Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Milwaukee Brewers are back in town for their final regular season series this weekend, as they’ll welcome the Cincinnati Reds to American Family Field for three games beginning Friday night. The Brewers are just a win away from setting a new franchise record for wins in a season, and they’re also just a win (or Phillies loss) away from claiming the best record in baseball, giving them home-field advantage through the playoffs.

On the other side, the Reds are fighting for their season as they’re neck and neck with the Dbacks and Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot.

This has the makings of a fun series.

The Brewers’ injured list remains filled with pitchers, namely RHP Brandon Woodruff, who could be back for the postseason, though based on recent comments from himself and manager Pat Murphy, that seems unlikely. Beyond him, closer Trevor Megill and reliever DL Hall could be back this weekend to face hitters before the playoffs. Rookie Logan Henderson is making a push to return for the playoffs (though it’s unclear where he’d fit into the pitching staff), and so is Jose Quintana. Pitchers Shelby Miller, JB Bukauskas, and Connor Thomas, along with outfielder Garrett Mitchell, are out for the year.

For the Reds, outfielder Austin Hays is currently considered day to day with back spasms, as he’s missed the last few games but hasn’t been moved to the IL at this point. Pitchers Ian Gibaut, Wade Miley, Carson Spiers, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar are all expected to be done for the year with injuries.

I’ve written enough about Milwaukee’s offense this season that I don’t think much more needs to be said. Instead, I’ll highlight some milestones you can keep an eye out for this weekend. Christian Yelich is one homer away from 30 for the season, Jackson Chourio is a steal shy of another 20-20 season, Brice Turang is two homers shy of a 20-20 year, Isaac Collins is a homer shy of 10 for the year, and Sal Frelick probably needs about nine hits this weekend (assuming he plays all three games) to hit .300 for the year. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .260/.333/.405 (.738 OPS ranks 11th) with 164 homers (tied for 20th), 797 runs scored (third), and 161 steals (second).

The Reds are led by Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer, who each have 21 homers. Hays has added 15 homers, as has Matt McLain. Noelvi Marte, TJ Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Jose Revino, Sal Stewart, Miguel Andujar, Gavin Lux, Santiago Espinal, and Ke’Bryan Hayes are also in the fold. As a team, the Reds are hitting .245/.315/.391 (.706 OPS ranks 19th) with 164 homers (tied for 20th), 704 runs scored (15th), and 104 steals (19th).

Milwaukee’s bullpen seems to look a bit different every series now a days, and that will likely continue in the postseason. Currently, the group consists of Abner Uribe closing games with Nick Mears and Jared Koenig the main guys setting him up. Beyond them, Rob Zastryzny, Aaron Ashby, Tobias Myers, Erick Fedde, Grant Anderson, and Carlos Rodriguez have also been innings eaters. Robert Gasser, Chad Patrick, and Jacob Misiorowski also have the potential to both start and relieve at this point. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.61 team ERA (second), including a 3.55 starter ERA (second) and a 3.69 reliever ERA (ninth). They’ve struck out 1,402 batters (fourth) over 1,415 innings.

The Reds’ bullpen is led by Tony Santillan, Scott Barlow, Emilio Pagán, and Brent Suter. Santillan leads the way with 79 appearances, striking out 74 over 72 2/3 innings while picking up seven saves with a 2.48 ERA. Pagán has 30 saves and a 2.97 ERA, striking out 79 over 66 2/3 innings. Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, and long-relief options Nick Martinez, Graham Aschcraft, and Chase Burns join them in the ‘pen. As a staff, the Reds have a 3.88 team ERA (13th), including a 3.83 starter ERA (eighth) and a 3.94 reliever ERA (14th). They’ve struck out 1,352 batters (12th) over 1,409 innings.

Friday, September 26 @ 7:10 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP) vs. Zack Littell (3.86 ERA, 4.93 FIP)

Priester continues to impress in his time with Milwaukee. After previously being scheduled to start on Wednesday against the Padres, he was given an extra couple days of rest and will instead start on Friday, which should help space his starts before the NLDS. In his last outing, Milwaukee beat the Angels as he went 5 2/3 innings with two runs allowed and 10 strikeouts. For the year, he’s 13-2 with a 3.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 128 strikeouts across 152 1/3 innings. In three career appearances (two starts) against the Reds, Priester has a 1-0 record with a 2.76 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 16 1/3 innings. That includes three runs allowed and nine strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings in two appearances this season.

Littell, 29, has made nine starts for the Reds since being acquired from the Rays at the deadline. In 31 total starts this season, he has a 3.86 ERA and 4.93 FIP with 127 strikeouts across 182 innings. He went five innings in a victory over the Cubs his last time around, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk with four strikeouts. He’s made 11 career appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee, with a 1.71 ERA and 15 strikeouts across 21 innings. Both of those starts came this year (one with Tampa Bay, one with Cincinnati), spanning 12 innings with three runs allowed and eight strikeouts in a pair of no-decisions.

Saturday, September 27 @ 6:15 p.m.: TBD vs. Andrew Abbott (2.80 ERA, 3.65 FIP)

The Brewers have not announced starters for either of the last two games of this series, though one will almost certainly be Freddy Peralta, so I’ll provide a brief blurb on him here. I’ve written about 30 blurbs on Peralta this year, and they all follow the same trend: he’s been really good, especially when he limits walks. Across 32 starts this season, Peralta is 17-6 with a 2.68 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and 201 strikeouts over 174 2/3 innings. His last start was a no-decision, as he allowed two runs and struck out six over five innings on just 76 pitches. Across 21 career appearances (15 starts) against Cincinnati, Peralta is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 117 strikeouts across 89 1/3 innings. His only start against the Reds this year was a loss, as he allowed three runs and struck out nine across six innings.

Abbott, 26, has also enjoyed a solid year, with career-best numbers across the board. Over 28 starts this season, he has a 2.80 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 145 strikeouts across 161 frames. The former second-round pick tossed 4 2/3 shutout frames in his last appearance, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out two on 86 pitches in an eventual 1-0 win over the Cubs. Across seven career starts against Milwaukee, Abbott is 2-4 with a 3.57 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 40 1/3 innings. He’s made a pair of starts against the Crew this season, allowing five runs over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts.

Sunday, September 28 @ 2:10 p.m.: TBD vs. Brady Singer (3.95 ERA, 3.93 FIP)

As mentioned above, this could be Peralta’s spot, though the starter for the other game (Saturday or Sunday) is completely up in the air. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some form of a bullpen game with DL Hall potentially returning from injury to join Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Aaron Ashby, Tobias Myers, Erick Fedde, Robert Gasser, and/or Carlos Rodriguez (and I’m just now realizing how many multi-inning guys the Brewers have in the bullpen, wowza).

Singer, 28, has put together one of the best seasons of his career in his first year with the Reds. After five solid-not-great seasons with Kansas City, he’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 3.93 FIP across 166 1/3 innings this season, striking out 158 batters. He got roughed up a bit in his last start against the Pirates — four earned runs and only three strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings — but he was much better in the three starts before, allowing just four earned runs total across 17 2/3 innings with 15 strikeouts against the Mets, A’s, and Cardinals. In three career starts against Milwaukee (two of which came this year), Singer has a 4.11 ERA and 15 strikeouts across 15 1/3 innings.

Friday, September 26: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Saturday, September 27: Nationally televised on FOX; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Sunday, September 28: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, Telemundo Wisconsin, and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

The Reds have a lot more to play for here, as Milwaukee is just looking to end the regular season on a high note while Cincy is fighting to keep playing into October. I think the Reds eke out two of three and hope they can get some help to sneak into the postseason.