The quest to repeat begins on Tuesday on Los Angeles without the prestige of a first round bye or an opponent with a roster of stars. Instead, the Dodgers will need two more wins than they did on what seemed to be a precarious road to a World Series title last October. Those two wins will have to come against a surging Cincinnati Reds (against whom the Dodgers were 5-1 this season) team, managed by the legendary Terry Francona, with dangerously little to lose. Before the two teams square up an intriguing three game series, I’m going to break down the most pertinent pieces of information you’ll want to know before tuning in.
After a maddeningly inconsistent season characterized by injuries and underperformance throughout the roster, the Dodgers have hit their stride in the second half of September, finishing with a strong 93-69 record.
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Dodgers Rotation
The rotation has clicked as it has become healthy, delivering nothing but lengthy, dominant starts over the last month. In this series, the Dodgers will deploy veteran lefty Blake Snell (2.35 ERA in 61.1 IP) and young ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.49 ERA in 173.2 IP) in Games 1 and 2, respectively. The decision here seems pretty clear cut, as Snell and Yamamoto have both delivered the most consistent length down the stretch of any starters on the team. I might have gone with Yamamoto in the first game, but considering the Reds struggle against lefties like Snell and how Yamamoto often benefits from an extra day of rest, it’s hard to complain here. Glasnow (3.19 ERA in 90.1 IP) should be available to support Snell in a piggy-back role on Tuesday if he can only deliver, say, only 5 innings due to a high pitch count.
Having Yamamoto, a bonafide ace after his sterling 2025 regular season, waiting to save the season and/or bullpen in Game 2 is something we can at least feel comfortable with considering that he’s averaged between 6-7 innings with a 2.20 ERA since the beginning of August. Should there be a Game 3, the Dodgers will send their seven-hundred-million-dollar man, Shohei Ohtani, and his 2.87 ERA to the mound. Considering both the way Ohtani has pitched in his return this season from Tommy John surgery (11.87 K/9 to 1.72 BB/9 and 1.90 FIP) and the fact that he made it through 6 strong innings in Arizona last week, I think it’s fair to expect him to give the Dodgers a chance to win in that elimination game.
Dodgers Bullpen
The widely lamented bullpen seems to have rounded into some sort of serviceable form (2.12 ERA and 2.08 FIP since their collective meltdown in Arizona on Thursday) with boosts from young and electric starters Roki Sasaki and Emmett Sheehan along with veteran righty flamethrower Tyler Glasnow (at least for this series). Most importantly, though, the envisioned back-end trio of Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, and Tanner Scott have looked effective in their last few outings after all struggling with walk and home run prevention mightily at various points this season. Edgardo Henriquez and his 103 mph fastball have been shoved into the spotlight but have risen to the moment. Even young lefties Jack Dreyer and Justin Wrobleski are at their best right now, making serious cases for leverage spots, especially against left-handed batters, later this week. Anthony Banda and Ben Casparius, both contributors last October but question marks down the stretch this season, have made cases recently to be on the Wild Card Roster. Obviously, these positives have come in minuscule samples size, but considering the pedigree, experience, and proven ceiling of most of these pitchers, I think that it is fair to be cautiously optimistic about the Dodgers bullpen, especially when the starting rotation is consistently delivering an immense amount of quality innings.
Dodgers Offense
If, as always, they can hit. While All-Star catcher Will Smith (153 wRC+) most likely will not be available for the Wild Card Series at least (Ben Rortvedt has done a competent job filling in), the rest of the planned lineup should be. While Max Muncy (137 wRC+) has been dealing with what manager Dave Roberts described to the media as a lower body issue and was out of the lineup the last few games of the regular season, he is expected to play on Tuesday and, even at a reduced capacity, will lengthen the lineup and focus its approach by example. Ohtani (172 wRC+) and Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+) have had tremendous seasons at the plate while young, homegrown outfielder Andy Pages has been a consistent contributor (113 wRC+) and much-needed source of power (27 HR).
Even Mookie Betts has resurged from a miserable first 2/3 of the season with a 128 wRC+ since August 1st and stellar defense at shortstop, finally looking like the player he has been his entire career. Teoscar Hernandez, somewhat of a wild card given his underperformance this season, appears to have refound his energy and locked in for another impactful playoff run, posting a 112 wRC+ in September. It is somewhat unclear how the Dodgers plan to roster and use lower-lineup and bench players like Dalton Rushing (L), Michael Conforto (L), Alex Call (R), Hye-Song Kim (L), Miguel Rojas (R), and Kiké Hernandez (R), Tommy Edman (S), but I would expect Edman (last year’s NLCS MVP) along with Rojas and Hernandez to see the most significant playing time of guys in that group due to Rojas’ recent performance (156 wRC+ in September) and Hernandez’s postseason pedigree (.874 OPS and 15 HR).
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Here’s how I would lineup the Dodgers for Game 1 and Game 2:
Game 1 vs. Hunter Greene (RHP)
Shohei Ohtani (DH)
Mookie Betts (SS)
Freddie Freeman (1B)
Max Muncy (3B)
Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
Tommy Edman (CF)
Andy Pages (LF)
Ben Rortvedt (C)
Kikè Hernandez (2B)
Games 2/3 vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP)/Nick Lodolo (LHP)
Shohei Ohtani (DH)
Mookie Betts (SS)
Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
Freddie Freeeman (1B)
Andy Pages (CF)
Max Muncy (3B)
Miguel Rojas (2B)
Ben Rortvedt (C)
Alex Call (LF)
These might be slightly more creative than the lineups Roberts will throw out, with Rojas maybe starting both games but I think he matches up better against either lefty in Games 2/3 than he does against Greene in Game 1, so I gave the start there to Kikè Hernandez, who has earned confidence in October. Alex Call gets the start in Games 2/3 here (although I would not be surprised to see Edman in there all 3 games instead), hopefully giving the lefties some trouble and getting on base before the lineup turns over. I’d also expect to see Call off the bench in Game 1 just as I’d expect to see Hernandez hit for Rortvedt vs. a lefty reliever late in Games 2/3 (before moving to another position so Dalton Rushing can catch). Conforto and Kim are both solid lefty options off the bench, especially for defense and base-running, but neither has shown enough with their bat this season to start any of these games, in my opinion.
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Reds Rotation
While these lineups certainly have the talent to topple any ace, the Reds’ starting rotation is no joke. Hunter Greene this season posted a 2.76 ERA with an 11.03 K/9, although the Dodgers are thankfully somewhat familiar with him. Pages, especially, has seen Greene well, homering twice off him earlier this year. Armed with a 100 mph fastball and devastating slider, Greene will no doubt be a tall task in Game 1. The Dodgers will have to be patient, force him to throw strikes, and accurately identify and clobber mistakes in the zone. Such is, of course, a good approach with any pitcher, but Greene especially is unlikely to hand anything to the Dodgers; he’s going to be fired up and they’re going to need to remain disciplined if they want to beat him.
The Reds have not yet announced who they plan to start Game 2 (and Game 3 if necessary), but it seems fair to assume it will be some combination of young lefties Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, who has been dealing with a groin issue but pitched through it during a 1-inning relief appearance on Sunday. With such in mind, let’s assume Abbott starts Game 2.
A 2025 All-Star, Abbott pitched to a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 innings, establishing himself as a legitimate top-end starter despite his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. By limiting walks and home runs Abbott has found a way to pitch effective innings and will be focused on avoiding the barrels of Dodger bats. With Abbott, they will again have to be patient and lay off his sweeper, curveball and change-up, which he mixes in with a 92-93 mph fastball that mostly stays in the zone but is tremendously effective. Lodolo, a bit of a wild card here, pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 156.2 innings this year, relies on a fastball, sinker, and curveball somewhat evenly, but his real trick this season has been limiting walks and, thus, baserunners when he does give up hits.
Essentially, the takeaway here is that all of these guys, despite their lower profile, have the ability to keep the Reds in a ballgame even when matched up against stars like Snell, Yamamoto, and Ohtani.
Reds Bullpen
Personally, I think that it is going to come down to how the offenses perform against the bullpens to decide this series. Theoretically, both of those should be advantages for the Dodgers, with both their offense and bullpen possessing a much higher ceiling, but the Reds have elements in both of those units that make them exceptionally dangerous and not to be underestimated in a 3 game series. Rookie phenom Chase Burns (2.65 FIP and 13.92 K/9) and his dominant stuff will be supplementing a mediocre Cincinnati bullpen that is anchored by righty Graham Ashcraft (3.99 ERA) and veteran Nick Martinez (2.61 ERA), although the later spent much of the season injured. Overall, the Reds’ bullpen is a competent group that, while not overly dominant, is capable of both melting down and shutting down offenses, sort of similarly to how the Dodgers’ bullpen has been this season, although they lack the talent and “stuff” of that group. If the Reds have a 1-2 run lead in, say, the 7th inning, the Dodgers should proceed, well, with caution, but not abject fear.
Reds Offense
The core of the Reds’ offense is, of course, their inimitable, switch-hitting shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Simply put, he is the kind of player that can end your season over the course of two days. Period. He is not to be trifled with. He had a down year (108 wRC+) in 2025, but, especially from the left side of the plate, can get extremely hot and homer-happy, not to mention the havoc he can cause on the bases. Avoid him.
Besides De La Cruz, the only other starter on the Reds with a wRC+ over league average (100), are TJ Friedl (109), Austin Hays (105), and Gavin Lux (102), and Noelvi Marte (101). Such is what makes the Reds interesting, because none of these guys (besides De La Cruz) have over 15 home runs, which both Matt McClain (77 wRC+) and Spencer Steer (97 wRC+) do. Lefty Will Benson and righty Tyler Stephenson also mark serious power threats in the middle of the lineup, especially against relief pitching. The Reds, who had the 24th best offense in baseball by wRC+, will have to rely on all of these components coming together this week to have a chance against LA’s pitching.
However, that offense, currently riding high and clicking enough to have made the postseason in a tight race, has a ceiling that could push them past the Dodgers, especially if they limit their strikeouts. Cincinnati’s pitching can, in a short series, easily do the same. While, on paper, a significantly less talented team than the Dodgers in both talent and execution, the Reds possess the components to take advantage of simple mistakes that a Dodgers team yet to form a cohesive identity have frequently made this season.
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If the Dodgers play even slightly better than competent baseball, they should be able to take this series, but they have yet to prove they can do so consistently. Hopefully Cincinnati are the first of their many eager victims this October as they play in a Wild Card series for the first time since its 2022 inception, but the Reds are going to do everything that they can to stay alive, which, as we’ve established, could be a very dangerous thing.
