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MLB ‘reclamation’ candidates: 6 free agents who could bounce back with new teams

November 19, 2025
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Neil PaineNov 19, 2025, 09:00 AM ET

CloseNeil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.

Fans love a good comeback story, and baseball arguably produces the most of any sport.

Each season, there are at least a handful of players who once built strong reputations, only to fall on hard times — through underperformance or, more often, injury — and are forced to start fresh with a new club. Then, somehow, they manage to rediscover what made them great in the first place. These are the players who are easy to root for — the ones who remind us that while a promising career can unravel quickly, things can turn around just as fast.

There were 15 who fit our criteria for a “reclamation project” arc during the 2025 season:

Age 27 or older. (So, well past the prospect stage.)

Had either a 2-WAR season earlier in their career, or at least 3 WAR over the three seasons before their drop-off. (They were at least pretty decent before.)

Produced fewer than 2 WAR in the preceding season. (They fell off meaningfully.)

Changed teams. (A key factor, with the new team doing the “reclaiming.”)

Either had 2+ WAR or improved by 2 or more WAR year-over-year. (The rebound year.)

That list, in order of WAR, included: Jesus Luzardo, Matthew Boyd, Merrill Kelly, Harrison Bader, Ramon Laureano, Aroldis Chapman, Adrian Houser, Carson Kelly, Gleyber Torres, Lucas Giolito, Clay Holmes, Mike Yastrzemski, Jhoan Duran, David Bednar and Brad Keller.

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Each represented their own arcs of redemption, but what unified them all was a return to the better days they had enjoyed before. The 2026 season is sure to provide its own crop of similar success stories. In fact, we already know who the reclamation candidates are simply based on who meets the criteria above — pending further offseason developments.

Let’s run through the six most likely candidates who could make up the 2026 reclamation list based on FanGraphs’ projected WAR — we weighted the FIP and RA/9 versions 50-50 — along with the 2025 reclamation success story they would most resemble.

2025 reclamation archetype: Ramon Laureano

In 2022 and 2023, Kim was a 5-WAR fixture with the San Diego Padres — but that feels like a long time ago. After missing most of the past two seasons with injuries and bouncing between the Braves and Rays, Kim is seeking to piece back together his promise as a steady-fielding middle infielder with good contact skills and plate discipline. He can look for inspiration in that department from Laureano, who was known for his combination of a good glove (albeit as an outfielder) and capable bat in Oakland before injuries and underperformance caused him to bounce around the waiver wire. Laureano landed with Baltimore to start the 2025 season, played well, then was shipped to Kim’s old San Diego stomping grounds at the deadline, where he continued to hit at an above-average clip.

2025 reclamation archetype: Merrill Kelly

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After posting 6.3 WAR combined across the 2023 and 2024 seasons with the Yankees and Padres, King was limited to 15 starts in 2025 due to inflammation in his right shoulder and left knee. When he did pitch, he was less effective than he had historically been with an uncharacteristically high 4.42 FIP, though much of that was due to allowing 1.47 HR per 9 innings — a figure that should go down when his 13.2% rate of HR/FB regresses to the mean.

King has reportedly drawn interest from rotation-starved contenders who would like to see him replicate the 3.4 WAR that Kelly had between Arizona and Texas in 2025, with his FIP recovering from a similar spike in 2024.

2025 reclamation archetype: Gleyber Torres

There is no perfect comparison for Arraez, whose unmatched bat-to-ball skills — without much else to hang his hat on — make him a player unlike any other in the modern game. However, we can at least draw a WAR-based parallel to Torres, another infielder whose value seemed to collapse despite being worth more than 3 WAR not much earlier. After being allowed to hit free agency by the Yankees and signing a one-year make-good deal with Detroit, Torres responded with 2.6 WAR through improved plate discipline and less-bad defense. Arraez could stand to do the same, as the notion of a full-time first baseman who walks just 34 times (with 8 HR) is a tough sell.

2025 reclamation archetype: Merrill Kelly or Jesus Luzardo

With Gallen declining a qualifying offer from Arizona to test free agency, the longtime Diamondbacks starter is an ideal candidate for reclamation status in 2026. Between 2020 and 2023, he averaged 4.3 pitching WAR per season after we prorated the pandemic-shortened campaign to 162 games, good for the 11th-best mark in baseball — then he dipped to 3.0 WAR while dealing with right hamstring troubles in 2024, and had the worst full season of his career in 2025 with a 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP to go with 1.2 WAR. But Gallen should benefit from a luckier HR/FB% rate in 2026, considering the overall quality of his pitching was largely unchanged, according to Statcast data.

Gallen doesn’t map perfectly onto any of the top reclamation projects of 2025 because his down year was not due to injury — he still made 33 starts in 2025 — which makes him uncommon among pitchers on this type of list. His comparative durability (he hasn’t started fewer than 23 games in a season since the pandemic) should be seen as a strength, not a weakness.

2025 reclamation archetype: Harrison Bader

Everything that could go wrong for the Orioles early in 2025 did, and Mullins was unable to do much to stop the slide despite decent hitting numbers (104 wRC+) for Baltimore. He was then dealt to the Mets at the trade deadline, and was very much unable to keep New York from suffering one of baseball’s all-time playoff-race collapses. That failure as a late-season rental will leave Mullins looking for a new club in 2026, but while he may never again post 6 WAR like he did in 2021, he can still be a valuable lefty bat with speed and outfield experience.

Bader can relate to that path after bouncing back from his own largely underwhelming stint in Queens with 3.2 WAR between Minnesota and Philly last season, hitting well at both stops.

2025 reclamation archetype: Harrison Bader or Ramon Laureano

Castro already had one go-round with a reclamation arc earlier in his career, averaging nearly 3 WAR per season in 2023-24 after leaving Detroit and latching on with Minnesota. Now he’ll have to do it again, as a defensive decline and a dreadful post-trade deadline stint with the Cubs tanked his value in 2025.

Castro’s ability to play almost every position gives him built-in appeal, but he also has much more ability than what he flashed in Chicago. Though his Statcast expected stats in the Windy City were concerning — he had an expected batting average of just .195 with a .256 expected wOBA — it wouldn’t be a surprise if Castro bounced back above 2 WAR next season.

Other pitching candidates: Zach Eflin, Patrick Sandoval

Other batting candidates: Marcell Ozuna, Amed Rosario



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