This was Marc Topkin’s question in Sunday’s Tampa Bay Times. He provides a good rundown on this season’s disappointments, including topics like Tampa Bay’s terrible record in one-run games.
However, there is one glaring omission from the article that cannot be ignored: the 2024 fire sale.
In the midst of a losing season in 2024, the Rays front office shipped off two of the team’s best bats in Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, and replaced those players with outfielder Dylan Carlson and the position-less Christopher Morel.
Heading into the 2025 season, Paredes’s roster spot was assumed by would-be All-Star Junior Caminero — whose 45 homeruns would fall one short of tying Carlos Pena’s 2007 franchise record — and Christopher Morel, who would take over Randy Arozarena’s left field role.
Christopher Morel contributed 190 PA in the 2025 season, eventually losing his starting role to the likes of Kameron Misner and Chandler Simpson, all the while contributing a 59 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Only six Rays players have achieved such a paltry performance while picking up as many plate appearances in franchise history, with the only others in the last two decades being Jesus Sucre (2018), Mikie Mahtook (2016), and Reid Brignac (2011).
Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena has delivered for the playoff bound Seattle Mariners, putting up his fifth consecutive 20 Homerun / 20 Stolen Base season. Only 21 players in Major League history have achieved five 20/20 seasons, and only ten have done so six or more times.
Arozarena is just one player, and one that has had his own “struggles” late this year. Despite a 120 wRC+ on the season and a 167 wRC+ in July, he struggled down the stretch with an 89 wRC+ that netted his WAR contributions to a neutral 0.0 for the final two months.
In fairness, we seldom know with certainty how a trade will turn out. Whether a player succeeds or fails or even gets injured playing for one franchise or another are impossible to tell. Randy had a slow start to his time with the Mariners last season, was that a similar late season slump, or was it related to the difficult realities of being traded to a new club on the opposite corner of the map? The human element matters in all things.
How different could the Rays have looked with Arozarena and Paredes on this roster? It’s a bit of an awkward fit, that’s for sure.
It’s easy to imagine Caminero is promoted to a middle infield role with Paredes still on the roster, which sends either Brandon Lowe or Jose Caballero to an outfield corner. Arozarena then holds down the other corner outfield position, while DeLuca and then Mangum (as the injury replacement) patrol center field, and the continually struggling Josh Lowe out of the starting lineup.
Now, I’m not here to say two players fix everything for the Rays, the team ultimately missed the post season by ten wins; nevertheless, the team’s Pythagorean Win’s was already at 84 wins, and if you think having Paredes and Arozarena makes this team even four wins better, it’s not hard to imagine there’s a bit more punch to the Rays offense late in games, or that the one run results turn your way more often than they did, and if that’s your vision — as it is mine — an 88 or 89 win season (which would include a playoff birth) is suddenly not so out of reach.
There are many reasons the Rays didn’t succeed in 2025 — again, Topkin’s article has plenty of reasons why for you to consider — but let’s not forget the mess that was made before the season ever began.
