Thanks to Max Verstappen’s somewhat unexpected win in Qatar, Formula 1 is set for a spectacular showdown in the Abu Dhabi finale, with three drivers still in contention to become the 2025 world champion.
It could have been nice and straightforward for Lando Norris, who would be victorious if he had won the Qatar Grand Prix, but McLaren’s strategy error means that it is the first time since 2010 that more than two rivals have been up for the title going into the last round.
The Briton started the 57-lap race in second place alongside his team mate Oscar Piastri, but a cautious start saw Verstappen surge past at the first corner. Things went from bad to worse as the papaya team elected to keep their drivers out instead of pitting under the early Safety Car, leaving them with the gargantuan challenge of chasing down the Red Bull.
By the time the Dutchman had completed his mandatory two stops, the McLaren pair were significantly behind in terms of strategy, despite holding P1 and P2 on the track. Their second tyre change saw Piastri emerge around 17 seconds behind Verstappen, and despite his best efforts, his near-perfect weekend fell apart as he finished in P2.
On the other side of the team garage, Norris could only manage fourth position as he failed to pass Carlos Sainz for the final podium spot, although he did gain a place late on due to an error from Kimi Antonelli.
The 26-year-old nevertheless still holds a slim advantage in the standings and is on his way to claiming his maiden title, but what exactly does he need to do in the sole remaining race in Abu Dhabi? Find all the key numbers and scenarios below…
How can Norris win the title in Abu Dhabi?
Norris will arrive at the season finale with 408 points, just 12 more than Verstappen. Piastri is a further four points behind on 392, making his championship charge mathematically possible, but increasingly unlikely.
Essentially, if Norris finishes on the podium at Yas Marina, he will be world champion. It wouldn’t matter where his two rivals cross the line – a top three result is all he needs to wrap it up nicely.
What if Norris doesn’t finish on the podium?
Verstappen would have been knocked out of the fight entirely if he hadn’t outscored the McLarens this weekend, but his confident drive to P1 has allowed him to leapfrog Piastri in the standings and increase his chances of taking a fifth consecutive world championship.
His turnaround from his unrelenting struggle with bouncing before the Qatar Grand Prix means that a victory in Abu Dhabi, combined with a maximum fourth place result for Norris, would grant the Dutchman the title – a pretty magnificent comeback considering he was 104 points off the lead at one stage in the season.
What needs to fall into place for Piastri to have a chance?
The Australian admitted himself after the Qatar Grand Prix that he would “need a lot of things to go in my direction” in order to still be in with a shot, but the fact that he rediscovered his form this weekend certainly helps his case.
Norris won last season’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but if he can’t repeat the achievement and has a disastrous race, Piastri would have to rely on some other teams – like Mercedes or maybe Ferrari – putting on a great performance to put some space between him and Verstappen.
He can only win the title if he takes the chequered flag first or second, with his two competitors both failing to finish on the podium.
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