Updating the Milwaukee Brewers’ payroll projection for 2026

(UPDATE: An incorrect salary was fixed, and a better summary is included at the bottom of the post.)

At the start of the offseason, we looked at the initial payroll projection for 2026. While not much has changed to the roster since then, there have been some adjustments. As the end of January approaches, and pitchers and catchers are set to report in just 13 days, the starting payroll is getting closer to a set amount. Let’s take a look at what has changed since then. (If you want to review the original projection from the end of October, you can find that post here.)

Here are some reminders for the projection.

First, here are the projections for the initial roster.

Here’s a summary of what has changed since the original payroll:

The total above is just the initial total based on the projected active roster. However, there’s still more money to factor in to the payroll. If you compare it to the active roster at the end of the season, the Brewers only had just over $84 million of their $156 million total on the active roster. Here’s where the rest of the payroll came from. (Some rounding is used in the table, so actual amounts will be slightly different.)

Some of those numbers will be in the 2026 payroll as well. Specifically, the last four numbers will be very similar to 2025. The first three will be different in 2026. For the moment, there will not be any options to consider after the 2026 season, so that number can be ignored.

As for the other two numbers, it’s difficult to include a solid projection. Those numbers can easily be inflated by circumstances during the season. For example, if we looked at the injured list at the end of 2024, that was highly inflated due to Yelich finishing the season on it. If we go back to 2022, the traded/release player number was significantly higher because Lorenzo Cain’s final year salary was included. That would also result in the active payroll having a lower figure due to the changes in players, but those numbers end up in the IL or traded/released categories instead.

There’s one other factor that Spotrac considers in their payroll estimate. Even though the initial projection factors in 26 players, Spotrac adds in the payroll for 12 additional pre-arbitration players. Considering the Brewers were paying for seven IL players and eight players not on the team anymore (not counting two who were paid under $10,000), adding in 12 more players is a reasonable estimate. Those 12 players would make $9.36 million total. (Spotrac uses a slightly higher $820,000 estimate for pre-arbitration players, but the CBA minimum is at $780,000.)

What we can expect for 2026 is similar to the 2025 payroll. In terms of cash payroll, the total will at most be around that $156 million mark. The Brewers have been in the $140-$156 million range in recent years and that likely will not change. With that in mind, here’s a comprehensive look at the estimated payroll for 2026.

That leaves $21.4 million in potential additional payroll space. That extra space would be needed for the team to make in-season moves. It gives them the ability to take on money in contracts for players acquired by trade. It would also factor in contracts for players who make the team that are on minor league contracts (such as the recently signed Reese McGuire). It also gives them the opportunity to bring in a low-cost contract in spring training if the team has a sudden need.

With the overall quiet offseason for the Brewers, the payroll appears to be heading to a similar point in 2026. Any space remaining will be needed for in-season flexibility. There is potential for a smaller signing, since the team gained $7 million in space after trading Peralta. However, the team may be content to just save that money for now. If that’s the case, what we’re looking at will be close to the current spending plan for next season.

EDIT: I made an adjustment to the above table. My original tables used an incorrect amount for Yelich’s salary, which included deferred money for the future. That has been corrected.

Also, it was pointed out that including some of the additional sources (player benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, minor league) was unnecessary. To help with that, here’s a more condensed version, taking out some of those extra sources.

The declined options is one that could be factored into 2025 or 2026, depending on how you view them. Unfortunately, without direct insight into the organization’s finances, we can’t tell the exact way to factor them in. If it’s viewed as part of 2025 payroll, then there’s still space for 2026. If they’re viewed as part of 2026, then the Brewers are already at or over their 2025 budget (though we would also have $8.75 million in declined options from after 2024 to add in).