The College Football Playoff semifinals kick off Thursday with Miami facing Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), followed Friday by the Peach Bowl between Oregon and Indiana (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The four remaining teams have either never won a national title or spent decades chasing another, yet each has reason to believe its time is here.
Below, let’s examine the reasons why the four semifinalists should be optimistic as the Jan. 19 national title game inches closer.
Fiesta Bowl | No. 10 seed: Miami Hurricanes (12-2)
Rush offense | Before bowing up against the run in the first two rounds of the CFP, Ole Miss allowed 150.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Miami has leaned on the run in its road win at Texas A&M and Cotton Bowl victory over defending national champion Ohio State, rushing for 328 yards on five yards per attempt.
Junior running back Mark Fletcher is averaging 81 yards per game during the CFP, and the offensive line has largely controlled the line of scrimmage. Miami’s physicality on defense — led by standout edge-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. — is well documented, but the offense has taken a backseat. That could change if the Hurricanes overpower the Rebels on the ground.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (13-1)
Trinidad Chambliss | Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza might be the best quarterback in the field, but Chambliss is the most exciting. His fourth-quarter brilliance against Georgia was the main reason Ole Miss won its quarterfinal game, and he’ll need to be just as exceptional against Bain and a loaded Miami defensive front. He very well might.
Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Hurricanes generated a staggering 60.9 percent pressure rate in the first half against Ohio State (41.2 percent in the second half). Per Pro Football Focus data, Chambliss has completed 54.5 percent of his pass attempts, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, when under pressure this season. On those plays, he also has more scrambles (15) than sacks (12). Chambliss can neutralize Miami’s strongest unit by doing what he’s done all season.
Peach Bowl | No. 5 seed: Oregon Ducks (13-1)
It’s hard to beat a good team twice. | The Rebels’ Sugar Bowl win over Georgia continued a trend Oregon will hope to join on Friday when it plays Indiana in a rematch from a 30-20 regular-season loss. Four of the five rematches in CFP history have gone to the loser of the first game, including two this season — Alabama’s road win at Oklahoma in the first round and Ole Miss over Georgia.
Oregon has won its first two CFP games in completely different ways, exploding for 51 points against James Madison then putting forth a defensive clinic a shutout victory over Texas Tech. Indiana averaged just 4.8 yards per play in the teams’ first game, its lowest of the season, and Oregon is more than capable of giving the offense fits again.
No. 1 seed: 1 Indiana Hoosiers (14-0)
Defense can make Oregon one-dimensional. | The Ducks gained just 64 yards on 47 attempts (1.4 yards per carry) against a stout Texas Tech defensive front, and the Hoosiers are just as impenetrable against the run. In the first meeting, Indiana held Oregon to 81 yards — 2.7 yards per carry.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked a season-high six times in the October loss. The Ducks will play directly into the Hoosiers’ hands by leaning into a pass-heavy plan. But based on Indiana’s defense, Oregon might not have another choice.
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