Dan Graziano
Ben Solak
Ben Solak
ESPN
Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
The NFL wild-card round is complete after the Texans scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to defeat the Steelers on Monday night. To begin the playoffs Saturday, the Rams narrowly edged the Panthers before the Bears pulled off a wild comeback against the Packers. On Sunday, the Bills held off the Jaguars, the 49ers took down the defending champion Eagles and the Patriots won a low-scoring affair over the Chargers.
What are the main lessons and takeaways from each wild-card matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the opening round and look forward from all angles. For each wild-card game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let’s jump in, making sense of the potential offensive changes for the Chargers and Eagles, the Bills’ Super Bowl window, the Jaguars’ rushing attack, Caleb Williams’ growth, Bryce Young’s extension and Aaron Rodgers’ future.
Jump to:HOU-PIT | LAC-NE | SF-PHIBUF-JAX | GB-CHI | LAR-CAR
‘It won’t matter who the Steelers’ coach is until they get a real quarterback.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. You can love Mike Tomlin, fire Mike Tomlin, give Mike Tomlin a lifetime contract or whatever. It’s not going to matter until he or whoever succeeds him gets a real quarterback.
The Aaron Rodgers hive would have you believe that the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer elevated this offense, but he really didn’t. He finished 23rd in Total QBR this season after finishing 25th last season and 26th in 2022, his final season in Green Bay. (Remember, he didn’t make it past the fourth play in 2023.)
The Steelers did what they could with this offense, built around a quarterback who averaged a league-low 2.59 seconds to throw and one legitimate receiving threat in DK Metcalf. They improved in several metrics over last season’s Justin Fields/Russell Wilson offense, but they still settled in at 15th in offensive efficiency and 16th in offensive EPA. The Steelers tried to avoid this problem in 2022, when they drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round. But that didn’t work out, which is why they’ve been on this mediocre-veteran hamster wheel the past couple of years.
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Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud couldn’t have played much worse than he did Monday night, yet he still made big-time throws on third down when the Texans needed them. It has been quite a while since the Steelers had a quarterback who could deliver those kinds of difference-making plays, and you don’t have to watch the likes of Josh Allen or Matthew Stafford or Drake Maye to appreciate how deficient the Steelers have been at the QB position since the start of Ben Roethlisberger’s decline.
Whatever the Steelers do or don’t do with Tomlin, and no matter what Rodgers decides about whether he wants to keep playing, Pittsburgh shouldn’t bring back Rodgers. They’re not going any further with him at 43 than they did with him at 42. He’s a bandage at best at this point in his career, and the Steelers can’t keep going with bandages. They need a transplant.
Pittsburgh’s coaches should actually be commended for the job they did to get this team as far as it went. Tomlin should be commended for basically always getting his teams as far as the roster should go. The issue is that the Steelers need to start building better rosters, and the main problem they’ve had in doing that is their inability to find a real, lasting solution at the most important position on the field.
If they find their version of Maye — or even someone like Stroud — in the 2026 draft, Tomlin’s going to look like a much better coach to the disgruntled Steelers fans than he has in a while. If they don’t, I’m sorry to tell you, this is the best you’re going to get, no matter who coaches the team. — Graziano
Can the Texans offense survive without wide receiver Nico Collins?
The Texans finished the job against a tough Steelers defense, and even though it wasn’t pretty, it rarely is against Pittsburgh. Mission accomplished. But they weren’t without loss. Collins was carted off the field because of a concussion in the third quarter — his second of the season. Houston plays again Sunday, so it’s a short week and multiple concussions in a season often lead to longer recovery times through the protocol. It’s hard to imagine the Texans will have their star receiver against the Patriots.
The Texans are deep at the position. In Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins, Houston has two more big-bodied receivers who can work over the middle of the field. Veteran Christian Kirk stepped up to create explosive plays in this game, putting up a career-high 144 yards. And rookie Jaylin Noel is capable of filling Kirk’s shoes in the slot if Collins’ absence forces Kirk to play more outside. The bar for the Texans’ offense is objectively low, as their defense is so terrifying that it can control and win games on its own — the Texans’ defense outscored the Steelers’ offense 14-6 on their own Monday.
But without Collins, expect the Patriots to play tons of man coverage across the board … if their star cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, is available Sunday after sustaining a concussion against the Chargers.
There is big injury news to watch in this game either way. But the Texans in particular feel like an offense that scrapes by more often than they dominate. And now, their best weapon probably will be unavailable for the divisional round. If there ever was a legacy game for the Texans’ defense (more than beating up on a terrible Steelers offense), it’s the one that’s coming. — Solak
0:26
C.J. Stroud finds Christian Kirk for Texans’ first score
C.J. Stroud throws a 6-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk to give the Texans a 7-3 lead vs. the Steelers.
‘The Patriots STILL haven’t beaten anybody good!’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. Oh sure, they won. Which is all that matters at this point. But their performance did not scream “No. 2 seed/Super Bowl contender,” and it did little to tamp down the notion of them being an untested team that could struggle against better competition. The Chargers are now only the third team the Patriots have beaten this season that made the playoffs. One of the other two was the Panthers, who finished their season 8-10 after losing to the Rams on Saturday. And the final one was the Bills, to whom they also lost to later in the season.
The Patriots made some plays when they had to against the Chargers. They made their field goal attempts, which really matters in games that are touchdown-free until the final 10 minutes. But they were also sloppy with the ball and didn’t generate much of their usual exciting, explosive offense. The Chargers’ defense was one of the best at limiting explosive plays this season, so that might have been a part of it. But it would have been hard to watch this game and not think a team with a functional offense could have knocked out New England in the first round.
So what happens now? Did quarterback Drake Maye & Co. get their stinker out of the way early and survive it? Do they learn from this and play better next week against the Steelers or Texans? Or does this advanced level of competition do them in, the way their critics feared all season that it might?
We’ll have to wait a week for the answers. Coach Mike Vrabel has pressed every correct button in his first season as the Patriots’ coach, and MVP contender Maye has not let anything bother him. They’ll get either the Steelers and a chance to avenge a Week 3 loss in which they turned the ball over five times, or a Texans team that would be coming in on a 10-game win streak and features an even tougher defense than the Chargers.
This is the survive-and-advance time of the year, and the fact that the Patriots won ugly doesn’t disqualify them from winning it all. It just adds a little bit of strength to the arguments of those who continue to believe this team is playing over its head. — Graziano
0:24
Patriots deck Herbert to force fumble
K’Lavon Chaisson drops Justin Herbert and forces a fumble.
Why haven’t the Justin Herbert-led Chargers won a playoff game?
Herbert has officially gone 0-3 in his first three postseason starts. He is only the fourth quarterback this century to go winless in his first three postseason starts, joining Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford.
The general NFL consuming public is reasonably suspicious of Herbert among the modern quarterbacking elites, as he doesn’t have the wins that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen have, let alone QBs such as Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy. Though Herbert didn’t play a great game Sunday, it’s hard to construct an argument that he lost the game for the Chargers.
The Chargers clearly need new interior offensive linemen. Though the injuries at tackle submarined the whole line, all three starters on the interior were the expected ones preseason: Bradley Bozeman at center, Zion Johnson at left guard and Mekhi Becton at right guard. Bozeman and Johnson have not been starting-caliber players for years, and Becton is only an average-level starter.
On 12 of Herbert’s 18 starts in 2025, the Chargers gave up a quick pressure rate (pressures in under 2.5 seconds) greater than 15%. The league average for quick pressure rate this season was 13.8%. The Chargers have also been consistently outschemed under coordinator Greg Roman. His usage of wonky personnel and diverse running schemes is valuable, but the Chargers haven’t delivered against playoff-caliber defenses. Though the offensive line was dreadful, few if any efforts were made to change the game around the offensive line. No screens, rollouts, trick plays. When was the last time the Chargers truly outschemed their opponent?
Of course, that doesn’t explain away the four-interception game against the Texans in the 2024 postseason, nor the collapse against the Jaguars in the 2022 postseason. Taking the collective weight of those three losses and calling Herbert a postseason disappointment is a fair assessment. But of the three quarterbacks he has joined (and, not for nothing, Peyton Manning would also qualify if we included the 1999 season), he’s clearly more of a Stafford character than a Dalton one.
Postseason success will come to Herbert when he plays for a more well-rounded team. As unsatisfying as it is to say, it’s the truth. — Solak
‘The 49ers can make a legit Super Bowl run.’ Overreaction?
Yes, overreaction. The 49ers are an easy team to like and respect. They are TOUGH tough. They’ve been without their two best players on defense (linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa) for months. They played more than a month without quarterback Brock Purdy. Tight end George Kittle was in and out of the lineup all season — and he’s now out for however long their season continues after tearing his Achilles in Philadelphia. It is a miracle that they’re one of the eight divisional-round teams, and they deserve admiration for the extent to which they’ve fashioned chicken salad out of … well, everything that has happened to them this year.
But the 49ers have to go play in Seattle, and we just saw that game last weekend. Playing the Seahawks at home with the division title and the NFC’s top seed on the line, the Niners put up a meager 173 yards of total offense in a 13-3 loss. Now, the Seahawks will be at home and coming off a bye, while the Niners will limp in after a physically brutal win over the defending Super Bowl champs.
Will it help that left tackle Trent Williams, who didn’t play in Week 18, is expected to play next week? Sure. But the 49ers still won’t have Kittle, and their run game isn’t very good without him. Running back Christian McCaffrey remains a playmaker for Purdy in the passing game, but they averaged 3.5 yards per rush attempt in Sunday’s win. That’s not out of character for the Niners, as they averaged 3.8 in the regular season (30th in the NFL). They’re limited in what they can do on offense, and the Seahawks have the kind of defense that can take advantage of that.
There was a point in the fourth quarter when I thought, “Whoever wins this game is getting smoked in the next round,” and I kind of stand by it. The 49ers are just about out of players, and the Eagles couldn’t do anything against a team that was just about out of players.
It was a fitting end for a 2025 Eagles team that was never as many believed it to be. Even as they marched down for the go-ahead score, it never felt like they would get it. A child born during the third quarter of this game could have figured out the Eagles were going to Dallas Goedert on the final play, and they did despite him being triple-covered. It was peak 2025 Eagles — no creativity, no juice. They weren’t a great team; they just won a lousy division. Meanwhile, the Seahawks won the only division in NFL history in which three teams won at least 12 games. Kudos to Kyle Shanahan, Robert Saleh and Co. for getting as far as they got with their roster crumbling around them. But it’s only getting tougher from here. — Graziano
0:28
49ers stop Eagles on 4th down to clinch victory
Eric Kendricks makes a great play on defense to stop the Eagles from scoring and secure the 49ers’ 23-19 win vs. the Eagles.
The lingering question: Is the Eagles’ offensive breakup inevitable?
There is no worse-kept secret in the NFL than the frustration internally and externally with the Eagles’ offensive coaching this season. Coordinator Kevin Patullo, promoted to replace the outgoing Kellen Moore, has been a longtime assistant for coach Nick Sirianni. But Patullo was evidently underqualified for his role. Wide receiver A.J. Brown was visibly upset to varying degrees throughout the year. Running back Saquon Barkley was not nearly as productive as he was last season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts continued to struggle with throwing to the middle of the field.
There will almost certainly be a new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia next season — the fifth in five years. But perhaps the greatest question is if anything else will be new in the Eagles’ offense? Brown, who went over 20 minutes of game clock in the second half without a target and was seen arguing with Sirianni on the sideline, was a rumored target for many teams at the trade deadline. His contract represents a substantial dead cap ($66.9 million) if he’s traded, and he would likely have to collaborate with the Eagles’ front office and finagle the finances if he demands a trade.
Other than Brown, tight end (and key red zone option) Dallas Goedert will be a free agent. At 31, he’ll want to cash in on what probably will be his final good years, and the Eagles don’t have a ton of cap space to pay him. But they also don’t have a good TE2 waiting in the wings. Right tackle Lane Johnson, a franchise mainstay for more than a decade, missed the end of the season because of a foot injury and will turn 36 this spring. How much longer does he want to play — and how effective would he be? It feels like a bigger change than a mere coordinator switch is on the horizon for Philadelphia’s offense as the Eagles look to get back on top of the NFC. — Solak
‘This really is Josh Allen’s best chance to win the Super Bowl.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. This has been the #narrative since the preseason. The Bills were set up with one of the easiest-looking schedules. They’ve played one game all season outside of their home time zone. Patrick Mahomes missed the playoffs. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson missed the playoffs. Allen and the Bills, the theory went, had the road cleared for them and were in line to finally get over that postseason hump.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation. This season’s Bills turned out to be … not as good as usual. The defense never really got it together and still looks very vulnerable. Jacksonville ran for over 100 yards outside the tackles in Sunday’s game, the first time a Jaguars team has done that in more than three years. Buffalo is incredibly banged-up and short-handed on both sides of the ball. It didn’t have an answer for Trevor Lawrence until the stunning tipped-ball interception that locked down Sunday’s win. The Bills will likely be a road underdog next weekend.
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But what the Bills do have is guts and experience — and Allen, who plays with multiple simultaneous injuries and doesn’t have a star WR1 but somehow finds a way to do whatever it takes. Yes, even if that’s a 10-yard tush push on fourth-and-1 at the opponent’s 11-yard line with a minute left in a playoff game. The Bills have a winning culture, put in place by coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane, who both get a lot of grief for not getting over the hump. But they have built a postseason mainstay out of a team that — their critics may forget — had missed the playoffs 17 years in a row before it got there.
Jacksonville had the better team this season. Honestly, it looked very much as if it had the better team Sunday. But Allen and the Bills willed their way to a win, and they’re still going. There is still no Mahomes dragon to slay. There is no team left in the field with anywhere close to Buffalo’s postseason experience. This is the year without the dominant team. This is the NFL playoffs, where no one knows who’s supposed to win; where everyone’s favorite team is an NFC 5-seed that barely beat a sub-.500 team in the first round. There is no way we can rule out a Josh Allen Super Bowl run, even if this is far from the best team he has ever brought to the playoffs. Someone has to win this thing.
Find me a team that has been through more than the Bills. Find me a team that’s hungrier. Find me a team that’s more certain it can do what it takes to win games this time of year. Find me another team with Josh Allen. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why didn’t the Jaguars run it more?
About halfway through the third quarter, you, me and every armchair coach in America were wondering the same thing: Why weren’t the Jaguars relying on the running game? Jacksonville was gaining almost 10 yards per carry through their first seven drives, and the deficit was never greater than one score. Lawrence was not bad, but he was certainly erratic, and it felt like the Jaguars’ passing game might be one big mistake away from disaster.
Well, the Jags rolled down the field on their next two drives, scoring touchdowns on 11- and 10-play sequences that collectively took up 11 minutes of clock. The running game was sprinkled in, but it was Lawrence ripping throws with accuracy and aggression that created the scoring opportunities. During the back half of the regular season, the Jaguars had been an extremely one-dimensional offense, ranking fourth in success rate on dropbacks but 31st in success rate on designed runs. They were third in EPA per play on dropbacks but 30th in EPA per play on designed runs. It’s hard to stop dancing with the one that brought you, even when the Bills were so willing to play with light boxes and surrender ground against the run.
0:24
Travis Etienne Jr. shakes off a tackle attempt to put Jags back up late in 4th
Trevor Lawrence finds Travis Etienne Jr., who powers through a tackle attempt to give the Jaguars a lead with a little over four minutes remaining.
Even despite his shaky accuracy and first-quarter interception, Lawrence had a 48.5% dropback success rate (Allen was 42.1%) on the day. The Jaguars certainly could have run the ball more in an effort to shorten the game and minimize the number of second-half possessions Allen got. And I’d make a strong guess that coach Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone will invest serious offseason resources into bolstering the offensive line to ensure they have the sort of running game that they can trust all season long.
At the end of the day, the Jaguars lost a brutally close game to an excellent Bills team. As with all losing teams, there were plenty of little things they could have done better. But someone has to lose the ballgames, and Jacksonville — despite its truly excellent season and legitimate Year 1 leap under Coen — drew the shorter straw Sunday. — Solak
‘Caleb Williams is going to win the MVP award next season.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. The Bears fell behind 21-3 at halftime. Williams completed less than 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions. And despite pouring it on in the second half, the Bears were down 27-24 at the two-minute warning — at home as the No. 2 seed — to their oldest and most hated rival. It was all setting up for a massive Bears playoff letdown. Until they won.
Williams hit DJ Moore for a 25-yard go-ahead touchdown pass with 1:43 left to complete a furious comeback, and for the seventh time this season, Chicago won a game it trailed in the final two minutes of regulation. Williams can put you through the full spectrum of emotion on literally any snap. But you watched him pick up a fourth-and-8 and a third-and-10 on his way to the touchdown pass that cut the lead to three and turned the Soldier Field crowd all the way up to 11, and you probably thought something along the lines of, “Yeah, there’s something magic about this kid.” You watched him get the ball back after the Packers’ missed a field goal attempt with 2:56 to go and you thought, “Yeah, I kind of think he’s got this.”
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Williams can make throws other quarterbacks can’t make, and he appears to be the kind of player whose pulse chills all the way out in the moments that send the pulses of others through the roof. That’s why even when it’s not going great, you feel as if there’s a good chance it eventually will. With Williams in his second season as an NFL quarterback and Ben Johnson in his first year as an NFL head coach, Chicago went 11-6, won a division out of which the other three teams made last season’s playoffs and still has a chance to win the whole thing. The Bears have young skill position talent all over the place around Williams. They can spend their offseason beefing up the defense, too. Is there a compelling reason to believe they’ll be worse next season than they were this season? Nope.
Williams should continue improving with this group around him and Johnson coaching him. If next season’s Bears win 12 or more, and Williams wins five or six of those in the final two minutes, he can be the darling of the MVP voting body. There are a lot of “ifs” there, sure, but this isn’t far-fetched. — Graziano
The lingering question: What’s wrong — and right — with Ben Johnson’s fourth-down decision-making?
The fourth-down haters were out in full force at the end of the first half, as Johnson’s Bears went 1-for-4 there, including a failed fourth-and-5 at their 32-yard line. This was a particularly aggressive call. The NFL Next Gen Stats model favored a punt, while the ESPN model very, very narrowly favored a “go.”
Should Johnson have gone for all those early fourth downs? I’m not sure. The defense felt as if it had no stops in it, but as evidenced by the second half, it did. It’s hard to know from the outside what goes into every decision.
What we can say confidently is that the Bears were making massive, easy mistakes on fourth down. The interception targeting Luther Burden III on fourth-and-6 came because the rookie receiver was confused at the line. The second-half fourth-and-1 failure in the red zone was a result of a blown pass protection. Even the fourth-and-5, way backed up, looked like a huge Burden catch-and-run … until the ball was tipped at the line.
1:19
Should Rams be concerned after tight win over Panthers?
Alex Smith, Tedy Bruschi, Rex Ryan and Randy Moss discuss the Rams’ 34-31 wild-card win over the Panthers.
The story of the Bears’ win — and the Bears’ season — isn’t one of decisions; it’s one of execution. Chicago made a lot of sloppy mistakes on offense to start the season and improved later in the schedule. In this first playoff game for a young offense, the Bears made plenty of easy mistakes and improved as the game progressed. These cardiac Bears are living by the hair on their chinny chin chins, and its hard to win all of your playoff games that way. But they are doing exactly what a young team needs to do in the playoffs: settling down, fighting back and learning what it takes to win January football. — Solak
‘Bryce Young is going to get a top-10 QB contract this offseason.’ Overreaction?
Yes, overreaction. Look, massive respect to Young and the Panthers here. The Rams won, but Carolina made all of us who thought it could pull off an upset look good. Young was fearless and fun and everything teams want their quarterbacks to be in big moments. He was 21-for-40 for 264 yards and a touchdown pass, and he also ran for a touchdown. He hit Jalen Coker for the go-ahead TD with 2:39 to go, only to watch his defense inexplicably go into prevent mode with way too much time left, as the Rams marched down the field for the winning score. But Young did everything he could to try to keep his season — in which he threw for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions for a division champion — alive. Yes, an 8-9 division champion, but still.
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All of that said, it’s too soon for the Panthers to commit. If Young wants to sign a Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield type of deal, go ahead and do that, Carolina. Well worth it, given the promise Young showed this season and the investment the team has already made in him. But if he wants Tua Tagovailoa money? Uh-uh.
Young is signed through 2026, and the Panthers have an option for 2027, which I feel extremely confident they will pick up because there’s no reason not to do so. They’ll basically have him for $30 million over the next two years if they do that. That’s a totally reasonable investment that would allow them to gather more data and decide whether he’s the franchise guy they believed him to be when they traded up to select him first in 2023. The fifth-year option (and the franchise tag, frankly, if they want to do that in 2028) afford the team the opportunity to make Young prove it again.
Young doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who needs the affirmation that would come with the long-term deal. I’m sure he knows a ton of things he can do better and looks forward to a chance to work on them. Heck, he’s better off waiting and having an even better year in 2026 and negotiating off that. Big hat tip to Young and the Panthers, but it’s still way early. — Graziano
The lingering question: What have the two games against the Panthers taught us about the Rams?
There are plenty of big differences between the Panthers’ regular-season upset of the Rams and their near postseason repeat. The connecting thread is how successfully the Panthers tested the Rams’ defensive backs in coverage. In the first matchup, it was with shot plays late in drives to score big touchdowns; in this game, the Panthers ripped off explosives to Tetairoa McMillan and Coker. The ball came out fast from Young, which helped neutralize the Rams’ pass rush, as Carolina wagered on its supersized receivers against the Rams’ smaller defensive backs. It generally worked.
Nickelback Quentin Lake returned to the starting lineup for the first time since Week 11, and the Panthers immediately tested him, too. Lake was targeted 10 times and allowed 7 receptions for 83 yards, as the big slot Coker in particular gave him trouble (5 catches on 5 targets for 62 yards). As the Rams advance, I’d expect more teams to test that secondary in 50-50 and contested situations, whether deep down the sideline or in the middle of the field. It isn’t a big group, and physical receivers give it challenges accordingly.
0:45
Drake Maye drops a dime to Hunter Henry for a TD
Drake Maye drops a dime to Hunter Henry for a TD
Of course, the Rams have struggled with turnovers against Carolina, as well: three takeaways in the first game, then one (plus the blocked punt) in the second game. In general, the Panthers do well discouraging the play-action pass and forcing Matthew Stafford to play more patiently. And when he plays patiently, he’s forced to scramble more or take more checkdowns — not his preferred style of play. — Solak
