It came down to the final day of the regular season, but the Cincinnati Reds outlasted the New York Mets to grab the 6th spot in the National League and qualify for the playoffs as the 3rd and final wild card team. The results from Sunday’s games means that the Reds will be facing off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. Let’s dig into everything we need to know about the series.
When and Where
The best-of-three game series will begin on Tuesday, September 30th. The two teams will also play on Wednesday, October 1st, and if necessary, Thursday, October 2nd.. All of the games in the series will be played in Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium. Each game has a scheduled first pitch for 9:08pm ET. The entire series will air on ESPN.
The Starting Pitchers
Hunter Greene will start game one for the Cincinnati Reds. The Dodgers have not officially announced their starter for the game, but Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts said on Sunday that it was likely to be Blake Snell.
Hunter Greene and Blake Snell both missed time with injuries this season. And both were dominant when they were healthy. Greene made 19 starts and had a 2.76 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. Snell, who dealt with shoulder issues, only made 11 starts for the Dodgers but he posted a 2.35 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in those games.
Greene faced the Dodgers once this season and it wound up being one of the worst starts of the season for him as he allowed three earned runs, was charged with two unearned runs, and threw 5.0 innings in what turned into a 7-0 loss. In the 2024 season he faced Los Angeles twice – both times in May and they came in back-to-back starts. He allowed three total runs in his 12.1 innings as the Reds and Dodgers split those games.
Snell did not face the Reds this season. He did face them in 2024 when he was with San Francisco. The lefty couldn’t have done much better as he fired a no-hitter in Cincinnati in a 3-0 win by the Giants.
Beyond those two guys, neither team has indicated who will be the starters in the rest of the series. During the latter part of the season it was Nick Lodolo who was behind Greene in the rotation, but he pitched out of the bullpen on Sunday. Perhaps he can still go on Wednesday given that he threw just 26 pitches during the game. Zack Littell would be the next guy in the rotation, and then Andrew Abbott. For Andrew Abbott, he pitched on Saturday, so he would be pitching on short rest to take the mound for game two, but would be on normal rest for a game three if it were necessary.
Assuming that it is indeed Blake Snell in game one, then the next guy in the Dodgers rotation at the end of the season has been Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Shohei Ohtani, though, had been pitching every 6th or 7th day for Los Angeles since returning from Tommy John surgery and he last pitched on the 23rd. Those three seem to be the likely trio that would face the Reds.
How did the do against the opposition?
The Cincinnati Reds had 10 batters get at least 10 plate appearances against the Dodgers this season. Only TJ Friedl and Austin Hays hit over .211 among the group. Noelvi Marte hit .174, but he did hit two home runs in his six games.
The pitchers numbers aren’t a ton better than the ones the hitters had. 11 pitchers threw at least one inning against the Dodgers this season while with the Reds and were on the active roster when the season ended this weekend. Here’s how each of those guys performed.
When you look at the numbers for both the hitters and the pitchers against the Dodgers, you can see pretty clearly why Los Angeles went 5-1 against Cincinnati during the season.
Down The Stretch
There’s very little correlation between how a team is playing as they enter the playoffs and how they perform in the playoffs.
With that said, the Reds went 8-3 in their last 11 games and one of those losses came in extra innings. The Dodgers were even better, going 9-2 in their last 11 and winning the final five games of the year. Going back to September 7th they went 15-5 and two of those losses came in extra innings.
The Playoff History
For a long time the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers shared a division and during that time there was no wild card. That meant that there was never going to be a matchup between the two clubs in the playoffs. The only time that the Reds and Dodgers have met in the playoffs was in 1995. Cincinnati swept them in a best-of-five series. They would win 7-2 and 5-4 in Los Angeles before returning home to pound the Dodgers 10-1 in game three.
That would be the last time that the Reds had a home win in a playoff game. It was also the last time that Cincinnati advanced in the playoffs. That was 30 years ago. The Reds have only made the playoffs five times since then and one of those times came in 2020 when eight teams made the playoffs in each league. The Dodgers have made the playoffs 18 times since then, and this year is their 13th season in a row that they’ve made it. They won the World Series in 2020 and in 2024.
The World Series Odds
Some of you hate it. And the rest of you REALLY hate it. Probably. But Fangraphs has updated their odds for each team in the playoffs to win the World Series. And things aren’t in favor of the Cincinnati Reds, who are tied for the lowest odds of hoisting that beautiful trophy at the end of the year with the Cleveland Guardians at 1.5%. Here’s the it looks like for each of the playoff teams according to Fangraphs at 3:07am on Monday morning.
TeamWLWin WS%Seattle Mariners907220.0%Philadelphia Phillies966616.7%Los Angeles Dodgers936915.9%Toronto Blue Jays946810.8%New York Yankees946810.2%Milwaukee Brewers97656.7%San Diego Padres90725.8%Boston Red Sox89733.8%Chicago Cubs92703.7%Detroit Tigers87753.5%Cincinnati Reds83791.4%Cleveland Guardians88741.4%
