How Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament seed will eventually be impacted by Portland loss

Portland pulled off the biggest win in school history on Wednesday night, handing No. 6 Gonzaga a stunning 87-80 defeat to snap a 20-game losing streak in the series. Fans stormed the court inside the Chiles Center after the final buzzer sounded to celebrate the program’s first victory over the Zags since Jan. 9, 2014.

It was Portland’s first win over a ranked opponent since that day more than 12 years ago. It also marked the Pilots’ first-ever victory over team ranked in the top seven of the AP poll. The Zags (22-2, 10-1 WCC) entered on a 15-game winning streak and closed as 22.5-point favorites. 

Losing to Portland marks Gonzaga’s first loss to a team ranked below 200th at KenPom since it lost in overtime at San Francisco on Jan. 30, 2010. Portland entered at 213th. It is Gonzaga’s first Quad 3 loss since 2023. 

It marked Gonzaga’s first loss since a 101-61 shellacking at the hands of Michigan on Nov. 26. That loss came against a projected No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This one came against a team that entered with 10-14 record and No. 230 ranking in the NET, and it could be the sort of defeat that eliminates the Bulldogs from the No. 1 seed conversation come Selection Sunday.

The win was particularly sweet for Portland because it marked the Pilots’ last visit from Gonzaga as a WCC foe before the Zags leave for the rebuilding Pac-12 next season. Gonzaga is now 47-3 against the Pilots under coach Mark Few.

Gonzaga had no answer for Joel Foxwell. The freshman guard from Australia led Portland with 27 points. He was aided significantly down the stretch by James O’Donnell, a sophomore forward from Australia who scored all of his 16 points in the second half.

Bracketology impact on Gonzaga

Gonzaga entered as a No. 3 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology and narrowly managed to retain that status — for now. The Bulldogs are now the final No. 3 seed. One reason Gonzaga didn’t fall to a No. 4 seed is that Michigan State, which was in position to rise from a No. 4 seed, suffered a Quad 2 loss at Minnesota. That likely prevented the Spartans from jumping Gonzaga.

Another factor deep in the weeds of Bracketology data also kept Gonzaga from falling. The Bulldogs actually gained a Quad 1 victory when Thursday’s metrics updated to reflect Wednesday’s results. That’s because Arizona State rose from 80th in the NET to 73rd following its 71-63 win at Utah. As a result, Gonzaga’s Nov. 14 road win over the Sun Devils changed from a Quad 2 victory to a Quad 1 victory to give the Zags a 5-1 mark in Quad 1 instead of a 4-1 mark.

But the loss is obviously harmful in the long run for Gonzaga. No one else in the running for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed has a Quad 3 loss. Now, the Bulldogs do. It will be a drag on their resume come Selection Sunday.