Victor Wembanyama injury causes huge shift in betting odds

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama had gotten off to a sizzling start to the NBA season, averaging 26.2 points while leading the league in rebounds (10.9) and blocked shots (3.6) per game. Those numbers helped the big man shoot up the odds board for MVP, and at one point, he surged all the way to co-favorite to win the award. The third-year star opened at +1800 to win the MVP at BetMGM, and just last week, Wembanyama was the No. 4 MVP favorite (+700) behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. The 7-foot-4 Frenchman was also a huge favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at -300 at BetMGM.

But Wembanyama’s candidacy for both awards took a huge hit when he suffered a left calf strain in Friday’s 109-107 loss to the Golden State Warriors, an injury that could put him on the shelf for two to three weeks and perhaps longer. After the Spurs announced the injury on Monday, Wembanyama’s MVP odds plummeted to +10000 at BetMGM as of Tuesday morning. In the Defensive Player of the Year race, Wembanyama now sits at +300, second choice behind Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder (+140).

One key note here is that NBA players must play 65 games to be eligible for most postseason awards, or play 62 games before suffering a season-ending injury if those 62 games comprised at least 85 percent of their team’s games played to that point. Should Wembanyama miss two weeks after the Spurs announced the injury Monday, he would sit out six games. If Wembayama is on the shelf for another week after that, he would miss three more (he already sat out Sunday’s win over the Sacramento Kings).

While Wembanyama has been dominant on the court, injuries are stacking up for the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year and a 2025 All-Star, who missed the final 30 games of last season with a blood clot in his left shoulder. The Athletic’s Jared Weiss reports that the Spurs will be cautious with Wembanyama’s calf strain, as it could lead to Achilles injuries. In last year’s NBA Finals, Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Halliburton aggravated a calf strain in Game 5 but returned to play in Game 6 before tearing his right Achilles’ tendon early in Game 7. He will miss the entire 2025-26 season.

At 9-5, the Spurs sit in fifth place in the Western Conference. After Wembanyama’s injury, their odds to win the West fell to +2500, the same as the 4-10 Los Angeles Clippers. San Antonio has been wracked by injuries this season. All-star point guard De’Aaron Fox missed the first eight games with a hamstring injury and Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, is out with a calf strain of his own (he’s expected back after Thanksgiving).