Giannis Trade Value Shrinks as NBA Grows Cautious, Insiders Say

Executives around the league are reportedly cooling on blockbuster trades for stars, and Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo may be seeing the effects. On the latest episode of The Hoop Collective Podcast, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said the mood in front offices is clear: “not to give up four first-round picks for anybody.” That shift could drastically reduce what it takes to move a superstar.

Why the Market Has Cooled

Teams are wary of losing future flexibility under the NBA’s growing apron restrictions. Windhorst explained that since clubs can no longer reset their rosters easily, even elite players like Giannis no longer command wild trade packages. Teams are now prioritizing salary flexibility and younger contributors over high-cost veterans, no matter their pedigree.

Giannis remains among the league’s best players this season. He’s putting up roughly 28.9–30.6 points, 10–11 rebounds, and about 6 assists per game, depending on the source. But his contract — $54.1 million this season, and rising to $58.5 million in 2026–27, with a $62.8 million player option in 2027–28 — complicates trades for many teams.

Steelers for Giannis? Not So Fast

The idea of four first-round picks exchanged for Giannis no longer holds as much weight in today’s NBA. As one executive told Windhorst, those high-end deals “just aren’t going to happen.”

Sources indicate that even if a trade occurs, Milwaukee would likely seek a mixture of young talent, favorable contracts, and future picks — rather than an all-pick haul.

That said, some teams remain intrigued. Clubs with cap space and long-term visions might still consider offering a mix of players and draft assets. However, no team appears ready to give up four first-rounders unconditionally.

What Happens Next With Giannis?

Right now, the landscape suggests that any potential Giannis trade would involve flexibility, youth, and balanced value rather than stockpiling picks. If the Bucks follow through with trade talks, scouts say the return will likely include at least one player, maybe two, plus several picks — but probably not the kind of offer fans dreamed about when superstars shifted so freely in past seasons.

The conversation around Giannis has cooled from hype to careful calculation. And for now, it seems even the brightest stars must fit within a new, more cautious NBA economy.