It’s the same thing every year. Mid-majors pulls huge upsets. Mid-major makes deep run. Power conference team squashes them in the end. What if we didn’t have to deal with power conference teams? What if we had only mid-majors left at the end of the rainbow? What if, for the first time since 1990, a mid-major takes home the NCAA title, and that fate is guaranteed before the month of April starts? Let’s dream a little about how an all mid-major Final Four might actually come together.
SOUTH
Say it with me now, UC San Diego. BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Okay, I think I lost some of you there in that second sentence, but if you haven’t heard about this team, you’re missing out. They play great defense, they shoot and make a ton of threes, they share the ball – honestly their offense is more artistically great than it is statistically good. If I could take them on that alone, I would. But I am taking them because of this: they’re old, they’re well-coached, and they are absolutely dominant in the turnover margin. They force the eighth-most turnovers in the country. They turn the ball over second-least in the country. Add it up and you get 30 freaking wins. Remarkable.
I shouldn’t need to convince you to take them over Michigan, a team that turns the ball over a ton – top 40 in the country. Nor should I need to convince you to take them over Texas A&M, a poor shooting team that is also not great at holding on to possession. (Moving quickly here? Yes, but the less you think, the better. Also, I’m like 50 percent sure that Yale will beat Texas A&M anyway in a game with the exact same vibes as last year.) I will need to convince you to take them over Auburn. They have been the best team in the country most of the year, have the best offensive efficiency in the nation and is in the top 10 in fewest turnovers. So, this might not be a great matchup for UCSD. There’s not much I could point to that would give UCSD an edge here, other than they wouldn’t be turning the ball over much and would at least get a chance to get their threes up and hope that even more of them go in than even their strong numbers would suggest. But for all of Auburn’s strength, even they have lost three of four coming in. Maybe there’s something going on in that locker room right now. Maybe they all hate Bruce Pearl for being a bigot or something. Maybe it’s all going to come out after the game, which ends 81-80 in favor of UCSD.
Finally, they go up against a New Mexico team that has run through the bottom of the bracket. Like UCSD, it should have been seeded higher, but no matter, it has one of the best guards in the country in Donovan Dent. I understand that the Mountain West has some proving to do in the big tournament, but if any team’s going to do it, it’s this well-put together New Mexico team that defends efficiently, rebounds well, gets to the line and has some legitimate playmakers in Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph as well as other, while playing a pace that 2-seed Michigan State won’t be used to playing. New Mexico slips by the Spartans to get to the Sweet 16, and in their way are either flawed UNC or Ole Miss teams, or an Iowa State team dealing with injury. Give me that New Mexico-UCSD regional final.
WEST
First, the elephant in the room. I know the mood on teams in the Mountain West seems to ebb and flow as a collective, so let’s quickly forget the fact that San Diego State was heavily exposed the other night by a team that many thought didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. Maybe SDSU just had an awful game, and maybe UNC was saving all its Q1 wins for the end of the season. Hi, it’s me, your hypnotist and we’re going to forget all about that. Snap.
Now that we’ve forgotten all about it, make no mistake: Colorado State is one of the hottest teams in the entire country. BartTorvik has them as the 5th best team in the entire nation over the last month. Since a February 12 road loss at Utah State, CSU hasn’t just been beating its opponents, it’s been destroying them, winning its subsequent 10 games by just under 17 points a contest. That includes two dominating wins over Boise and Utah State each.
Let’s say this extremely hot team that’s been playing more like a five-seed than a 12-seed over the last few weeks gets past Memphis by putting Dain Dainja in foul trouble, and beats a Maryland team that doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well. They have a tall order against Florida. But it’s not going to be Florida. Why? Because we’re imagining right now. And we’re going to imagine that UConn, who’s actually not that great a team, pulls off one of those everyone-thought-we-were-going-to-be-good-but-we-underperformed-but-we’re-still-good-enough-to-pull-this-8-over-1-upset-on-vibes-alone upsets. (See Arkansas in 2023, UNC 2022, Wisconsin 2017. Also, Loyola in 2021, not that they underperformed but they pulled an upset because they recently went to the Final Four and still had the Vibes.) Three of those four teams lost their next game, and by this time Colorado State will have become A Team of Destiny. Give me the Rams over a crying Dan Hurley who, unable to accept that his empire is crumbling, gets ejected midway through the second half.
Their opponent in the Elite Eight? Equally a Team of Destiny in Drake, who has done nothing but win games all season long. I don’t think Ben McCollum, the first year head man who won four Division II national championships in a six-year span (with one of those years he didn’t win being the canceled 2020 edition) before making the jump to D-I last offseason, knows the meaning of the word lose. Neither does Bennett Stirtz (who I’m still not convinced isn’t a relative/clone of Garrett Sturtz), who may not look like a killer on the court but absolutely is. I know the metrics may even suggest that Missouri is undervalued at a 6-seed here, but I don’t care. Give me the Bulldogs over the Tigers (who have lost five of seven.) Then it’s Texas Tech, who has been one of my favorites ever since they pulled off an impressive road win over Houston on February 1st despite the refs ejecting one of their best players at the beginning of the game for no reason. But since February 5th, they’ve only beaten two tournament teams – very bubbly Baylor and an ice-cold Kansas team, by a combined seven points. I’m going to say that Drake really pushes them and they can’t find that extra gear that they had earlier on in the year.
One more big upset to envision: Drake over St. John’s. Look, the Johnnies are the better team, they’re hot, and they should win eight or nine of 10 times. But they won’t this time, because they are going to be carrying the weight on their back of the failures of Johnnie’s past. They haven’t won a tournament game since 2000, and they’ll be hearing that all week. Drake, on the other hand, got the monkey off their back in 2021. That’s 21 years less weight on them. Pitino has the most unenjoyable experience of his life in a 61-59 loss. And so we have an all-mid-major Elite 8 matchup with Drake and Colorado State. America!!
EAST
Saint Mary’s is a particularly special defensive team in this year’s field. Like some friends of MMM say, it’s fun to watch when they decide you just aren’t scoring anymore. And it’s not just defense (second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to BartTorvik) but it’s how they rebound (top ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage) and tempo (sixth slowest team in the country.) Why is that last part important? Because in a potential game against, say, Alabama – the fastest team in the country – in the second round, a team that has more athleticism and offensive playmaking, it reduces the amount of possessions that Bama can extend its advantages. It’s a big ask, but Alabama has played only two teams with a better adjusted defensive efficiency than SMC, beating Houston way back in November but more recently losing to Tennessee a few weeks ago.
So let’s say Saint Mary’s wins its first two games against Vandy and Bama. Standing in its way in the Sweet 16? Another completely underappreciated team, the VCU Rams. The Rams, who ran through an A-10 conference that is always tough but that NCAA Big Brother decided must have fewer bids going forward, has just won a game against a red-hot BYU team. In a game with completely contrasting styles, VCU’s top eFG% defense and two-point defense in the country has stopped one of the most efficient teams in the country because well, defense wins championships and games now, I’ve decided. Wisconsin presented an even tougher challenge but they lost for the same reason they lost the Big Ten title game and a few other games this season – going ice cold from the outside, where they rely on getting so much of their offense. In a game between two awesome duos – Marciulionis and Murauskus for the Gaels, Shulga and Bamisile for the Rams – give me Saint Mary’s, the more consistent team and a more well-rounded one, too.
I have no issue envisioning Saint Mary’s beating just about anyone from the top side of the bracket – very inconsistent Arizona and Oregon teams, a Miss State team that’s lost five of seven and the two wins were against non-tourney teams. Everyone, that is, except for Duke. Duke is an exceptional, consistent team with awesome size and length and NBA talent just about everywhere you look. There are eight top-100 recruits on the roster. Saint Mary’s doesn’t have a single one. This is about as good as I can do: the Gaels hound Cooper Flagg, who just isn’t his same pre-injury self. They’re able to isolate Kon Kneuppel and place more burden on him to score a little more, and use their rebounding skill to offset the size of 7’2” Khaman Maluach and Duke who are surprisingly not amazing at rebounding. In a slow game that absolutely drives Duke insane, they go cold from the field in the second half and allow Saint Mary’s to crawl back into the game. A key slip and fall by Cooper Flagg in the dying moments of a tie game allows Saint Mary’s to bury a game winning shot for a 53-51 win. And the Gaels become our third mid-major Final Four member!
MIDWEST
Is Gonzaga a mid-major? Yes, despite all that we have told you? Well if you insist on this silliness, you’re going to want to jump on this horse. We’ll give you this: the committee has given Gonzaga the ol’ mid-major treatment. This is the 11th best team in the country according to BartTorvik, and the 9th best team in KenPom, but got an 8-seed. If they can pick off a Houston team in the second round that still has some doubters about if they can actually win the Big One, they can easily go from there to the Final Four.
If you don’t see them as a mid-major, it gets a bit trickier. Some would look at 10-seed Utah State, but I’m not too sold on them, especially with the way they’ve been playing lately. I’m still looking at the top half of the bracket, specifically at McNeese, who might be more of an unknown. How good are they? They’re not 30-3 like they were last year, nor do they have a signature win like the wins over VCU and Michigan last year. They lost six games. They were also competitive in every single one of those losses, including road games at Alabama and Mississippi State. They’ve lost once since that three-point loss in Starkville. Most of the roster was a part of last year’s team which got thrashed by Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament, a year older, wiser and more athletic. Are they going to be distracted by the news that Will Wade is leaving after the tournament to take over at NC State? Or does that band them together, or allow them to play more freely?
I’m relying on those intangibles for McNeese to take a win over Clemson, a very strong team that’s better on paper and might be caught off guard by the atypical athleticism of a team out of the Southland Conference. Meanwhile, in a popular upset, High Point’s extremely veteran team catches fire from the outside against Purdue and is able to navigate Purdue’s three great playmakers (Smith, Loyer, TKR) and exploit holes elsewhere on the roster. In an awesome 12-13 matchup (which lots of people see happening!) I’m going to take the better roster, which I believe to be McNeese’s, having several players that could have gone to play Power 5 basketball but instead stayed with Cowboy Will Wade.
McNeese then takes on Houston Gonzaga in the next round. Gonzaga also pulls off one of the aforementioned 8-over-1 upsets. And like those other teams, Gonzaga will lose the next game because unlike in past years, it won’t have enough shooting to cover for when Graham Ike gets put in foul trouble by an aggressive McNeese interior. Finally, as much as I’d love to set up the all-MM matchup between McNeese and Utah State, for some reason I don’t have very much faith in this year’s Aggies. So, it’ll probably be McNeese and Tennessee. This one is as imbalanced on paper as you’d expect so I’m going to rely on my one final trump card: the Tennessee Final Four curse. It was actually me who cursed them and I have an impeccable record at cursing teams. Tennessee’s inexplicable drought continues to the benefit of McNeese, who sends off Will Wade to NC State with (at worst) a Final Four appearance.
