Groundhog Day is coming. That’s when Punxsutawney Phil will look for his shadow and tell us if there’s going to be six more weeks of Miami (Ohio) staying unbeaten.
January? That’s moving month, when there starts to be a better feel for the truths of this college basketball season, no matter how implausible they seem. Before we say goodbye to the month, notice the latest news from Oxford, Ohio and Tucson, from West Lafayette and Lexington and Lincoln. This week has been a set up for more intrigue in February.
📈: Latest DI men’s basketball NET rankings
Yes, it’s currently true that Miami could actually run the regular season table. The RedHawks are now 21-0 — the best start in the history of the Mid-American Conference — and living the dream, surviving their past three games in overtime, overtime and by two points. They allowed 102, 101 and 84 points — and won all three. The program that averaged 2,656 fans a game last season packed in 9,223 Tuesday night for the 86-84 victory over Massachusetts. “I always go out and watch warmups,” coach Travis Steele said afterward. “And I was shocked when I went out there, I couldn’t sit in my normal spot.”
Two of Miami’s recent close calls were at home with Buffalo and Massachusetts, and the RedHawks still have trips to both, so missteps are possible. But not until someone can crack Miami’s late-game magic. The RedHawks are 5-0 in overtime or one-possession games.
Yes, it’s true that one of the themes of this season is how few leads are safe. Eighteen teams have lost after being ahead by at least 20 points and 97 after being up by at least 15. Six ranked teams overcame double-digit deficits to win Tuesday night alone — Michigan, Michigan State, Arkansas, Virginia, Saint Louis and Miami. Together they were behind for nearly 196 of the 255 minutes they played.
Yes, it’s true that Arizona — who started the season picked fourth in the Big 12 — is still rolling along No. 1 at 21-0 with the same starting lineup for all 21 wins, three of them freshmen. Presumably, nearly blowing an entire 10-point lead in the last minute and committing three turnovers in the final 39 seconds the other night at BYU was an anomaly. The next stretch will be demanding with six games out of seven against ranked opponents, including stops at Kansas and Houston.
Yes, it’s true that Purdue has gone from No. 1 in the nation to fifth place in the Big Ten after losing three games in a row. Defense has been an issue. During the skid, opponents have shot 42.9 percent from the 3-point line and averaged 13 makes from there a game. The Boilermakers have allowed six straight opponents to shoot at least 45.9 percent from the field. This is how Purdue could have seven more field goals in three games with UCLA, Illinois and Indiana and lose all three.
Yes, it’s true that Nebraska looks perfectly capable of winning the national championship. The Cornhuskers took their first defeat Tuesday night, at Michigan 75-72, but they were on the home court of a top-5 opponent, playing without two of their top three scorers and it required a 19-3 Wolverines advantage in free throws to beat them. They’re still 20-1. Nebraska is a Big Ten school known for a different sport and trying to overturn an inglorious past — its last regular season conference title was 1950 — by winning a national championship absolutely nobody expects.
RECAP: No. 3 Michigan mounts comeback to spoil No. 5 Nebraska’s undefeated season
Sound familiar, Indiana football?
Yes, it’s true UConn could sweep the national championships in both men and women. The women are No. 1 by unanimous acclaim, and the men have climbed to No. 2 and won 16 games in a row. Together they’re 41-1. UConn is the only school to ever accomplish the feat — and the joint Huskies have done it twice, in 2004 and ’14.
Yes, it’s true Kentucky keeps disturbing the jittery faithful by getting steamrolled. The Wildcats are 14-7 after the 80-55 mashing at Vanderbilt, and it’s just not the seven defeats but how often Kentucky has been escorted to the proverbial woodshed. The losses include, in order, trailing Louisville by 20 points, Michigan State by 24, Gonzaga by 37, Alabama by 21 and Vanderbilt by 28. The Wildcats were also down by 18 to LSU and 17 to Tennessee but escaped both. They just won five in a row. February might have to figure out this bunch.
Yes, it’s true Duke could blow through the ACC without a scratch. The Blue Devils have now won 30 of their past 31 games against league opponents, and the gap only seems to be growing larger. They’ve won the past four ACC games by 15, 30, 21 and 31. But the two North Carolina games are still to come.
Yes, it’s true BYU could get to its first Final Four. The 17-3 record has been bruised by a three-point loss to Arizona, a two-pointer to UConn and a thumping at Texas Tech. Nothing embarrassing about any of that. The Cougars at the moment can claim the nation’s top scorer, freshman AJ Dybantsa and his 23.6 average. BYU has played in 32 NCAA tournaments. No school has been to more without a Final Four.
Yes, it’s true Gonzaga is 21-1 with 14 victories in a row, and has had to keep the surge going without its two injured leading scorers. Overcoming adversity. And maybe building depth for March.
Yes, it’s true the Big Ten’s time may have come at last to end the 25-year championship dry spell. The league has four teams ranked in the top nine this week in the Associated Press poll and five of the top 10 in KenPom. If not now, when?
POWER 37: Purdue falls, unbeaten Arizona stays atop Andy Katz’s latest Power 37
Yes, it’s true in this year of the freshman that the Final Four could be an absolute cavalcade for teenagers. Eight of the top 17 teams in this week’s AP poll have freshmen as their leading scorer. Top-ranked Arizona has two.
Yes, it’s true that Navy has won 11 of its last 12 games and sits atop the Patriot League. The Midshipmen haven’t played in the NCAA tournament since 1998. It’d be a fitting season to return, what with this the 40th anniversary of David Robinson leading Navy to the Elite Eight.
Yes, it’s true that UT Martin, Merrimack, Maryland Eastern Shores and Queens all lead or share the lead in their leagues at the moment and none has ever played in the NCAA tournament. Nor has SWAC leader Bethune-Cookman, though the Wildcats’ coach certainly has. Before he was an NBA All-Star, Reggie Theus was a key player in UNLV’s first Final Four team.
It’s also true that South Florida is but a half-game back in the American and the Bulls have played in one NCAA tournament in 33 years, and that was 2012. Purdue Fort Wayne is a game back in the Horizon, and the Mastodons are one of only two programs in the state of Indiana to never make the tournament. Dartmouth is a game behind in the Ivy League and the Big Green’s last NCAA tournament trip was 1959.
Alas, it’s also true that some hardy names are hurting, and currently their chances of playing in the NCAA tournament look like a Coco Gauff tennis racquet. Baylor is near the bottom of the Big 12 at 1-6, has lost six of seven and just coughed up 92 points to Texas Tech and 97 to TCU. The Bears are 268th in the nation in scoring defense. Baylor has appeared in 10 of the past 11 NCAA tournaments and is only five years removed from winning the national championship. Confusing times in Waco.
Oregon has dropped six in a row and is 1-8 in the Big Ten. The Ducks have not broken 60 points in three of their past four games and are 302nd in the nation in field goal shooting. Memphis was picked to win the American Conference in the preseason but currently sits in seventh place with a 9-10 overall record and has one player averaging in double figures.
All true as February comes in. Might not be that way when it goes out.
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