MELBOURNE, Australia — Carlos Alcaraz. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. For the first time since 2013, the top four men’s seeds have reached the semifinals of the Australian Open.
History is guaranteed to be made this weekend at Melbourne Park. Alcaraz is looking to become the youngest man to complete the career Slam. Sinner is seeking a rare three-peat Down Under. Zverev is hunting for his first major title. And Djokovic is still gunning for that record-extending 25th Grand Slam crown.
Here’s why each semifinalist can go on and lift the trophy:
Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1 seed)
Alcaraz has been on a tennis rampage over the past 18 months, winning Grand Slams and retaking hold of the coveted No. 1 rank. His dominant form has been on full display over the past 11 days at Melbourne Park.
The Spaniard has barely had to move out of second gear as he has motored into the semifinals at the Australian Open for (remarkably) the first time in his still very young career. He is 15 of 15 on sets played and, in truth, hasn’t really looked like he might lose one. In the few pressure situations he has faced, Alcaraz has been unflappable, winning a tournament-high 76% of points when serving at either 30-30 or 40-40.
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But perhaps the most ominous sign for his rivals is that Alcaraz appears to have addressed what was really the only weakness in his game: the serve. Alcaraz has taken a page out of the Djokovic playbook, modeling his serve on the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s and targeting precision over power.
“He doesn’t hit the fastest serve, but [it] is super accurate. Like, you cannot read it. It’s really, really difficult to read it,” said Alcaraz earlier in the tournament when asked about what made the Djokovic serve so dangerous. “It is really close to the lines, and his ball is, like, a sleeper when it touches the ground. Sometimes you’ve got to go for precision more than speed.”
At this year’s Australian Open, Alcaraz is landing 66% of first serves, two percentage points higher than he managed at the tournament 12 months ago. He’s also upped his second serve win rate from 56% last year to 60% this year. They might not sound like seismic strides, but when you’re already close to unbeatable, it makes the task that much more difficult for Sinner, Zverev and Djokovic.
Winning the Australian Open title Sunday evening would make Alcaraz the youngest man in history to complete the coveted career Slam — a title at all four majors. Don’t underestimate just how hungry he is to rewrite the record books.
Jannik Sinner (No. 2 seed)
At this point, it feels almost inevitable Sinner will, at the very least, be playing in Sunday’s final. Not because he’s facing 38-year-old Djokovic in the semis, but because he’s made a habit of playing in Grand Slam showpiece matches of late.
Sinner has been in the past five Grand Slam finals, winning three of them. He’s played in the past four hard-court major finals, winning three, including the past two Australian Opens. He’s won 32 of his past 33 matches at Slams with a hard court and hasn’t tasted defeat at Melbourne Park since 2023, when he fell in a five-set epic to eventual finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas.
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Aside from a brief third-round scare against unseeded American Eliot Spizzirri, Sinner has been untroubled on his way back to the last four. His quarterfinal dismantling of eighth-seeded Ben Shelton was something to behold, sending an ominous sign to the three others remaining in the draw that it will take an extraordinary performance to dethrone him.
Sinner is serving efficiently, striking the ball cleanly, keeping the errors to a minimum and forcing his opponents to play out of their comfort zone.
“Every day and every match day, we never take the opponent for granted,” said Sinner, following his quarterfinal win over Shelton. “I’m someone who goes very much in the present moment. I’m happy to be here, happy to play one more time the semis here in Australia. It’s a very special place for me.”
Sinner will start as a resounding favorite against Djokovic in the semifinals, an opponent he has beaten the past five times they’ve played. He also hasn’t dropped a set against him in the past three meetings. Then it would be a date with either Alcaraz or Zverev, two men he beat en route to claiming the ATP Finals in November.
Alexander Zverev (No. 3 seed)
He’s been banging on the door of a first Grand Slam title for what seems like forever, but is this the year — and the tournament — where Zverev finally breaks through?
The world No. 3 is more than familiar competing late in the second week of a major and certainly won’t be feeling as if he’s out of his depth when he steps out to Rod Laver Arena on Friday for what will be the 10th Grand Slam semifinal appearance of his career. On three occasions, he has gone on to play in the final, including last year at Melbourne Park.
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Zverev has continued a golden run of form this fortnight, building with each match and looking every bit like a player who could soon be crowned champion. He is playing disciplined tennis and refusing to make unforced errors, a hallmark of his quarterfinal triumph against rising American Learner Tien.
As always, so much of Zverev’s potential success hinges on his booming serve. Through his five matches at the tournament, Zverev has struck 80 aces, only committed six double faults, won 92% of his service games and won 77% of points when his first serve landed in play.
“I feel healthy, and pain-free, which I haven’t felt in a long time,” said Zverev following his quarterfinal win over Tien. “I feel like I’m playing well. Of course, I’m still chasing that desired Slam. I still want to achieve that, but I also want to enjoy my tennis.”
For Zverev, there’s good news and bad news ahead of his semifinal. The bad is he has to play top-ranked Alcaraz. The good is that he holds one of the better records against him of anyone on tour. The pair are 6-6 from their previous 12 meetings and 1-1 over the past 18 months. That has to give him confidence he can pull off the upset and reach a second consecutive Australian Open final.
Novak Djokovic (No. 4 seed)
Nobody in tennis history knows how to win Grand Slam titles better than Djokovic. And nobody in tennis history has been more successful at the Australian Open.
The 10-time champion of the event has been beaten at Melbourne Park just six times in the past 16 years and holds a staggering 20-2 record in the semifinals and finals at the tournament. And while he hasn’t lifted a Grand Slam trophy since 2023, even at age 38 he remains a bona fide contender every time he enters a draw. When he’s only two matches away from the title, no one should write him off.
But Djokovic has also been aided by some fortune this fortnight. He avoided facing a top-70 ranked opponent in the first three rounds, then benefitted from a fourth-round walkover when Czech Jakub Mensik withdrew from their match, citing an abdominal injury. On Wednesday, Djokovic appeared to be heading for the exit and was trailing Italian Lorenzo Musetti by two sets to love. But the fifth-seed retired injured, sending Djokovic to the last four at the Australian Open for the 13th time in his career.
That might just be the stroke of luck he needs if he’s to win a 25th major title, breaking the tie he currently holds with Margaret Court for most singles Grand Slam titles.
“I know that when I’m healthy, when I’m able to put all the pieces of the puzzle together on a given day, I feel like I can beat anybody,” Djokovic said before the tournament began. “My priority is really taking care of my body, building momentum and not spending unnecessary energy. [Last year] I was missing a little bit of juice in my legs, to be able to compete with these guys at the latter stages of a Grand Slam.”
Djokovic will be the freshest of all four semifinalists, having spent just nine hours and seven minutes on court. Alcaraz, Sinner and Zverev have each spent at least 11 hours on court to reach this stage of the tournament.
There’s also, somewhat weirdly, very little pressure on him. Sinner is an overwhelming favorite to win their semifinal and is expected to get the job done with relative ease. But there’s no such thing as an easy win over Djokovic in Australia. Beware the underestimated man.
