MLB division series: Lineups, analysis for Tigers-Mariners Game 5

This is October baseball at its finest!

It’s time for a win-or-go-home Game 5 in the American League Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park.

The Tigers, who entered these playoffs as the No. 6 seed, will look to ride their momentum from a dominant Game 4 win in Detroit on Wednesday to a second consecutive victory. The Mariners, the No. 2 seed with home field advantage, hope to secure their first trip to the American League Championship Series since 2001.

Which team will come out on top to face the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL pennant?

We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups and the keys to Game 5 along with takeaways after the final out.

Series tied 2-2

Game 5 starters: Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby

Key to winning Game 5 for Seattle: In 1997, Hall of Famer Randy Johnson went 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA for the Mariners. One team, however, had his number: He started five times against the Orioles, including twice in the ALDS, and the Mariners lost all five games.

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Skubal is the 2025 version of Johnson — and the 2025 Mariners seem to have his number. In his second start of the season, the Mariners beat him 3-2. In July, they scored four runs off of him in five innings, including a Julio Rodriguez home run, and won 12-3. In Game 2 of this series, Jorge Polanco homered twice as Skubal left trailing 2-0, with the Mariners eventually winning 3-2. Three Skubal starts, three Mariners victories.

Now, Seattle has to do it a fourth time, and the pitching staff will have to shut down the Tigers. It’s hard to string together hits against Skubal, so the Mariners will need to hit a home run or two (when Skubal doesn’t allow a home run this year, he’s 12-1). They won’t necessarily try to run up his pitch count — since they might try to attack early in the count and avoid his wipeout change — but Skubal has thrown more than 100 pitches just four times this season, so trying to do that and get him out after six innings is another potential path to victory. Mostly, the Mariners will need a hero to step up and beat the best pitcher in the AL. — David Schoenfield

Key to winning Game 5 for Detroit: Yes, the most-cited stat related to this series is Seattle’s 3-0 record when facing Skubal this season. That fact can be taken as a source of optimism (We have his number!) or anxiety (No way we beat that guy a fourth time!). But the Mariners have done a solid job of getting into hitter’s counts against Skubal and then doing damage once they do. At the same time, the Tigers haven’t scored in the early innings of any of those games, which has also been a problem during the postseason. Scoring a couple of runs early would be huge for Detroit and for Skubal, as it would allow him to attack the zone and avoid those hitter’s counts. I don’t really think the Mariners have Skubal’s number, but he’s not infallible. He does need his offense, however, to give him at least a sliver of a margin for error. — Bradford Doolittle

Lineups

Tigers

TBD

Mariners

TBD