The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to turn our attention to the biggest burning question: Will your team be in or out? It has roughly six weeks until Selection Sunday to answer that query. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
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We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut (which some inevitably still will). 24 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline, if not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 15 current teams
Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 19 current teams
Long shots: Teams that would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance these ones will make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.
Jump to a conference:Big Ten | SEC | ACCBig 12 | Big EastMid-majors
BIG TEN
10.1 expected bids (9.1 at-large)
Locks (5)
Michigan WolverinesIllinois Fighting IlliniNebraska CornhuskersPurdue BoilermakersMichigan State Spartans
Should be in (3)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 2
Iowa’s résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the high 40s in KPI to the low 20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That’s still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January and with Sunday’s 18-point victory at Oregon. They’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in at 22nd in our average of performance ratings, which raises their potential going forward. But their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 70th to 17th nationally from here on out, according to the BPI.
Next game: at Washington (Wednesday)
Wisconsin Badgers
Updated: Feb. 1
The Badgers boosted their case with a 10-point home win over fellow bubble-dweller Ohio State on Saturday; it was their seventh victory in eight games. They still sit around 40th in the national consensus résumé ranking, which is prime bubble territory. But they also sit eighth among the 10 Big Ten teams tracking for bids. The schedule does not let up anytime soon, either, with four straight Quadrant 1A contests coming up next that could provide signature wins (they’ve beaten only one Quadrant 1 opponent thus far) or knock their odds into shakier territory.
Next game: at Indiana (Saturday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 4, 7:48 a.m.
Indiana is here as the darling of the forecast models, which average out to an 83% conditional at-large probability despite a relatively similar top-line résumé ranking (No. 37) to other Big Ten bubble candidates below. What the Hoosiers have going for them are more signature wins — two versus Quadrant 1 — and plenty of talent, as they are in the top 34 in every power rating we’re tracking. The latter factor leads them to still be projected for more wins by season’s end (20.2) than any of the conference’s other non-locks aside from Iowa. But Tuesday’s loss at USC, when the Hoosiers could never quite close a second-half gap, certainly cost them some tourney odds.
Next game: vs. Wisconsin (Saturday)
Work to do (4)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 3, 10:36 p.m.
The Bruins recently saw their 14-game home win streak snapped in double OT against Indiana, but they got back to winning business Tuesday with a blowout over Rutgers. In the big picture, their résumé still ranks in the mid-40s nationally and 10th in the Big Ten, though that might be underselling their chances. The forecast model composite thinks they’re more likely to get a bid than not (74%), on the basis of two Quadrant 1 wins and a more manageable rest-of-season schedule (No. 35 nationally in the BPI) than their bubble rivals, which ought to get them to 20 wins. That said, many high-leverage games remain.
Next game: vs. Washington (Saturday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 4, 7:48 a.m.
If the season ended today, USC would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably, particularly after holding off fellow Bubble Watch team Indiana on Tuesday night. The Trojans are a top-40 team in the résumé rankings and sit ninth in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. The models are a bit less bullish (64% at-large), however: They show the Trojans as a borderline top-50 team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 28th-most-difficult remaining schedule. But Eric Musselman’s team has now won three of four after a midseason skid, including résumé-boosters over Wisconsin and Indiana.
Next game: at Penn State (Sunday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 1
The Buckeyes are right on the bubble at No. 45 in the national résumé rankings, but a 10-point loss at Wisconsin did them no favors; they now rank 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They have a single Quadrant 1 win (at Northwestern in early December) and are projected by the BPI to fall just short of 19 wins on the season — meaning they’re projected to be sub-.500 from here on, which explains why they’re not as sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season.
Next game: at Maryland (Thursday)
Washington Huskies
Updated: Feb. 1
The Huskies might be downgraded to the “long shots” category soon, but we’ll slot them here for now on the basis of a 23% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-7 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (66th nationally). But they also have a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season with a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Saturday. There’s a ton of work left to do, but Washington could run up wins against the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule.
Next game: vs. Iowa (Wednesday)
Long shots
None
SEC
9.5 expected bids (8.5 at-large)
Locks (5)
Florida GatorsVanderbilt CommodoresTennessee VolunteersAlabama Crimson TideArkansas Razorbacks
Should be in (4)
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 1
Just as a 25-point loss at Vanderbilt seemed to dampen Kentucky’s recent hot streak, Saturday’s victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville elevated coach Mark Pope’s team back into “should be in” status. The Wildcats’ résumé (three Quadrant 1A wins) is on par with the rest of the SEC’s candidates in this category, and they have a 94% at-large chance in the model consensus. But only two teams in the country are projected for a tougher schedule over the rest of the season, which could make for an interesting ride.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 1
Auburn has a number of good wins against a tough schedule and would be in solid shape if the season ended today, but its fate is complicated by one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules (11th hardest, per the BPI). Despite losing to Tennessee on Saturday, there’s still plenty of cushion to work with — the model consensus actually gives the Tigers 95% at-large odds — but the BPI is projecting the Tigers to fall short of 20 wins. Minimizing losses in a brutal stretch over the next three weeks — with games against Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — will be crucial to Auburn maintaining its position.
Next game: vs. Alabama (Saturday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 1
Most of the models in the forecast consensus consider the Aggies to be in outstanding shape (95% or higher) for an at-large bid, particularly after beating Georgia by 15 in Athens on Saturday. They are projected by the BPI to eclipse 22 wins, which ought to be enough to make the tournament when the smoke clears. They’re still tied for eighth out of what could be nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC in the résumé ranking average, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
Next game: at Alabama (Wednesday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 1
The Bulldogs seemed to have risen above the bubble fray for a time, but recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds. At No. 35 in the résumé rankings overall (tied for eighth in the SEC) and with a trio of wins against the BPI top 50, they might not need to worry too much. But the Dawgs’ schedule-strength leap (from No. 70 to this point to No. 13 from here on) is among the biggest of any high-major team, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.
Next game: at LSU (Saturday)
Work to do (2)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 3, 9:11 p.m.
Despite ranking in the mid-30s nationally in the predictive metrics, Sean Miller’s team is staring at a tough numbers game already after a handful of early defeats in SEC play. Tuesday’s hard-earned win over South Carolina, however, was a crucial step in the right direction. The Longhorns are 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (52nd nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 63rd hardest looking back to 31st hardest going forward. Three Quadrant 1 wins (including two for Quadrant 1A) are helpful, but they’ll have to compile even more while hoping the NCAA accommodates 10 SEC teams for the Dance.
Next game: vs. Mississippi (Saturday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 1
The Tigers recently went cold, losing four of six to drop to 11th in the league in the résumé average, though they did beat Mississippi State on Saturday. They are projected to finish with 18.5 wins, though they do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if their résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins might be easier said than done.
Next game: at South Carolina (Saturday)
Long shots
LSU Tigers
ACC
7.9 expected bids (6.9 at-large)
Locks (5)
Duke Blue DevilsVirginia CavaliersLouisville CardinalsNorth Carolina Tar HeelsClemson Tigers
Should be in (2)
NC State Wolfpack
Updated: Feb. 3, 8:04 a.m.
After Tuesday’s comeback win on the road in Dallas, the Wolfpack have won seven of eight — including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins at Clemson and, now, SMU. They are a top-25 team nationally in the predictive ratings, which bodes well for their momentum. Their borderline top-30 résumé average doesn’t give us the confidence to make them a “lock” quite yet, though they rank seventh in the ACC in that metric, and the models give them an at-large probability in the high-90s because they expect the Wolfpack to keep winning the way they have been.
Next game: vs. Virginia Tech (Saturday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 3, 11:19 p.m.
The Mustangs seemed to be in control early against NC State on Tuesday before letting the game gradually slip away, resulting in an undeniably tough home loss. But in the grand scheme, it didn’t hurt their tournament chances that much: SMU still ranks sixth in the conference (low-30s nationally) on résumé, which is a solid foundation. And while the Mustangs are seventh in the ACC (37th nationally) in the predictive rankings, they have the nation’s 72nd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that still resides above the bubble.
Next game: at Pittsburgh (Saturday)
Work to do (3)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 1
The Hurricanes had bounced back from back-to-back defeats against Clemson (excusable) and FSU (less so) with wins over Syracuse and Stanford to stabilize their at-large odds in most of the models. But Saturday’s one-point home loss to Cal put another dent in those numbers. The Hurricanes are 38th in the résumé rankings, and they face the 70th-hardest remaining schedule. But they are directly on the bubble at No. 8 in the ACC in résumé ranking, so their at-large chances remain around a coin flip.
Next game: at Boston College (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 1
The Golden Bears were not exactly tracking for a strong tournament bid when they lost four of five to open ACC play, but wins over North Carolina and Miami have vaulted them into consideration. At No. 50 on the résumé list with a 31% consensus at-large probability, they would likely be on the outside looking in if it were already Selection Sunday. However, they do have three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A victory) to their name. The Bears have the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule, which could see them end up with a surprisingly intriguing case by season’s end.
Next game: vs. Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 1
The Hokies’ conditional at-large odds are fairly consistent, but that could be a negative, as every system has them pegged between 18% and 33%, meaning they are tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. While their record is similar to that of Miami — which has a much easier schedule (100th nationally versus 51st) — the difference is in future projection: Virginia Tech ranks borderline top-60 in the predictive metrics, and the BPI projects the Hokies will go 3-5 over their remaining regular-season schedule.
Next game: at NC State (Saturday)
Long shots
Stanford Cardinal
BIG 12
7.3 expected bids (6.3 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona WildcatsHouston CougarsIowa State CyclonesKansas JayhawksBYU CougarsTexas Tech Red Raiders
Should be in (1)
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 1
With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights are in the driver’s seat for that slot, especially after grabbing a signature win over visiting Texas Tech on Saturday. They rank 25th in the résumé average, while no other non-lock Big 12 team is even in the top 55. Pulling off a road upset at either Houston or Cincinnati in the next week-plus would go a long way in further solidifying UCF’s standing.
Next game: at Houston (Wednesday)
Work to do (2)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Updated: Feb. 1
Despite low tournament chances for much of early conference play, the Cowboys sneak in here on the basis of their No. 53 placement in the résumé ranking, which does rank eighth in the conference (slightly ahead of TCU). The models are low on Oklahoma State because its predictive ranking (No. 63) is so much worse than TCU’s, and the Cowboys face the Big 12’s second-toughest remaining schedule. But Steve Lutz’s team could make noise with some upsets.
Next game: vs. BYU (Wednesday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 2
After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs are facing a deficit in both the record and résumé departments relative to UCF and Oklahoma State — and the rest of the tournament bubble, for that matter. Their case isn’t without merits, which include three Quadrant 1 wins (including a Quadrant 1A victory over Florida), and they face the Big 12’s easiest remaining schedule (59th hardest nationally). But in Sunday’s visit to Colorado, the Frogs came out flat and let the game spiral into an ugly 87-61 loss, putting a major dent in their at-large chances and risking a drop to “long shots” territory.
Next game: vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Long shots
Baylor BearsWest Virginia Mountaineers
BIG EAST
3.4 expected bids (2.4 at-large)
Locks (2)
UConn HuskiesSt. John’s Red Storm
Should be in (1)
Villanova Wildcats
Updated: Jan. 31
The Wildcats are right on the border of being a lock, with a 96% at-large chance in the model consensus, but there are enough meaningful differences between them and UConn and St. John’s to give at least some pause. While the other two are both within the top 20 in predictive ranking, Villanova is outside the top 30, which eats into its future projection some. The Wildcats are only 2-4 against the BPI top 50, as well. That being said, they play the Big East’s third-easiest remaining schedule and should clear 22 wins by regular season’s end, a projection that improved with Saturday’s 87-73 home win over Providence. It would take a lot for the Wildcats to not hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
Next game: vs. Seton Hall (Wednesday)
Work to do (1)
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 1
Shaheen Holloway’s team pulled out of its recent four-game losing streak with much-needed wins at home over Xavier and Marquette, but the Pirates need a lot more where that came from. At No. 49 nationally in résumé average and with only a single Quadrant 1 win against NC State back in late November, they would likely be on the outs if the selections were made today. (Case in point: Only 22 of the 101 entries at BracketMatrix had Seton Hall making the tournament.) The Pirates should pick up some wins facing the 54th-ranked remaining schedule, but those will need to include signature ones.
Next game: at Villanova (Wednesday)
Long shots
Creighton BluejaysButler Bulldogs
OTHERS
Locks (1)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Should be in (4)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 3, 11:14 p.m.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila. They are 22-1 after storming back from down 13 in the first half to beat Davidson on Tuesday, and they’re still tracking for the best SRS in program history. They rank 20th nationally in the résumé rankings and 24th in the predictive ratings, with a greater than 90% consensus chance that is arguably underselling their résumé. (Don’t be surprised if they are upgraded to “lock” status soon.) It’s very hard to see them not making the field as an at-large team if necessary.
Next game: vs. La Salle (Saturday)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Updated: Feb. 1
Per the BPI, the Aggies are big favorites to get in as the Mountain West’s AQ with a 43% chance; no other team is above 17%. But if that doesn’t happen, Utah State should still be in good shape as the second team called from the conference. They rank 31st in the résumé rankings and have a Quadrant 1 win over Boise State, plus they came back from a double-digit deficit at home to beat bubble rival San Diego State on Saturday. The Aggies also are the third-best mid-major in the predictive ratings, trailing only Gonzaga and Saint Louis. Even during a season in which the Mountain West could secure only three bids, Utah State should be one.
Next game: at New Mexico (Wednesday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 1
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry only a consensus 70% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. They also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for Saturday’s loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.
Next game: vs. San Diego (Wednesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 1
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely team. They have a better résumé ranking than San Diego State (38th versus 46th) and a slightly better predictive rating (44th versus 46th), and they face a fairly equivalent schedule from here on out. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which the Lobos won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Next game: vs. Utah State (Wednesday)
Work to do (7)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 3, 8:18 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? Along with Arizona, Miami is one of only two remaining unbeatens in Division I and ranks around 40th on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline top-90 team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 353rd-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got another one Tuesday against a stubborn Buffalo squad that played the RedHawks tight in both meetings this season.
Next game: at Marshall (Saturday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 1
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons — and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos’ chances are roughly a coin flip at this point — at No. 48 in the résumé rankings with 61% consensus at-large odds — but they will get another crack at Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga later this month.
Next game: at Pacific (Wednesday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 1
Even if the bulk of the comparison points between San Diego State and New Mexico favor the Lobos, it is a close comparison nonetheless. The Aztecs are one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, but their consensus at-large chance fell from 63% to 49% after Saturday’s loss at Utah State. That being said, the Mountain West could send at least three teams to the tournament; the conference hasn’t missed that threshold in five seasons. With a fairly large gap in résumé quality over the next-best league team (Nevada, at 58th), the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.
Next game: vs. Wyoming (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 3, 9:11 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (15% consensus at-large) aren’t exactly bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Feb. 20). However, the Rams are on the edge of bubble territory in overall résumé — they rank 55th nationally — and their remaining schedule is set up for plenty more wins, so they can certainly add to their case, which was the case as they held off a big Fordham rally Tuesday night.
Next game: vs. Dayton (Friday)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 1
The Patriots perennially flirt with a tournament entry but haven’t been back to the Dance since reaching the round of 32 in 2011. They’re 20-2 and rank 47th on the résumé list, which is prime mid-major bubble territory, but their consensus at-large probability is just 14%. If Saint Louis is effectively a lock, other A-10 teams such as George Mason and VCU must make their cases for the league to get a second bid (which has happened three times in the five years since the pandemic) if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Next game: vs. Duquesne (Wednesday)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Updated: Feb. 3
The Golden Hurricane have been a darling of the bracket watchers this season, bouncing back from a few early losses in conference play to win six in a row. They remain in a borderline “long shot” zone nonetheless, as the consensus forecast assigns them just a 10% chance to grab an at-large bid. But they rank 54th in the résumé ranking — within striking distance of the bubble cutoff — and they’ll get a few chances to add to that a bit soon with games against FAU, USF and Wichita State coming up.
Next game: at Florida Atlantic (Wednesday)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Updated: Feb. 4, 8:10 a.m.
After losing Tuesday night to Boise State in overtime, Coach Steve Alford’s team is set at 8% in the model consensus, below Tulsa. The Wolf Pack likely need to hope the Mountain West gets four tourney bids when the projection models and bracketologists aren’t necessarily 100% sure they’ll get three. That said, they sit 57th in the résumé rankings with five combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins and will get four more cracks at those types of opponents before regular season’s end. Still, the BSU loss hurts.
Next Game: vs. Fresno St. (Saturday)
Long shots
Belmont Bruins (Missouri Valley)Boise State Broncos (MW)Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)South Florida Bulls (American)Liberty Flames (Conference USA)McNeese Cowboys (Southland)Yale Bulldogs (Ivy League)Akron Zips (MAC)Dayton Flyers (A-10)
Glossary of terms
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
