Predicting the 2025-26 NBA MVP. Plus, we preview the Lakers and Bucks

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Most Valuable Prediction System

Which of the likely MVP contenders will win it?

Would you like to know who the 2025-26 NBA MVP will be? Well, do I have the system for you! It’s called the Most Valuable Prediction System (or MVPS for short). MVPS is determined by many different factors that have been studied for centuries, broken up into six categories (all scores are out of 10, with 10 being the strongest):

Narrative score: How good is the story your season will tell? Bonus points if you are a bit of an underdog and create a top team with your play.
Expected ridiculous stats score: How historic and rare are your stats?
Team quality score: Are you doing this for an elite team? Are you propping up a weak team? It’s tricky and subjective. Playing for a team that’s too good can actually hurt a bit, unless the record is historic.
Clutch score: Do you get it done in the closest moments?
Player impact score: Does the team fall off a cliff when you’re on the bench or missing games?
Perceived value score: This is kind of a combination of the narrative and the impact in its own way.

Putting all of these together will help us figure out who is the next MVP out of the most likely candidates. Betting odds from BetMGM are included next to the player name for perspective on expectations:

Returning MVPs

These four players share seven prior MVP awards, and that doesn’t even count each one having an NBA Finals MVP award..

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+250): The reigning MVP is looking to become the 14th player to go back-to-back (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James did it twice).

Narrative: Other than trying to go back-to-back in both MVP and winning a championship, there isn’t a great story here at the beginning. 6/10
Expected ridiculous stats: Nobody had averaged at least 32 points, five boards, six dimes, 1.5 steals and a block before SGA last season. And he can do better. 9/10
Team quality: Best, deepest team in the league. 8/10
Clutch: One of the clutchest the last three seasons. 10/10
Player impact: For most of last season, OKC was historic with him on the floor and just OK without him. 10/10
Perceived value: Despite his impact, many seem to believe the team is great no matter who is on the floor. 7/10

Total MVP Score: 50/60

Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+275): He’s a three-time MVP and the best player in the world, and his team got reloaded this summer.

Narrative: His team was gutted for frugality last season, and he still took OKC to a Game 7 last May. 8/10
Expected ridiculous stats: He could easily average a 30-point triple-double with a 65 true shooting percentage. 10/10
Team quality: He finally has a real backup center, and they have a legitimate nine-man rotation again. 8/10
Clutch: Finished second in Clutch Player of the Year voting last year. 10/10
Player impact: Previously, Denver couldn’t survive Jokić sitting for eight minutes. But now they have Jonas Valančiūnas. 9/10
Perceived value: Everybody knows he’s the best and thinks he has the biggest impact. 10/10

Total MVP Score: 55/60

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+1000): Would winning a third MVP in Milwaukee make him less likely to leave?

Narrative: He will be the reason the Bucks are good, and he’s playing the role of superhero. 8/10
Expected ridiculous stats: Only Jokić makes his line look vaguely pedestrian. 9/10
Team quality: They’re desperate for a good Kyle Kuzma season. More on the Bucks below. 9/10
Clutch: He’s not bad in the clutch, but a lack of jumper makes him tough to trust. 6/10
Player impact: Especially this season, I’d be shocked if Milwaukee can compete with him on the bench. 10/10
Perceived value: If Giannis gets this team to 50 wins, it’ll be through the roof. I just don’t think he can. 8/10

Total MVP Score: 50/60

The Houston Rockets’ Kevin Durant (+4000) has the seventh-highest odds on the board, but he’ll probably split some credit with Alperen Şengün. So we’ll keep him out of the MVPS for now. For this group,Jokić has the edge unless Milwaukee wins a bunch or OKC wins 70 games.

Could Anthony Edwards be ready for an MVP breakthrough? (Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)

First-time candidates

Two foreign-born players have not won MVP yet, but they both could easily put themselves into the conversation. And then the 24-year-old Minnesota star with the biggest personality in the game throws his hat into the ring.

Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+360): He’s finished top-five in MVP voting three times in seven years. Is it finally time?

Narrative: He’s the new face of the Lakers, and Rob Pelinka has forced the passing of the torch. 8/10
Expected ridiculous stats: He’s a 30-point triple-double threat every night. 9/10
Team quality: The Lakers should finish top six in the West, but they’re not contenders. 7/10
Clutch: He’s one of those guys you expect to make the big shot no matter what. 8/10\
Player impact: The LeBron James part of it will make things murky on how to judge it. 7/10\
Perceived value: That tone will be set early with LeBron James dealing with the sciatica. But it should be relatively high. 7/10

Total MVP Score: 46/60

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1300): It’s only his third year and he’s never sniffed the playoffs, yet his odds are fifth-highest.

Narrative: He’s the guy who is expected to bend or ruin basketball next. 7/10
Expected ridiculous stats: There’s going to be a year when he averages 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and five blocks. Just not yet. 9/10
Team quality: This team is possibly a Play-In Tournament team, so it might not even be good enough to boost this. 7/10
Clutch: Too early to know if he’s clutch, but we haven’t seen much. 4/10
Player impact: The Spurs can’t really survive defensively without him so far. 8/10
Perceived value: If the Spurs take the leap this year, Wemby will get the credit. 8/10

Total MVP Score: 43/60

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+1900): We haven’t had a U.S.-born MVP since James Harden in 2018. Can Ant do it?

Narrative: He might not care, but a lot of people consider him the next face of the NBA. 8/10
Expected ridiculous stats: If he can get up to 30-5-5 each night, that’s a great step. 8/10
Team quality: A healthy Wolves team should be firmly in the top four of the West conversation. 8/10
Clutch: He’s been good but not great so far. Will his new post game solve it? 6/10
Player impact: Wolves were less reliant on him last year, but he’s big for the offense. 7/10
Perceived value: If the Wolves challenge for the top three in the West, it’ll be because of him. 8/10

Total MVP Score: 45/60

The Detroit Pistons’ Cade Cunningham (+5500) has the seventh-highest odds, while the New York Knicks’ Jalen Brunson (+8000) and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Donovan Mitchell (+10000) round out the top 10. Of those three, Brunson should have the best chance, with the Knicks expected to be in the running for the No. 1 seed. Luka still has the best chance of the potential first-timers.

This probably comes down to Shai against Jokić, once again. The MVPS says so. My gut says go with Ant. 🐜👀

The Last 24

LeBron’s injury clears things up for the Lakers

⌛ Acceleration. We knew the Lakers were Luka’s team. LeBron’s injury speeds that up. More on the Lakers below.

🏀 Super subs. How do you maximize your role in the NBA? Shane Battier has your answers.

🔮 Cellar Dwellers? John Hollinger is predicting the bottom of the West. Will Dallas be left out?

🏀 Brotherly love. Steph and Seth Curry swapped jerseys. It was at practice?

🏀 Cleveland rocks? Hollinger also predicts the top of the East. Can the Cavs grab the No. 1 seed again?

LeWhat’s next?

2025-26 season preview: It’s Luka’s world now

Things got awkward in Los Angeles for a bit this summer, and they still might be on some level. At least for now, LeBron James seems to be in a pretty good headspace with the situation. When he picked up his $52 million option this summer, the messaging seemed to be that LeBron and the Lakers weren’t totally aligned on all things present and future. This is Luka Dončić’s franchise now.

Even though LeBron is still one of the top players in the world, the Lakers are focused on all things Luka and putting a team around him. That eventually (maybe even as soon as summer 2026) won’t include LeBron. So have they done enough to put a contending team around them? Is this season going to be super awkward? Let’s dive in!

Drama Meter: It’s pretty high but nothing totally detrimental, as of right now. This could easily get to a 10 if Deandre Ayton is still too aloof or LeBron isn’t on the same page as Luka or JJ Redick or this team gets off to a slow start. Then we’ll find out how much drama there can be.

Hot Seat Meter: One year into the job and his coaching career, Redick received a contract extension through 2030 with the Lakers. This seat is beyond cold.

Offseason question: We still don’t know! The Lakers will have a lot of roster flexibility this summer, as has been the case in most of Rob Pelinka’s tenure running this franchise. LeBron doesn’t seem to be retiring after this year (as of right now). And the Lakers aren’t committing to him past this season (as of right now).

Reaves will absolutely decline his option and make anywhere from $30 million to $40 million annually starting next season. Hachimura and Ayton could be in line for good paydays if they have strong years. And then there’s the LeBron of it all.

Expectation for this season: I don’t see why they can’t win 50 games again and put themselves firmly in the top six for the playoffs. From there, they have to get the correct matchup to even get out of the first round.

Time to fight

2025-26 season preview: Fear the Deer or Deer in Fear?

The Milwaukee Bucks were already in a precarious position. The Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo combination was not yielding championship-level results after two seasons together. There are plenty of reasons/excuses why, but it wasn’t looking good. Then Lillard ruptured his Achilles tendon, and there was pressure on the Bucks to prove to Giannis they’re still the long-term place for him and Thanasis.

The Bucks decided to waive and stretch Lillard, giving them some flexibility this past summer, but adding $23 million in dead cap money each year for five years. They brought in Myles Turner because of it. Turner replaces Brook Lopez, but nobody really replaces Dame (maybe Cole Anthony?). So what’s next? Let’s dive in!

Drama Meter: Everybody is going to wonder aloud all season if this is going to be good enough for Giannis. And if not, does he force his way elsewhere? We already have reports of trade talks (as surface-level or in-depth as you want to believe) between Milwaukee and New York.

Hot Seat Meter: Doc Rivers seems to have a great way of playing the right politics with people in charge. So I’m not convinced that even a bad season will cost him his job.

Offseason question: This is the question around the NBA right now. All other 29 teams would love to trade for Giannis. He’s flirted with not being happy and what that could mean in the past. Every time, the Bucks have made a significant move. Do they have enough?

There is roster flexibility possible moving forward, but not within the Bucks’ control. Green will be someone they want to re-sign. Porter has a great chance at a big payday if he has a monster year, and they need what he can potentially do.

Expectation for this season: I think this Bucks team is better than people assume. If you can make games ugly on defense and leave it up to Giannis to bully everybody on offense with shooters surrounding him, there’s a winning formula. At least for regular-season games. It’ll take him being Superman in the playoffs for it to work. At least Thanasis is back.

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