Jeff Legwold
Seth Walder
Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
DENVER — Broncos quarterback Bo Nix led yet another comeback victory Saturday, helping the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game with a 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. But a broken bone in his right ankle, suffered three plays before Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal, will sideline Denver’s second-year quarterback for the rest of the season.
Nix’s injury puts the Broncos in a state of flux as the franchise tries to win its fourth Super Bowl. What’s next for Denver and its young quarterback?
Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold answered questions about the injury from the team’s perspective, ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder gave his views on the Broncos’ prospects this postseason and injury analyst Stephania Bell offered insight into Nix’s next steps and potential long-term ramifications as he recovers.
Jump to a section:What happened? | Who’s next?Potential adjustments | Broncos reactionCan Denver still win it? | Nix’s outlook
What happened?
Broncos coach Sean Payton said Nix suffered the fracture on a first-and-10 play from the Bills’ 36-yard line with 6:04 left in overtime. Nix lost 2 yards on a designed run when he was pulled to the ground by Buffalo safety Cole Bishop. Nix had a slight limp after the play but quickly moved back to the huddle.
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He threw a long incompletion to wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. on the next play in which Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White was flagged for pass interference. Nix moved down the field to get lined up with the offense and took the next snap for a kneel-down. During the kneel-down play, his right ankle twisted awkwardly and appeared to give out. Nix had a pronounced limp as he moved to the sideline before Lutz’s game-winning kick. — Legwold
Who is next up for the Broncos?
Jarrett Stidham is the Broncos’ backup QB. He signed with Denver as a free agent in 2023, right after Payton was hired as head coach. Payton has often credited Stidham’s experience and demeanor as keys to helping Nix’s development in his first two NFL seasons. Stidham was a fourth-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2019 and spent three seasons there before he signed with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022, when he was Derek Carr’s backup.
Stidham, who cites time spent working with Tom Brady with the Patriots as pivotal to his development, started two games in 2023 after Payton benched Russell Wilson, throwing for two touchdowns with one interception. Stidham doesn’t have Nix’s mobility but is unafraid of pushing the ball downfield and has shown it in previous game action.
As for the passer behind Stidham, the Broncos’ effort to keep Sam Ehlinger has worked out. Ehlinger turned down an offer to sign with the Indianapolis Colts and join their active roster earlier this season to remain on the Broncos’ practice squad. — Legwold
What can Denver do to help Stidham?
After three seasons with the Broncos, Payton believes Stidham is comfortable enough with the playbook to keep a full array of options in the game plan. Because Nix was part of the Broncos’ run game, Payton might have to rethink how the quarterback fits into the rushing attack, though. Broncos running backs had only 10 carries while Nix had 12 in Saturday’s win over the Bills. Nix also led the team with 29 rushing yards.
Nix has also been one of the league’s toughest quarterbacks to sack since entering the NFL in 2024. Saturday was the 12th game this season in which he was sacked one or zero times. The Broncos might need some protection scheme tweaks with Stidham, who has been sacked 13 times in four career starts, including five times in one of his 2023 starts with the Broncos. — Legwold
1:49
Broncos outlast Bills in OT to reach AFC title game
The Broncos book a spot in the AFC Championship Game with a thrilling win over the Bills in overtime.
What is the immediate reaction from the Broncos?
Payton delivered the news after many Broncos had already left the locker room, so many players likely found out as they headed home. Payton will see some players Sunday, as they’ll come to the team’s facility to get medical treatment, and more Monday.
Those who heard the news at the stadium Saturday were immediately disappointed, especially for Nix. But the turnaround to prepare for the AFC Championship Game will force the Broncos to pivot quickly. Nix is scheduled to have surgery Tuesday in Birmingham, Alabama, and then will likely be around his teammates later in the week. — Legwold
Do the Broncos have any chance of beating the Patriots or Texans without Nix? Winning the Super Bowl?
I remember working on a roundtable like this eight years ago, writing off the Eagles’ chances of winning the Super Bowl with Nick Foles after Carson Wentz was injured late in the season. That was a mistake, in part because that 2017 Eagles team had an elite roster that could support a backup quarterback. That’s pretty much what the Broncos have, too. They have arguably the best offensive line in the league and a strong defense that can shut down the run and the pass.
I’m very skeptical of Denver’s chances and would be stunned if confetti falls on the Broncos next weekend, much less in Super Bowl LX. But they’re only two wins from a championship in a wide-open season. Because of the depth and talent on their roster, I won’t completely rule them out. — Walder
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What is the longer-term impact? How long could Nix be out?
In the absence of full detail regarding Nix’s ankle fracture, it is hard to provide specifics about his precise treatment and recovery. However, Payton saying postgame that Nix will undergo surgery indicates the fracture is unstable and requires implantation of hardware to stabilize it and ensure the bones are in proper alignment. The fact that they could report this immediately after the game indicates the fracture was clearly visible on X-ray without requiring additional imaging.
Healing from an ankle fracture repair is approximately 10 to 12 weeks, but restoring full joint range of motion, strength and dynamic function takes approximately three to four months. Given the timeline before training camp resumes, Nix will likely be on track to start the 2026 regular season, assuming no complications. — Bell
