It’s No. 4 Duke against No. 14 North Carolina. Do you need anything else?! Every scouting report starts with the same question: Who are you guarding?
For North Carolina, it could look something like this:
Freshman guard Derek Dixon will take Duke sharpshooter Isaiah Evans. Running him off the stripe will be essential. Best shooter on the floor, and you can’t forget about his drives anymore.Veteran guard Seth Trimble will take Caleb Foster. Keeping him from getting downhill is paramount.Junior guard Jaydon Young will take Dame Sarr. Under-control closeouts will be key because Sarr is shooting just 28% on catch-and-shoot treys.Future lottery pick forward Caleb Wilson will take future lottery pick forward Cameron Boozer. Keeping Boozer off the glass will be crucial.Big man Henri Veesaar will take Duke sophomore center Patrick Ngongba. Pressure him to eliminate easy passing windows and maybe coax a turnover.
Vice versa, here’s what it could be for Duke:
Sarr will take Dixon, who is UNC’s primary ball handler. Blow up his pick-and-rolls and don’t let him get comfortable because he’s a dangerous shooter.Evans will take Young. Don’t let him get anything easy early or he could start hunting his own offense.Foster will take Trimble. Find him in transition and don’t let him get a head of steam. Don’t bite on the pump fakes and wall up on his slippery drives.Boozer will handle Wilson. Box him out and don’t let him have more energy than you. If he wants to take a ton of fadeaways, whatever. We’ll live.Ngongba will guard Veesaar. Don’t lose him on pick-and-pops because he’s shooting over 45% from 3-point range. Don’t let him go over his left shoulder.
Let’s dive into the rest of this rivalry showdown.
Duke vs. UNC: Need to know
Caleb Wilson vs. Cameron Boozer: The two best players (and NBA Draft prospects) will very likely be matched up. That’s glorious theatre. Boozer is stronger and a better shooter than Wilson. Wilson is faster and more vertically explosive than Boozer. Boozer does his work in the halfcourt. Wilson is a monster in transition. Both play incredibly hard and are wired exactly the right way. The winner of this one-on-one matchup could very well decide Duke-UNC.
Can UNC guard Duke’s layered sets without leaking oil? Duke is the best cutting team in the country. The Blue Devils average 12.7 points a night directly off cuts. No high-major team tops that gigantic number. Jon Scheyer’s offense is gorgeous because it has so many competent decision-makers on the floor at one time. Duke’s top three bigs (Boozer, Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown) are all phenomenal passers, and Duke’s spacing is usually outstanding. Can this UNC defense find its form again and guard multiple actions effectively? It lost its way with a barrage of coverage busts in early January. If UNC is not connected and communicating, it will get shredded by this Duke war machine.
Glass battle: Duke has been the best offensive-rebounding team in ACC play, corralling north of 38% of its misses. It’s also been the second-best defensive-rebounding team in league play. Offensive rebounding is often the lifeblood of this UNC team. The Tar Heels average 13 second-chance points per game. That ranks in the 84th percentile nationally, via CBB Analytics. Wilson is a relentless offensive rebounder. Veesaar will stick his face in the fan every single time. That duo is one of the best offensive-rebounding groups in the ACC. Oh, and Jarin Stevenson has at least one offensive rebound in seven of the last nine games. I don’t know how UNC wins this game without getting second-chance points. Duke’s first-shot defense will be dialed in, but the battle for the boards could flip this in UNC’s favor.
Where to watch Duke vs. UNC live
Date: Saturday, Feb. 7 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ETLocation: Dean E. Smith Center — Chapel Hill, NCTV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Duke vs. UNC prediction, pick
One extra layer is North Carolina’s potent, quick-strike transition attack against a Duke transition defense that has been shaky multiple times this year. Duke’s halfcourt defense can force UNC into some hiccups, but if the Tar Heels can get out in the open floor, there are buckets to be had. Ultimately, these frontcourts look close to a draw. Is Duke’s backcourt this much better than UNC’s? I can’t quite get there. Pick: North Carolina +6
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