Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
February has arrived, which means March is around the corner. And that means Bubble Watch is back in action to help you stay up to date on who is headed toward an NCAA Tournament berth — and who better shift into overdrive during the season’s final five weeks.
With more than a month left until Selection Sunday, a lot can change. Just ask Kentucky or Indiana, two teams that have drastically improved their fortunes over the last few weeks. With so much basketball still to play, we will aim to be conservative with our category classifications for each team. Think of it as the Bubble Watch’s “no easy buckets” policy: You are on the bubble until you prove, emphatically, that you no longer belong there.
We are also starting by casting a wide net across the at-large picture. Several teams discussed below would have close to a 0.0 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today. Fortunately for them, the season does not, in fact, end today. That allows more teams to remain in consideration.
A couple overarching themes to know: The Big East is struggling and may end up a three-bid league, which would match its lackluster 2024 tournament participation rate (though UConn went on to win it all). The ACC, on the other hand, is having a major resurgence after a few down seasons. The bubble is stuffed with ACC teams. And while the SEC is extremely deep again, it will get nowhere close to last year’s record-setting 14 tournament bids.
One key date to know: Feb. 21, the day the NCAA Tournament selection committee reveals its top 16 seeds as of that point in time.
No, that does not impact the bubble, not directly. But the committee’s reveal and the chairperson’s subsequent comments do often provide us with some hints about which metrics this particular committee values most, how it views conferences as a whole and other subtle-but-useful indicators. We will try to identify those in future Bubble Watch editions.
For now, though, we’ll operate based on the knowledge we have from prior tournaments. Make sure to check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.
Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and rest-of-season projections.
Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a couple of wins away.
Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Current Totals
Locks: 18Should Be In: 9In the Mix: 27On the Fringe: 13
ACC
Locks: Duke, VirginiaShould Be In: Clemson, Louisville, North CarolinaIn the Mix: Cal, Miami (FL), NC State, SMU, Virginia TechOn the Fringe: Stanford
Should Be In
ClemsonWhat They Need: The Tigers only have four losses and are hot on Duke’s heels in the ACC standings, so it is difficult to envision them missing the NCAA Tournament. They lack high-end victories (just two in Quadrant 1 as of this writing), but they have opportunities coming up. Brad Brownell’s team finishes up its Bay Area road trip on Saturday at Cal before returning home to face Virginia Tech next week.
LouisvilleWhat They Need: The Cardinals’ resume numbers lag behind their quality/predictive metrics right now, so they need to pick up a few more victories before ascending to Lock status. They only have two home games over their next six, and one is against a red-hot NC State squad. With Mikel Brown Jr. back in the lineup, Pat Kelsey’s team is in good shape, but the mood could turn quickly if the Cards cannot build out their resume in the next few weeks.
North CarolinaWhat They Need: The Tar Heels are essentially good to go, and knocking off archrival Duke this weekend would push them into Lock status. Even a loss there and a win at Miami next Tuesday would probably do the job, which means we get to see national dunks leader Caleb Wilson in the NCAA Tournament. That is a win for everyone.
In The Mix
CaliforniaProfile Strengths: Three Q1 wins, zero bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference strength of schedule, under .500 against top two quadrants.Looking Ahead: Mark Madsen has the Golden Bears in contention for an NCAA Tournament bid in his third season, a major accomplishment considering their last appearance was in 2016. They still have plenty of work to do, starting with a huge home date against Clemson on Saturday. Picking off the Tigers, who are 9-1 in the ACC, would be massive, because Cal’s non-league performance does not offer much to fall back on.
Miami (FL)Profile Strengths: Strong road/neutral record, competitive quality metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1A wins atop profile, Q3 loss.Looking Ahead: Miami’s soft ACC schedule — no Duke, no West Coast road trip — gives the Hurricanes plenty of opportunities to accumulate wins. Their only Q1 wins (at Syracuse, at Wake Forest) are hanging on for dear life, so they have to supplement their profile ASAP. Fortunately, their stretch run offers real chances, starting with a visit from UNC on Tuesday.
NC StateProfile Strengths: Dominant record against Q2, outstanding metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q3 loss.Looking Ahead: A five-game winning streak has pushed NC State firmly into the field, and the Wolfpack are a win or two away from climbing up to Should Be In status. Will Wade’s team has rebounded admirably from an awful home loss to Georgia Tech, and if it can sweep the upcoming week (hosting Virginia Tech Saturday, visiting Louisville Monday) it will easily jump up a category.
SMUProfile Strengths: No bad losses, impressive metrics across the board.Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1A wins headlining profile, limited Q1+Q2 win quantity.Looking Ahead: SMU has accumulated three Q1 wins — three more than last season — but none of them reside in the upper echelon. The Ponies are comfortably in the field as of today, so it is difficult to criticize them too harshly, but missed opportunities against NC State (lost by 1) and at Clemson (lost by 4) could haunt them. Andy Enfield’s team must continue to stack wins this week while traveling to Pitt and hosting Notre Dame.
Virginia TechProfile Strengths: Perfect 5-0 record against Q2.Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, shaky metrics.Looking Ahead: The Hokies missed their chance at the ultimate needle-moving victory in the ACC, falling at home to Duke last weekend. After a full week off, the slate hands Virginia Tech two grueling road games: at Clemson and at NC State. Splitting those contests would push the Hokies toward the right side of the bubble.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas TechShould Be In: UCFIn the Mix: Oklahoma State, TCUOn the Fringe: Baylor, Cincinnati, West Virginia
Should Be In
UCFWhat They Need: The Knights got a taste of reality at Houston on Wednesday night, and their predictive metrics are still disappointingly low. But UCF’s resume metrics place them firmly in the field, as they rank even with teams like Florida, UNC and BYU. The remaining Big 12 schedule is tricky but doable, with only one game left against the league’s powerhouse top six (at BYU on Feb. 24), so UCF just needs to accumulate more wins.
In the Mix
Oklahoma StateProfile Strengths: Very good resume metrics, no bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: The Cowboys added a huge victory over BYU on Wednesday night to bolster their candidacy. That win, their first in Quad 1, adds true quality to a profile that was built mostly on quantity to this point. Their underlying numbers present a better case for selection than for high seeding, but for a program that has made the NCAA Tournament just once since 2017, selection is what matters. A trip to undefeated Arizona this weekend is all upside.
TCUProfile Strengths: Three Q1 wins.Profile Weaknesses: Hold a Q3 and Q4 loss, lagging metrics.Looking Ahead: The Horned Frogs are on the outer limits of at-large contention right now. The season-opening home debacle against New Orleans is going to drag this profile down all the way through Selection Sunday, offsetting a massive neutral-site win over Florida. Going 2-0 in an upcoming homestand against Kansas State and Iowa State is all but mandatory for the Frogs to move the needle, as their opportunities are limited down the stretch.
Big East
Locks: UConnShould Be In: St. John’s, VillanovaIn the Mix: Seton HallOn the Fringe: Butler, Creighton
Should Be In
St. John’sWhat They Need: A Friday win over UConn might seal the deal, but if not, it would get the Red Storm awfully close to Lock status. Their home collapse against Providence (a Q3 loss) is a thorn in their at-large profile, but they have taken care of business against the rest of the Big East. The conference’s lack of available quality wins limits their seed ceiling and leaves them at risk of picking up bad losses, but it would be shocking if St. John’s doesn’t lock in a bid soon.
VillanovaWhat They Need: Head coach Kevin Willard’s debut has sparked a resurgence in Villanova’s hoops program, quickly recovering from the disastrous Kyle Neptune era that resulted in zero NCAA Tournament trips. A home loss to Creighton has drifted into Q3 territory, and the Wildcats could use some more notable wins. But in the Big East, those are few and far between, so Willard’s squad must simply avoid land mines.
In The Mix
Seton HallProfile Strengths: Zero bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Weak-ish metrics, only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: The state of affairs in the Big East is sad to the point of only having one bubble team — and the Pirates may be on the wrong side of it right now. The league could end up with just three NCAA Tournament teams for the second time in three seasons. Seton Hall is the lone realistic hope for an extra bid, but the Pirates need to beat the Big East’s super-fringe bubblers (Creighton and Butler) on the road in the next 10 days.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, PurdueShould Be In: NoneIn the Mix: Indiana, Iowa, Ohio St., UCLA, USC, WisconsinOn the Fringe: Washington
In The Mix
IndianaProfile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, terrific quality metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Severely lacking Q1/Q2 wins (only three).Looking Ahead: Recent wins over Purdue and at UCLA have put the Hoosiers in far safer territory. Even a Tuesday loss at USC barely dampens their momentum. They now return home for a bubble battle with Wisconsin on Saturday and an extremely winnable game against MASH unit Oregon on Tuesday. A sweep would keep IU safely above true cut-line discussions before a truly enormous road week at Illinois and Purdue.
IowaProfile Strengths: Fantastic quality metrics, no bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Limited top-of-resume strength, poor noncon SOS.Looking Ahead: Sweeping the West Coast road trip at Oregon and Washington has put the Hawkeyes in excellent shape. Ben McCollum’s team is up to a dazzling 15th in KenPom and 19th in the NET, so you could make a case that Iowa belongs in the “Should Be In” category. The Hawkeyes still lack a true headlining victory (their best wins are at Indiana and at Washington), so we will make sure they take care of Q3 business this week (vs. Northwestern, at Maryland) before moving them up.
Ohio StateProfile Strengths: No bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, shaky resume metrics.Looking Ahead: Right now, Ohio State’s case boils down to, “Well, we beat who we’re supposed to beat … is that enough?” And at this stage, it might be! The Buckeyes will never feel safe unless they can pick off some high-end opponents, so hosting Michigan on Saturday is gargantuan. Jake Diebler’s squad competed in Ann Arbor for 30-plus minutes in the first meeting, but the issue during the last two years has always been getting over the finish line. The final month of the season is massive for the Buckeyes.
UCLAProfile Strengths: No bad losses, strong quality metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Under .500 against the top two quadrants.Looking Ahead: The Bruins have held up reasonably well without Skyy Clark, going 6-3 without their key shooter and secondary ball-handler. They need him back soon, though, because the schedule is about to get nightmarish. UCLA hosts Washington this weekend before taking the Michigan road trip (gulp) and then coming home to host scorching-hot Illinois (double gulp). Those tilts offer opportunity, but if UCLA wants to actually win one or two and bolster its resume, a healthy Clark would provide a giant lift.
USCProfile Strengths: Overall record and Q1/Q2 records both strong, excellent resume metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, lacking in true high-end wins (zero Q1A).Looking Ahead: The Trojans are in decent shape right now, holding a good record against the top two quadrants and a manageable schedule the rest of the way. The problem is whether USC can win enough against that slate with injuries cutting into the rotation. The latest visitor to the training table is star guard Chad Baker-Mazara, who was on crutches after the Indiana win on Tuesday. USC now embarks on its final cross-country Big Ten road trip, heading to Penn State before a massive bubble battle at Ohio State on Wednesday.
WisconsinProfile Strengths: Strong metrics across the board, elite victory at Michigan.Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: The Badgers get a nice schedule break this weekend: After a full week off, they travel to Indiana, who is returning from the L.A. trip to USC and UCLA. The Badgers are firmly on the right side of the bubble for now, and picking up another Q1 triumph on the road would push them towards wearing home jerseys in the first round. They are underdogs per KenPom in their next five games, though, which could quickly swing the outlook to alarming levels.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Tennessee, VanderbiltShould Be In: Alabama, ArkansasIn the Mix: Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&MOn the Fringe: LSU
Should Be In
AlabamaWhat They Need: The Tide just have to pick up a few more wins. They have played the toughest schedule in the country, and with such a loaded backcourt, Nate Oats’ team is well on its way to another NCAA Tournament berth. Alabama’s outrageously difficult nonconference schedule has kept its overall win total low, so we will avoid locking up the well-positioned Tide until they secure a few more victories.
ArkansasWhat They Need: Most severely, the Razorbacks need an ego boost after John Calipari and his squad lost at home to Kentucky. The Hogs trailed for nearly the entire game and then had to stew in that defeat for an entire week. A manageable Q2 game at Mississippi State awaits on Saturday, a perfect opportunity to reestablish momentum and get closer to the NCAA Tournament field.
In The Mix
AuburnProfile Strengths: Outstanding metrics, four Q1 wins, no bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses.Looking Ahead: Auburn is probably a win away from pushing up to the “Should Be In” category. Everything about the Tigers’ resume says “at-large bid”, but they have another brutal schedule stretch ahead (vs. Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt, at Arkansas). They could theoretically be 14-11 (5-7) after Valentine’s Day with work to do. On the other hand, a couple of wins in that span would vault Auburn into very comfortable territory.
GeorgiaProfile Strengths: Solid metrics, three Q1 wins and above .500 vs. top two quadrants.Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, took a Q3 loss.Looking Ahead: Georgia is reeling. The Bulldogs have lost three consecutive games, including two at home, to fall below .500 in SEC play. Their non-league accomplishments are meager (Q2 wins over non-NCAA Tournament teams in Florida State, Xavier and Cincinnati), so Georgia has to right the ship quickly. Opportunity knocks with two winnable Q1 chances: at LSU on Saturday, followed by a visit from Florida on Wednesday — a game Georgia won last year.
KentuckyProfile Strengths: Four Q1 wins (three in Q1A), elite noncon SOS.Profile Weaknesses: Under .500 against top two quadrants (barely).Looking Ahead: It is possible that no team outside of the top five or so nationally has had a better past four weeks than Kentucky. With Jaland Lowe lost for the season and Jayden Quaintance unable to return from knee swelling, the Wildcats have won seven of their last eight and are firmly in the NCAA Tournament field if the season ended today. Their metrics and overall win profile put them much closer to “Should Be In” status than to missing the field altogether. If Mark Pope and company finish a sweep of Tennessee this weekend, they will move up a category.
MissouriProfile Strengths: Two headline Q1A wins, no bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Zero notable nonconference wins, well under .500 vs. top two quadrants.Looking Ahead: For the fourth straight year, Dennis Gates did his Tigers no favors with a poor non-league schedule loaded with Q4 games. Kansas and Illinois, Missouri’s only two noteworthy opponents outside the SEC, blasted the Tigers, putting a huge burden on Missouri to rack up wins in league play. They have considerable work to do over the season’s final month.
TexasProfile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, well under .500 against top two quadrants.Looking Ahead: Texas is a great case study in the wins-above-bubble era. Focusing just on their best wins — at Alabama, vs. Vandy, NC State on a neutral floor — paints the picture of a clear NCAA Tournament team. But digging further into their profile casts some doubt, and their ailing resume metrics support a shaky case. They only play once in the next week, hosting Ole Miss on Saturday in a game with limited upside.
Texas A&MProfile Strengths: Three Q1A wins atop the resume, no bad losses, strong metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Poor noncon SOS.Looking Ahead: Texas A&M barely missed a massive road victory at Alabama on Wednesday. That’s the Aggies’ second narrow miss on the road in SEC play (along with an OT loss at Tennessee), but they are still tied atop the league standings and retain a sterling case for an at-large bid. Fellow SEC leader Florida comes to College Station on Saturday, offering a colossal opportunity for the Aggies to forcefully seize control of the conference title race — and their at-large possibilities. Incredible work by Bucky McMillan in his debut season in charge.
The Rest
Locks: GonzagaShould Be In: Saint LouisIn the Mix: Miami (OH), New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Utah State, VCUOn the Fringe: Belmont, George Mason, Grand Canyon, Nevada, Tulsa
Should Be In
Saint LouisWhat They Need: Currently bulldozing through the Atlantic 10, Saint Louis is in fantastic shape for an at-large bid. The Billikens sit inside the top 30 in WAB, and their quality metrics are on par with teams like Iowa and Auburn. They are much more concerned about seeding than selection at this juncture. This conference has a habit of eating its own at-large contenders, though, so SLU must avoid some harmful defeats down the stretch. The Billikens’ next two games are against the conference’s two worst teams, and losing would be lethal to an at-large resume.
In The Mix
Miami (OH)Profile Strengths: Undefeated!!, very good resume metrics.Profile Weaknesses: Horrendous NC SOS, played zero Q1 games, awful quality metrics.Looking Ahead: Miami is one of the great curiosities in the sport this year. The RedHawks have not played anyone of note and will likely end the year with no Q1 opponents. Only one foe, Horizon leader Wright State, is currently in the projected NCAA Tournament field. Their case is one of sheer success: Can you really keep out a team that simply keeps winning? Travis Steele’s team has a tricky test at Marshall this weekend in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.
New MexicoProfile Strengths: Competitive metrics.Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: In Eric Olen’s first season, it is wildly impressive that the Lobos are even in the conversation early in February. They missed a huge chance against Utah State on Wednesday night, leaving them firmly in limbo with plenty left to prove. This week’s games — hosting Boise State (Q2), visiting Grand Canyon (Q1) — could really bolster the Lobos’ resume.
Saint Mary’sProfile Strengths: Excellent metrics, no bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins.Looking Ahead: The Gaels are a headlining win away from feeling safe. Their first chance at Gonzaga got away, so they will have to wait until the season finale in Moraga for another attempt. This week is a “hold serve” type of slate, with a Q3 game (San Francisco) and a Q4 game (Pepperdine) looming. Without a top-shelf victory, the Gaels would do well to keep their bad loss column clean.
San Diego StateProfile Strengths: Excellent noncon SOS.Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: The Aztecs are about as squarely on the bubble as a team can be. Their resume and quality metrics are all in the mid-to-high 40s, exactly where a bubble team would land, and their lone Q1 win is offset by a disappointing double-OT home loss to Troy. After this weekend’s warmup routine against Air Force, the Aztecs get a week off before facing an imposing February run that will make or break their at-large chances.
Santa ClaraProfile Strengths: Competitive metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.Profile Weaknesses: Worst loss in bubble group, only one Q1 win.Looking Ahead: Following Gonzaga’s no-show at Portland, the Broncos shockingly sit atop the WCC standings by a half game. They would have Should Be In status were it not for a disastrous Q4 loss to Loyola Chicago, a result that is dragging down what is otherwise a stout profile. They have two gettable games this week (at Wazzu, vs. Seattle) before a crucial Valentine’s Day showdown with the Zags.
Utah StateProfile Strengths: Terrific metrics, sparkling record against top two quadrants.Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss.Looking Ahead: After a massive 2-0 week against the other Mountain West title contenders, USU is close to Should Be In status. A home loss to UNLV is holding the Aggies back somewhat, but if they win another game or two, they will rise a level. This week’s slate, at Wyoming and hosting Fresno State, offers extremely attainable chances to do just that.
VCUProfile Strengths: No bad losses.Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, iffy metrics.Looking Ahead: The Rams are on the outside looking in right now for multiple reasons, but they do have a clear path to change that. They can incrementally build their profile before traveling to SLU on Feb. 20, a must-win clash for VCU to realistically stake a claim on an at-large. Should they drop any games before that, they likely fall off the radar until that one, which means they need to beat free-falling Dayton (home) and awful La Salle (road) this week.
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