambling have answered many questions. But, unlike Arch, he’s not hurting his team either. What do the Buckeyes really have here? Texas’ offense was hardly a challenge. You can say even less of Penn State. The defense has been great, sure. But they’ve played not a soul, and Drew Allar has looked even more mid than usual. You can almost taste the perennial heartbreak coming when the Nittany Lions get punched for the first time.
There is a quartet of intriguing teams at the bottom of the list, and they’re all distinguished by looking like world beaters against woeful schedules: Illinois, Indiana, Oregon and USC. Weirdly, I think the Pac 12 emigres are the best of this bunch. Not that Oklahoma State is great or anything, but dropping a near 70-burger on any major conference team is impressive, and Oregon could have made it worse. But it is the Trojans who’ve piqued my interest the most. The defensive line is superb, Maiava is dealing, and the Men of Troy aren’t killing themselves with second-half implosions. We sort out the Hoosiers-Illini this weekend, but the Ducks-Trojans may be more important for the conference and national picture.
FEAR THE BEAR. I’ve been telling you all offseason, and I repeat now: Cal is actually legit. They always had the defense, but now they have a quarterback and a competent offensive coordinator. Leaving the West Coast, and testing the true freshman, will reveal how good Cal actually is. But for now, they look the part because they are the part.
Florida State – Miami, once the premiere game in the country, finally has some juice this year. As impressive as the Canes have been, FSU has perhaps impressed even more. Coaching matters, as we see with Castellanos’ rejuvenation and new defensive schemes…but the Jimmies and Joes matter more: You can’t fake line play, and the ‘Noles are tough as hell up front. The Aggies are as well. But I still don’t trust that secondary, and I trust Marcel Reed even less. That was a great win in South Bend, but this A&M team still feels off in ways I can’t quantify.
The Group of 5 as we expected really boils down to who’s the best at the top of a loaded AAC: Memphis, Tulane, USF could all legitimately win this — and for once, there’s a thriving middle class of fairly quality teams too. The Green Wave have two wins over Power Conference opponents already though. That’s how you get ranked highly. And, oddly, it’s how they’re all winning. The most wide open conference in football has all three of its leaders winning with power running and defense.
There’s our first check-in of the season. We’ll be back sometime around the midway mark and do it again. In the meanwhile, go ahead and sound off below.
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