We have a pair of massive games in the NFL on Saturday, with three of the teams jostling for spots in the playoffs and the fourth attempting to improve its position.
Two of the league’s hottest teams get the action underway when the Houston Texans visit the Los Angeles Chargers (4:30 p.m. ET on NFL Network).
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, the Green Bay Packers host the Baltimore Ravens (8 p.m. ET on Peacock).
We’ll break down both games and look at betting angles and offer our favorite plays, as well as takes on DFS.
Ben Solak, Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Liz Loza and Eric Moody offer betting and daily fantasy insights.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:HOU-LAC: Picks | Props | DFS tips | TrendsBAL-GB: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
The Houston Texans have won seven straight but are a game back of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lead the AFC South. The Texans squeaked by the Las Vegas Raiders last week and now head west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers
The playoff-bound Chargers have won four straight and are a game back of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. Justin Herbert and Co. blasted the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16 and are a 1.5-point favorite Saturday versus the Texans.
Game bet
Chargers Moneyline
Maldonado: The Chargers’ defense is built to frustrate Stroud, especially with Houston’s road efficiency dipping. Plus, Justin Herbert has more ways to survive pressure and steal a drive late. In a game likely decided by field goals and execution, I’ll take the home team outright.
Week 17 picks
Notable player props, bets
Justin Herbert over 23.5 yards rushing (-112)
Bowen: Herbert has rushed for 42 or more yards in two of his last four games, and the Texans’ pass rush can force him to eject the pocket. Look for Herbert to pull the ball down as a runner on second-reaction plays.
Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (-109)
Loza: Herbert performed spectacularly in Week 16. He was also facing the Cowboys’ defense. Prior to that outing, the Chargers’ signal caller had recorded an INT in four straight contests. In fact, he’s recorded 12 on the season (tied for the fourth-most with J.J. McCarthy). Meanwhile, Houston’s defense has recorded 17 picks (tied for the third-most, ironically with the Bolts) thus far into 2025.
Passing props
Omarion Hampton over 62.5 rushing yards
Moody: Hampton has logged at least 13 carries in three straight games since returning from his ankle injury, averaging 67.3 rushing yards over that span. He could see an expanded workload if Kimani Vidal is limited with a neck injury. Houston’s defensive front is tough, but it allowed Ashton Jeanty to rush for 128 yards in Week 16 behind a below-average Raiders offensive line.
Rushing props
Receiving props
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($15,600). The Texans can scheme for Collins versus the Chargers’ zone-heavy coverages. Lots of in-breakers here at the intermediate levels for Collins, who has 85 or more yards receiving in three of his last four games.
Also in my lineup: Omarion Hampton ($9,800). You’re playing the volume and potential scoring upside with Hampton. Since returning from IR in Week 15, Hampton has at least 15 touches in each of his last three games. Need some low red zone carries here versus the Texans, too.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Nico Collins ($15,600). I’m with Bowen on this one. Collins is the Texans’ most decisive playmaker. He’s coming off of an underwhelming performance in a soft matchup and, in a game with the post-season implications, is a good bet to bounce back.
Also in my lineup: Texans D/ST ($3,000). Prior to his Week 16 bounce-back, Herbert had struggled mightily since Joe Alt’s season ended, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game (QB22, just behind C.J. Stroud’s 14.1 fantasy points per game) from Weeks 10 through 16. The Texans’ defense played down to Vegas last week, but should rebound and quiet the Chargers’ in Week 17.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Justin Herbert ($15,000). Herbert’s raw volume plus rushing equity still wins, even under pressure.
Also in my lineup: Chargers D/ST ($3,800). This is aligning with the Chargers moneyline and the under. Herbert plus the defense is the cleanest way to capture most of the scoring without guessing which skill player spikes.
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Omarion Hampton ($14,700). If Kimani Vidal can’t go, which is expected, then Hampton should have a 20-plus touch day. The Texans’ defense is generally strong against the run, but can struggle against teams with heavy personnel, like the Chargers. Hampton will also see his route share double, as even if he loses snaps to RB3 Hassan Haskins, it will mostly be pass protection work. Hampton has 100-plus yard and 2-plus touchdown days in his right-tail outcomes this week.
Also in my lineup: Tre’ Harris ($3,400). Rookie wide receiver Harris has been getting more and more involved in the offense over the last few weeks. He is an easy fifth among Chargers pass catchers in salary, but is coming off of consecutive five-target outings and receiving praise from the coaching staff for his increased understanding of the offense. He may get jammed a ton by the field because he makes so many lineups work, but it’s hard to say no to the value.
All of ESPN. All in one place.
Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Chargers have covered four straight games overall and four straight home games.
The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
The Chargers are 16-8 ATS as favorites under Jim Harbaugh (9-3 ATS as home favorites with three straight covers).
Unders are 32-17 in Texans games under DeMeco Ryans, tied with the Chiefs for the highest under rate since 2023 (10-5 this season).
The Packers are coming off a devastating loss to the Chicago Bears, but the Detroit Lions somewhat softened the blow by losing to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday, sending the Packers to the playoffs where they are currently the No. 7 seed. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on the outside looking in. They need a win to stay alive in the AFC North and will need some help on Sunday if a winner-take-all matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18 is to come to fruition.
Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite In Saturday’s matchup, but questions abound at QB, as Jordan Love is out for the Packers while Lamar Jackson is doubtful to play for the Ravens.
Game bet
Under 40.5 (-120)
Maldonado: Both teams are top five in points allowed per drive, and neither offense profiles as explosive right now. Baltimore struggles to finish drives, Green Bay limits negative plays, and both teams lean run-heavy when protecting game flow. Add QB uncertainty and a spread climbing into a low total, and this sets up for long possessions, few short fields, and field goal attempts.
Week 17 picks
Notable player props, bets
Passing props
Derrick Henry over 72.5 rushing yards
Moody: Henry has accumulated at least 90 rushing yards in three consecutive games. The Ravens would be wise to lean on the running game since the Packers’ defensive front has ranked 27th in run-stop win rate since Week 12. Henry sits at 1,253 rushing yards this season and can put himself in rare company, needing just 64 more yards to crack the top 10 all-time and pass Tony Dorsett.
Rushing props
Josh Jacobs under 14.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Loza: Jacobs has gone under this number in two straight efforts. While the Packers figure to focus on the ground game, Emanuel Wilson, who is coming off a fantastically efficient effort, should steal touches in an attempt to keep Jacobs healthy after the Packers clinched a playoff berth with Detroit’s Christmas day loss.
Receiving props
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Derrick Henry ($16,800) feels like the safe play with both teams working through injuries. Henry rushed for a season-best 128 yards in the Week 16 loss to the New England Patriots and has topped the 100-yard mark in two straight. Should be a heavy volume night for Henry in Green Bay.
Also in my lineup: Brandon McManus ($5,000). I’m taking the under in this game, so let’s look at special teams. McManus has at least three field goals in back-to-back games, with one from 50-plus yards. And Green Bay really struggled in the red zone last week versus Chicago, which signals more opportunities for the kicking game.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Zay Flowers ($14,100) is Baltimore’s constant, owning nearly 30% target share, producing regardless of quarterback. In a low total game, his short area usage and route volume give him upside.
Also in my lineup: Derrick Henry ($11,200) is the anchor in Baltimore’s game script, even with a slightly reduced share because he commands high leverage carries and carries touchdown equity. If QB play is limited or conservative, Henry’s volume stabilizes.
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Malik Willis ($13,500). With Love ruled out, Willis is an auto-smash as the starting quarterback, as he has Tier 1 rushing ability for the position. I will have some Willis lineups without any pass catchers included in the flex in an effort to get unique and anticipate an extremely run-heavy approach from Green Bay.
Also in my lineup: Keaton Mitchell ($3,200). The Ravens are clearly committed to using Mitchell in a timeshare with Derrick Henry, as the fourth quarter against the Patriots demonstrated. I’m happy to roster Mitchell for the expected 8-10 touches, but even if his role is minimized, his game-breaking speed makes him a desirable flex play for the one-play touchdown pop.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Derrick Henry ($16,800). Henry has managed at least 20 carries and either found the end zone or posted triple-digit rushing stats in each of his last three outings with Tyler Huntley as Baltimore’s starter. Trust the volume in Week 17.
Also in my lineup: Keaton Mitchell ($3,200). Mitchell rotated ahead of Henry during the last 12 minutes of Baltimore’s outing versus New England last Sunday night. He’s managed at least eight carries in back-to-back efforts. The speedster could surprise against a Packers’ defense that continues to struggle with injuries.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Ravens are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season.
The Packers are 0-4 ATS after a loss this season.
Lamar Jackson is 34-17-2 ATS in his career on the road, including 10-2 ATS as a road underdog (8-4 outright). Jackson is 12-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (10-5 outright).
The Ravens are 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
