The Dodgers have risen to the challenge so far in the playoffs, with a 9-1 record en route to a second consecutive World Series appearance. They finished off a sweep of the top seeded Brewers last Friday, giving them a week off before the World Series kicks off tomorrow. The other side of the bracket was much more contested, as the top two seeds in the AL faced off for a date with the Dodgers. The Mariners took the first two games of the series in Toronto, but the Blue Jays returned the favor in Seattle and won a Game 7 thriller to advance to their first World Series since 1993. The Jays finished a game ahead of the Dodgers at 94-68, so the series begins north of the border. The Dodgers took two of three from the Blue Jays in LA back in August, winning the first two games 5-1 and 9-1 before the bullpen allowed three runs in the final two innings for a 5-4 loss in the finale.
The Blue Jays were the top seed in the AL and opened their postseason with a 3-1 series win over the Yankees in the ALDS. The offense was on one in that series, putting up double digit runs in the first two games with nine homers in the four games. The offense was slowed down a bit in the ALCS against a strong Seattle pitching staff, but still put up over 5 runs per game (thanks to a 13-run outing in Game 3). They hit 11 homers in the series, which is nearly as many as the Dodgers have in 10 postseason games (13).
Chad predicted the roster for the series and the rotation plan earlier this week. The rotation plan does seem pretty set in stone, but the lack of left-handed starters for Toronto poses an interesting question on offense.
Dodger Offense
The Dodger offense hasn’t been great this postseason. They’re averaging 4.6 runs per game and have a .770 team OPS. Shohei Ohtani was having a very rough postseason at the plate until Game 4 against Milwaukee, when he put together probably the greatest individual game ever with three homers and six shutout innings on the mound. They scored 15 runs in the four games against the Brewers and haven’t score more than five runs in a game since in the Wild Card round.
The Brewer pitching staff did pretty well against the Dodger offense. Mookie Betts was having a great postseason heading into the series, but went 2-for-15 in the series and his .478 OPS was the lowest on the team other than Alex Call (who only had one AB). Andy Pages continued his postseason struggles, going 2-for-11 with three walks, though he did have a pair of sac bunts that led to Dodger runs. Max Muncy only had one hit in 12 at-bats, but it was a homer and he nearly had a second that was robbed by Sal Frelick that led to a very weird double play. Will Smith went 6-for-15 in the series with all six hits being singles. The Hernandez’s cooled off a bit at the plate, combining to go 7-for-29 with a Teoscar Hernandez homer and two Enrique Hernandez doubles. Tommy Edman led the team with seven strikeouts but went 5-for-15 and led the team with four RBIs. Freddie Freeman entered the series 5-for-23 in the postseason and had a solid series, getting on base each game and three of his four hits in the series went for extra bases. Like I said earlier, Ohtani was really struggling at the plate before a three-homer game in the clinching Game 4.
Dodger Pitching
The Dodger pitching staff has carried them this postseason and was absolutely dominant against Milwaukee. The worst start came from Game 3 starter Tyler Glasnow, who allowed three hits, three walks and a run over 5 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts. That was the WORST. Blake Snell started the series with eight shutout innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts and somehow got upstaged by Game 2 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who threw a complete game shutout. Ohtani closed it out with six shutout innings in Game 4 and did go back out for the seventh, but allowed a walk and a single without recording an out. Ohtani has the worst ERA of the four Dodger starters this postseason at 2.25 after a bit of a rough first outing against the Phillies. The Dodgers seem to be throwing out the same rotation in the World Series, with the announcement on Tuesday that Snell would start Game 1 and Yamamoto would start Game 2. Games 3 and 4 aren’t announced yet, but keeping Glasnow and Ohtani in that order makes sense.
The Dodger bullpen was hardly used against Milwaukee, and those that were were generally pretty solid. Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia had identical pitching lines for the series. Each took down 1 2/3 innings over two outings and allowed a hit and no runs with a strikeout and no walks. Roki Sasaki and Blake Treinen each pitched in three of the four games. Sasaki had his first struggles as a closer in Game 1, issuing two walks, an automatic double and a sac fly and failing to complete the inning. He threw a perfect ninth in Game 3 and went back-to-back days for the first time, finishing off the series allowing a hit in an otherwise spotless ninth. Treinen relieved Sasaki in Game 1 and immediately loaded the bases with a walk, but got Brice Turang to strike out after nearly hitting him to score the tying run. He retired both batters he faced in Game 3 but struggled in Game 4, allowing a double and a walk before getting a strikeout and getting pulled. Banda came in and allowed a ground ball that scored a run, but escaped further damage. They didn’t really have any use for the long relievers in the pen, as Emmet Sheehan, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski and Clayton Kershaw didn’t appear in the series. They should all be very fresh for the World Series if they’re on the roster. Tanner Scott‘s status is still up in the air. The Jays are pretty balanced between righties and lefties in their lineup, but the two biggest threats are right-handed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers leave off one of the lefty length guys in favor of someone like Edgardo Henriquez or Will Klein.
Blue Jays Lineup
The Jays lineup has been historic this postseason. They’ve had eight players with 40 or more plate appearances this postseason and Alejandro Kirk‘s .752 OPS is the lowest among them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a cool .442/.510/.930 slash line in 11 postseason games and has six homers, six walks and only three strikeouts in 51 plate appearances. Ernie Clement doesn’t have the big dinger numbers, but still has a 1.063 OPS and only two strikeouts in 45 plate appearances. George Springer is 11-for-46, but nine of those 11 hits have gone for extra bases with five doubles and four homers. Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho are also OPSing over .800 and each have two homers. They’ve done all of this without starting shortstop Bo Bichette, who hasn’t played since September 6 with a knee sprain but is expected to be back for the World Series.
Among playoff teams, the Dodger offense’s 23.7 percent strikeout rate is the third-best. The Padres were the second-best at 19 percent in their three playoff games, and the Blue Jays have only struck out 14.8 percent of the time. That mark would be the lowest among playoff teams in at least the last 10 years, with the 2017 Rockies and their 15 percent being the only other team below 17 percent. This isn’t exactly shocking, as they finished the regular season with the lowest team strikeout rate as well at 17.8 percent. The Jays had the highest batting average and on base percentage in baseball this season, but only finished seventh in slugging. They also stole the third-fewest bases in baseball this season (77) and have only stolen one base in 11 games this postseason.
It’s almost an impossible ask to expect the Dodger pitching to continue being this dominant against an offense like this. Some dude named Mike wrote a breakdown of the strength vs strength matchup between the Dodger pitching and Toronto offense. The Brewers were also a contact-heavy team that didn’t strike out a ton, and the Dodger pitchers shut them down. Toronto presents a much bigger issue with their rare combination of contact and slug.
Blue Jays Pitching
The Toronto pitching staff hasn’t exactly been a strength this postseason. Kevin Gausman was their ace this season and has played the part in four playoff outings, allowing four runs and 10 hits in 18 innings. He’s only struck out 12 in those 18 innings and has issued nine walks, but was been able to limit the Yankee and Mariner offenses. Rookie Trey Yesavage came out of the gate strong with 5 1/3 no-hit innings against the Yankees with 11 strikeouts and only one walk, but allowed five runs in four innings in Game 2 against Seattle. He bounced back with 5 2/3 innings in Game 6 and allowed six hits and two runs. Shane Bieber has also made three starts and allowed exactly two earned in each of them. They’ve been aggressive in pulling him, as his first start only lasted 2 2/3 innings and his Game 7 start on Monday only lasted 3 2/3. Max Scherzer was left off the ALDS roster, but got the start in Game 4 of the ALCS in Seattle. He allowed two runs and three hits in 5 2/3, but did issue four walks.
Somehow, the Dodgers might have a bullpen advantage in this series. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been excellent with three hits and one run allowed in 7 1/3 innings over six outings and 12 strikeouts with only two walks. Chris Bassitt pitched twice against Seattle and didn’t allow a baserunner in 2 2/3 innings. Louis Varland has somehow pitching in 10 of their 11 playoff games and has a 3.27 ERA, allowing four runs and eight hits in 11 innings. Seranthony Dominguez has a 4.05 ERA in seven outings, and the other seven Toronto relievers that have appeared have ERA’s over 6. Toronto’s bullpen as a whole has a 5.52 ERA and have allowed 11 homers in 45 2/3 innings.
Unlike the other teams the Dodgers have played this October, the Blue Jays’s staff is extremely right-handed. They only had 20 starts all season from left-handed pitchers (Eric Lauer had 15, Easton Lucas had five). They’ve had Lauer in the bullpen in each of the first two rounds and he struggled in the ALDS, but threw a scoreless inning in the ALCS. Lefties Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little were also on the ALCS roster and old friend Justin Bruihl did appear in the ALDS, but was left off against Seattle.
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Overall, this should be a pretty tight series. The Dodgers should have the advantages in all phases on paper, but Toronto’s offense has been wild this postseason while the Dodgers have sputtered. The Dodger pitching staff is one of the best at striking batters out, and the Blue Jays do not strike out. All the attention will be on Vladito, Springer, Ohtani and Betts which pretty much guarantees the series is gonna come down to Edman and Joey Loperfido or some shit.
Here’s the schedule with Games 5-7 being if necessary. All times are PT and will be shown on Fox.
Friday, Oct. 24LAD @ TOR, Game 1 – 5 PM
Saturday, Oct. 25LAD @ TOR, Game 2 – 5 PM
Monday, Oct. 27TOR @ LAD, Game 3 – 5 PM
Tuesday, Oct. 28TOR @ LAD, Game 4 – 5 PM
Wednesday, Oct. 29TOR @ LAD, Game 5 – 5 PM
Friday, Oct. 31LAD @ TOR, Game 6 – 5 PM
Saturday, Nov. 1LAD @ TOR, Game 7 – 5 PM
