Which teams that missed out last March will make the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

The 68-team men’s NCAA Tournament field goes through considerable turnover every season. Even when setting aside the chaotic conference tournaments of mid-major leagues that only send one representative, the at-large pool varies more than you might think.

In each of the last three seasons, at least 12 at-large spots have gone to teams that missed the previous year’s tournament. Though the portal offers a convenient way to reload rosters, plenty of high-major schools still experience dips after successful campaigns, opening the door for new arrivals.

Before a new season begins, let’s take a look at some of the most likely candidates to continue this in-and-out trend. This story looks at the optimistic side of things: teams that could make a return to the NCAA Tournament after missing out in 2024-25. Part 2, coming later this week, will examine the flip side, aiming to identify the teams most likely to be sitting on the sidelines (or playing in the NIT/Crown/etc.) this coming March after suiting up for the Big Dance last season.

For reference, here are the teams that have broken into the field after a year (or more) off in each of the last three tournaments.

Teams with an asterisk (*) were led by a head coach in his first year in charge. Teams with a caret (^) won their conference tournament but were seeded well enough to have received an at-large bid if needed.

And here are seven teams with a great chance to return to college basketball’s biggest stage next spring:

1. NC State

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2024

Why They’ll Make It: Kevin Keatts’ miracle Final Four run is now fully in the past. The powers that be in Raleigh made the bold (but hard to argue with) choice to move on from Keatts just one year removed from that magical March. They made another bold choice to bring Will Wade back to power-conference basketball, elevating the McNeese boss three years removed from his ouster at LSU in the wake of an NCAA notice of allegations for numerous recruiting violations.

Wade has won everywhere he has been, though, and it would be a shock if he did not quickly build a winner. He hired a savvy GM in recruiting expert Andrew Slater, and his roster is stuffed with analytics darlings who transferred in from good power-conference teams.

The Wolfpack boast three players (Darrion Williams, Terrance Arceneaux, Tre Holloman) who ranked in the 98th percentile or better in CBB Analytics’ Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM), an all-in-one statistic that attempts to measure the overall impact of every player in college basketball. Another likely starter, Ven-Allen Lubin, ranked in the 94th percentile. And that’s before getting to Matt Able or Paul McNeil, two wings who could be playing for an NBA team in a year.

Why They Won’t: Outside of Williams, NC State’s newcomers were not the biggest pieces on their previous squads — potentially indicating that they received an analytical boost from their tremendous teammates. Williams himself almost went to the NBA this spring after shining at Texas Tech, and if he spends the year fixated more on proving scouts wrong than on winning, it could torpedo the Wolfpack’s postseason hopes. The roster could have depth issues unless several mid-major players translate up to the ACC. Wade needs international acquisition Musa Sagnia to provide some athletic size in the paint.

2. Virginia

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2024

Why They’ll Make It: Another ACC team with a new coach, Virginia completely overhauled its identity and roster this offseason. The Hoos will likely play much faster than they did under Tony Bennett. Ryan Odom recruited an incredibly skilled collection of new players, led by San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas and prized international additions Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh. The Cavaliers have a surplus of dead-eye perimeter shooters, as well, including North Dakota State transfer Jacari White and Toledo transfer Sam Lewis.

The new-look two-headed point guard rotation looks promising, as well. Dallin Hall arrives for his final college season after two NCAA Tournament appearances at BYU, and undersized rookie Chance Mallory has the electricity to significantly outperform his middling recruiting ranking. Odom has won everywhere he’s been — including at UMBC, over these very Cavaliers — and he should immediately find success in the ACC.

Why They Won’t: De Ridder and Grunloh better live up to the hype, or this is a collection of mid-major players plus Hall, who fell out of the starting lineup in Provo last year. Odom also has tended to need time to get his footing at a new job: At both Utah State and VCU, he missed the NCAA Tournament in his debut before excelling in Year 2.

3. USC

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2023

Why They’ll Make It: One of the early masters of the transfer portal, Eric Musselman’s first Trojan transfer class mostly flopped. But he quickly reloaded this offseason, reeling in a huge portal haul full of potential winning contributors, most of which fit his positionless system perfectly. Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice are the headliners, two talented scoring guards who started for a Final Four team and a Sweet Sixteen team, respectively. They bring shot-making and perimeter size.

Horizon League defensive player of the year Amarion Dickerson is a tremendous fit, as is high-upside big man Jacob Cofie. The Trojans also get Terrance Williams back from injury. USC will be able to play some extremely switchable lineups, a Musselman staple. He also brought in specialists in Gabe Dynes, an otherworldly shot blocker listed at 7-5, and Jordan Marsh, an on-ball demon who brings elite quickness on the ball. USC’s defense has sky-high upside.

Why They Won’t: Without a true lead guard (except when Marsh plays), USC’s offense could have some stagnant stretches in the half court. Alijah Arenas’ meniscus tear exacerbates that problem; he is an immensely talented future NBA player who can get his own shot against set defenses. Per KenPom, Musselman has not had a top-40 offense since 2019 at Nevada.

4. Iowa

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2023

Why They’ll Make It: Ben McCollum’s first season as a Division I coach went swimmingly, as his Drake Bulldogs racked up a 31-4 overall record and knocked off Missouri in the NCAA Tournament. Just like his coach, Bennett Stirtz was an immediate star at his new level, stuffing the stat sheet and hitting key shot after key shot in early-season wins over Miami (Fla.), FAU, Vanderbilt and Kansas State. Those victories loudly announced to the college basketball world that the coach-point guard tandem was here on a mission.

McCollum and Stirtz make Iowa a good bet to return to the tournament this year, and they brought a bunch of those Bulldogs with them — Cam Manyawu, Tavion Banks, Isaia Howard, Kael Combs — and supplemented that core with several talented additions. Brendan Hausen will be a stellar addition as a perimeter bomber, and Alvaro Folgueiras won the Horizon player of the year award. Most of all, McCollum’s sideline savvy and deliberate style will go over like a root canal for opponents, even those in the typically brutish Big Ten.

Why They Won’t: Even with Hausen and Folgueiras joining the fold, the Hawkeyes’ overall talent level may be a bit too low to reach postseason glory. Iowa needs a leap from its lone key returner, former top-100 recruit Cooper Koch, and a boost from intriguing freshman forward Trey Thompson. Even so, the Hawkeyes are short on creation besides Stirtz and alarmingly low on interior size. That could catch up to them against the Big Ten gauntlet.

5. Indiana

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2023

Why They’ll Make It: If McCollum and Stirtz were the most appealing coach/player combination available this offseason, then Darian DeVries and his son Tucker DeVries were a close second. Tucker missed most of last season due to injury, allowing him to retain his eligibility this year, and he will be a crucial scorer and playmaker for his father’s first campaign in Bloomington.

The Hoosiers have the talent to spread the floor and light it up from the perimeter. Tucker DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson both could be among the best shooters in the sport, and Nick Dorn and Jasai Miles are high-volume bombers as well. Reed Bailey even adds some spacing from the frontcourt, and Tayton Conerway is a drive-and-dish maestro on the ball. After Indiana ranked outside the top 300 in three-point attempt rate for eight consecutive years (!), fans will barely believe their eyes watching this offense.

Why They Won’t: The portal haul seemed to overlook the idea that basketball is a two-way sport. Outside of Conerway’s premier pest status, the roster lacks impact defenders, and IU could struggle to get stops as a result. Throughout his coaching career, DeVries has crafted competitive units on that end, but this is probably his most daunting challenge yet, especially in a loaded Big Ten. The Hoosiers might not get enough stops.

6. Ohio State

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2022

Why They’ll Make It: Ohio State was good enough to make it last year, and Jake Diebler’s team returns three outstanding pieces from that group in Bruce Thornton, John Mobley and Devin Royal. Unfortunately, late-game fortune did not favor the Buckeyes, and they earned the ignominious label of being the highest-ranked team on KenPom.com to not qualify for the NCAA Tournament, finishing 37th in adjusted efficiency margin.

Purdue’s Braden Smith deservedly gets a ton of attention as a four-year starting point guard in the Big Ten, but Thornton is a force on the ball in his own right. He is a true mid-range assassin, and his powerful build (listed at 6-2, 215 pounds) helps him muscle his way to wherever he wants on the court. Mobley has boundless range, while Royal is a matchup nightmare when he attacks off the bounce in the mid-post. Add in highly skilled frontcourt transfers Christoph Tilly (Santa Clara) and Brandon Noel (Wright State), and it is a foregone conclusion that the Buckeyes will score in bunches this season.

Why They Won’t: The offense might have its work cut out for it to offset the Buckeyes’ defensive shortcomings. Mobley is small, Tilly and Noel skew far more toward scoring than getting stops and Baylor transfer center Josh Ojianwuna could miss extended time while continuing to recover from his February knee injury. Plus, Diebler is still in charge, and skeptics would argue Ohio State’s late-game “misfortune” last year might have had something to do with the coaching.

7. Cincinnati

Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2019

Why They’ll Make It: Cincinnati is the team with the longest drought on our list, and the Bearcats are desperately hoping Wes Miller can turn the corner in his fifth season in charge. His teams have consistently been stout defensively, and this year should be no different with forces on that end in Moustapha Thiam, Sencire Harris and Baba Miller. A third straight Top 25 finish in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings seems like a reasonable outcome with the length, depth and athleticism present.

The offensive end of the court has been gruesome, though. Miller is hoping that new special assistant Kelly Peters, a longtime NBA and G League assistant, can crack the code, along with the addition of scorers and shooters like Kerr Kriisa, Shon Abaev and Jordi Rodriguez. Losing Jizzle James’ endless stream of bricked midrange jumpers could also result in some addition by subtraction. Cincinnati will not suddenly become an offensive powerhouse, but measurable improvement would give the defense a chance to carry the Bearcats to a long-awaited tourney bid.

Why They Won’t: Much of that offensive progress is theoretical — or even wishful thinking. Peters has to quickly apply pro concepts to a stagnant collegiate offense, and Day Day Thomas, who will likely be the Bearcats’ new lead guard, is almost as midrange-smitten as James was. This roster has a ton of players who really only excel on one end of the court, and Miller may not be able to fully harmonize his lineups. Plus, key interior addition Jalen Haynes is out “indefinitely,” which could end up meaning the entire season.

Also considered: Washington, Villanova, Kansas State, TCU, Providence and more.