Kyle Bonagura
Mark Schlabach
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
Senior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of Georgia
Week 5 of the college football season featured a series of heavyweight battles, headlined by Oregon beating Penn State in double overtime, Alabama posting a huge road win at Georgia and Ole Miss knocking off LSU.
But there were surprises and close calls up and down the scoreboard, resulting in the biggest shakeup yet in the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 OklahomaSchlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn StateSchlabach: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Oklahoma
Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 IndianaSchlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: For the past few weeks, the ACC was quietly positioning itself for a shot at two playoff bids and maybe — gasp! — even three with Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech all rounding into impressive form. For all three to get in, it would have taken an unlikely set of circumstances, and now it seems like that scenario is off the table.
Florida State’s loss to Virginia was a momentum killer, and Georgia Tech squeaked by with an uninspiring performance against Wake Forest. The knee-jerk reaction from those results is to conclude neither of those teams will do enough for an at-large bid and that the ACC is likely a one-bid league (while also considering Louisville is still undefeated).
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Schlabach: It was another crazy weekend in college football, as three of the top five teams in the AP poll went down: No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Georgia. No. 8 Florida State also lost 46-38 in two overtimes at Virginia on Friday night. I think it was a preview as to what’s to come over the final nine weeks of the regular season. There’s so much more parity in the Power 4 conferences, especially in the SEC, which figures to have contenders knocking each other off every Saturday. The days of a dominant champion seem to be over, thanks to the transfer portal and NIL.
Oregon moved up three spots in my seedings after its 30-24 victory in two overtimes at Penn State, which is the best win of the season so far. Ohio State and Miami remained in my top four, while I wasn’t quite sure what to do with the fourth spot. I went with Texas A&M, while also seriously considering Ole Miss and Texas Tech.
Alabama is back in my top 12 after it ended Georgia’s 33-game home winning streak with a 24-21 win at Sanford Stadium. Kirby Smart has won two national titles at his alma mater, but he can’t figure out how to beat the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs and Nittany Lions remain in my top 12 for now.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 MiamiSchlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Remember when Alabama was dead and buried a couple of weeks ago? Well, after the Tide’s win against Georgia, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects that only Ole Miss will finish with a better record from the SEC than Bama and that no team in the conference has a better chance to win out (albeit it’s a slight 7.6% chance).
Ole Miss was the big mover this week, jumping to the front of the SEC with a key win against LSU — and the Rebels have just two ranked opponents left on their schedule (Georgia and Oklahoma). With that being the case, Ole Miss feels like the safest pick from the SEC to reach the playoff.
Schlabach: My bracket would produce some compelling storylines in the quarterfinals, especially in the Cotton Bowl Classic, where Smart would meet his former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning. Miami and Texas Tech have relied heavily on the transfer portal in building their rosters, and the Hurricanes would have an advantage playing the Red Raiders at home.
An Alabama-Ohio State contest in the Rose Bowl would be one of the better CFP games, and an all-SEC affair in New Orleans would probably make the Sugar Bowl organizers pretty happy.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: The way I see it, Oregon’s win at Penn State solidified the Ducks as a top-two team, alongside Ohio State — and they get a bye week to prepare for another massive game Oct. 11 against Indiana. From there, Oregon has a manageable schedule with no teams that are currently ranked the rest of the way.
Ohio State has allowed a total of 22 points in four games and appears to be on a collision course with Oregon in the Big Ten title game, which has the potential to be a national title game preview.
Schlabach: I think you could argue that the Ducks are the No. 1 team in the FBS right now. Former UCLA transfer Dante Moore is playing like the best quarterback in the country, and the Oregon defense did a great job containing Penn State’s running game, while giving quarterback Drew Allar tight windows to throw. I’ve got the Ducks getting past Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.
Lane Kiffin has done an unbelievable job building Ole Miss into an SEC title contender again, and he has one of the best stories in the sport in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He helped Ferris State in Michigan win two NCAA Division II national championships, and he’s lighting it up in the SEC. He threw for 314 yards and ran for 71 in the Rebels’ 24-19 upset of LSU. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense held the Tigers to 59 rushing yards and made things difficult for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Ole Miss still plays at Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, so it’s going to be a tough road the rest of the way.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina CentralSchlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
LA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona vs. UNLVSchlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Navy vs. Texas StateSchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Southern MissSchlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy
68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Troy vs. Central MichiganSchlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: UTSA vs. Old DominionSchlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Mississippi State vs. ClemsonSchlabach: UNLV vs. Pittsburgh
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UConn vs. Jacksonville StateSchlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana TechSchlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Utah State vs. Kansas StateSchlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington StateSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Michigan State vs. OhioSchlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
Rate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas vs. MinnesotaSchlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State
SERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Rice vs. Hawai’iSchlabach: SMU vs. Kansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: SMU vs. North TexasSchlabach: Duke vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Louisville vs. IowaSchlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland
Wasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: NC State vs. TulaneSchlabach: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Virginia vs. TCUSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa State
Snoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Bowling Green vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. CalSchlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Florida State vs. LSUSchlabach: Florida State vs. Tennessee
Kinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Houston vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: TCU vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: South Carolina vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: Auburn vs. NC State
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Baylor vs. Western KentuckySchlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Music City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Maryland vs. MissouriSchlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State
Valero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: BYU vs. USCSchlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. TexasSchlabach: Iowa vs. LSU
Tony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: Duke vs. Arizona StateSchlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&MSchlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Illinois vs. UtahSchlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UCF vs. South FloridaSchlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA
AutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. AuburnSchlabach: BYU vs. South Carolina
Duke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: Notre Dame vs. WashingtonSchlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State
