AmEast Preview: Week 7 | Mid-Major Madness

As mentioned on Twitter, I’m heading to the Olympics in Italy on Thursday to watch my little cousin compete. His name is Atle Lie McGrath. He’s an alpine ski racer and the current favorite to win the slalom.

As such, don’t expect any AmEast content from me until I return to recap Saturday, Feb. 21’s games. Hey, even I deserve a vacation. Hold it down for me until I return, AmEast Sickos.

NJIT @ New Hampshire (6 PM ET, ESPN+)

NJIT’s defense bounced back in a big way last week, as the Highlanders’ shell defense overwhelmed Binghamton and Lowell’s rim-reliant offenses.

New Hampshire is a slightly different beast. The Wildcats are a surprisingly effective attack-and-kick offense, and that’s how you can punish NJIT’s defense. That showed in the first meeting, as the Wildcats generated 11 unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers and made five of them (1.36 PPP).

But that was all that New Hampshire did in that first meeting. When the Wildcats did try to get downhill or feed their post scorers, they were blocked seven times and coughed it up 15 times. Throw in the Highlanders’ 13 offensive rebounds (and 18 second-chance points), and they won the game almost entirely on shot volume (65 field goal attempts to 52).

Both teams shot over 40% from 3 in the first meeting. If that regresses on both ends, I suspect NJIT’s shot volume advantage creates an unsolvable math problem for the Wildcats. But, again, New Hampshire can make those necessary jumpers over the top.

TLDR: Advantage NJIT, even though I make the Wildcats 2.5-point favorites – my numbers have been high on them all season.

UMBC @ Maine (6 PM ET, ESPN+)

I thought UMBC was going to crush Maine in the first meeting, but that didn’t play out. The Black Bears’ stingy perimeter defenders managed to contain UMBC’s explosive guard trio (especially in transition), while TJ Biel went nuclear on both ends against UMBC’s undersized frontcourt. Ultimately, however, the Retrievers got downhill off the bounce and really won the game at the charity stripe (17-for-23). At the same time, Maine’s ball-screen motion was mostly lifeless against UMBC’s elite dribble defense, which is partly why the Bears couldn’t match the Retrievers in free-throw production (6-for-11).

I wouldn’t be surprised if that same game script repeated itself in the second meeting. However, there are a few material changes to note.

UMBC’s frontcourt looks far different. Jose Roberto Tanchyn has firmly established himself as the starting center, and I think he actually matches up OK with Biel. Meanwhile, Josh Odunowo has finally woken up, and his cutting, posting, and rim-running ability could pay dividends against Maine’s extended defensive structure that leaves the rim open.

At the same time, Maine’s backcourt looks far different. Logan Carey has been on a tear, while Mekhi Gray has had a massive impact.

All that said, I believe UMBC’s improved frontcourt will make a larger difference, given it’ll still be tough for Maine’s improved backcourt to create against the Retrievers’ perimeter defenders.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if this game played out in a similar way, with Maine hanging around behind an excellent game plan from Chris Markwood before the Retrievers eventually lean on the Black Bears in a single-digit win.

TLDR: Lean UMBC in a relatively tight game.

Bryant @ UMass Lowell (6 PM ET, ESPN+)

Of importance, Lowell should have Austin Green back this week. He put up 14/7/3 in the first meeting, including 12 free-throw attempts and five offensive rebounds.

He was a big part of Lowell’s relatively dominant 14-point win over Bryant in the early conference season. The River Hawks dropped 48 paint points and 20 fast-break points en route to an uber-efficient offensive performance.

Since then, Bryant’s defense has only gotten worse, but its offense has shown signs of life. Meanwhile, the Hawks’ lack of shooting and complete inability to play defense killed them during a four-game losing streak.

I don’t see Bryant keeping Lowell out of transition or off the offensive glass, but I could see the Bulldogs continuing their offensive improvements against Lowell’s league-worst 2-point defense (54%). Keegan Harvey has played much better of late.

Of note, Ty Tabales missed the last game against Maine, but the Bulldogs might’ve looked better with Ashley Sims II running the show, plus it opened up some minutes for Khalil Williams’ breakout game.

TLDR: Both offenses should have a good game, but still lean toward Lowell.

Vermont @ Binghamton (6:30 PM ET, ESPN+)

It was an absolute miracle that Vermont won the first head-to-head meeting. Jeremiah Quigley went nuclear against the Catamount backcourt, stuffing the box score to the tune of 21/10/8 with three steals.

That said, Vermont’s defense has trended up since Noah Barnett and both TJs got healthy. I’d also be shocked if the Bearcats shot 10-for-16 from the mid-range in the rematch. I’d also be shocked if the Catamounts shot 13-for-24 from the charity stripe in the rematch.

I’m partial toward thinking a healthier Catamount squad matches Binghamton’s physicality this time around, while Binghamton continues to flail in the AmEast basement. But that thought hinges heavily on Vermont’s offense finding some sort of groove after getting bodied in the first meeting — the Cats only managed .87 PPP, their worst offensive performance of the conference season.

Of course, Binghamton might be missing two rotational pieces who combined for 36 minutes in the first meeting: Ryan Richardson and Jake Blackburn. The Bearcats are so thin on depth already, and these injuries piling up pretty much makes them non-competitive in most second halves.

TLDR: I think Barnett and the TJs are healthy now, which should make a world of difference in the rematch. Even if Quigley goes crazy again, I’d be surprised if this wasn’t a multi-possession victory for the Catamounts.

UMBC @ New Hampshire (1 PM ET, ESPN+)

UMBC’s post and cutting defense are still its biggest weaknesses, so Belal El Shakery mauled the Retrievers in the first head-to-head meeting (18 points on 7-for-11 shooting, 13 rebounds, four assists). The Wildcats shot 24-for-40 from inside the arc (60%), 19-for-30 at the rim (63%), and 12-for-17 on cuts (70%) en route to 46 paint points. They registered a 3.8-foot average shot distance (95th percentile). They also won the rebounding battle (25-20, 11-3 on the offensive glass).

Even with Tanchyn in the lineup, I still think New Hampshire can replicate that game plan. But the key will be not turning it over 10 times and allowing UMBC to get out in transition for 14 fast-break points.

In that first meeting, UMBC created space with its guard trio, and those guys made their dribble jumpers (Ace Valentine, Jah’Likai King and DJ Armstrong Jr. combined for 44 points on 14-for-22 shooting. Armstrong made the game-winning free throws.) I still don’t trust New Hampshire’s individual defenders, so I expect a repeat performance.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game flipped at the charity stripe. UMBC’s free-throw voodoo is well known at this point (+21% delta in conference play), and that was in play during the first meeting (UMBC shot 13-for-16, New Hampshire shot 5-for-11).

TLDR: Good offensive matchup for both teams, so I think it’s a coin flip. If the Retrievers’ luck at the charity stripe goes south, I think New Hampshire pulls this one out.

Bryant @ Vermont (2 PM ET, ESPN+)

I think this will be another ugly offensive performance from the Bulldogs. They put up a meager 52 points at Patrick in the first meeting, and the Catamounts’ defense has only improved since.

That said, Bryant’s interior defense played excellently in the first meeting, mostly neutralizing Gus Yalden while keeping the Catamount guards from dominating off the bounce — the Cats shot 10-for-26 (39%) from inside the arc while generating just 16 paint points. Ultimately, it was Hurley going crazy for 26 points and the team shooting 9-for-26 (39%) from 3-point land that gave the Catamounts a 10-point win.

Vermont’s packing it in more than ever in its conservative base man-to-man defense, allowing the highest 3-point rate in the league (41%). Bryant has started to make some shots recently (perhaps because it has a point guard who can shoot), so if the shooting luck flips in the rematch, the Bulldogs could make this a game.

TLDR: Bryant could make this a game, but it’ll have to make its jumpers.

NJIT @ Maine (3 PM ET, ESPN+)

The only AmEast teams to beat the borderline-dominant Highlanders this season have been UMBC and … Maine????

Maine’s perimeter defense overwhelmed most of NJIT’s shot makers, while Keelan Steele kept Melvyn Ebonkoli from a big game on the interior. While UMBC had three guys who could eventually rip Maine off the dribble and get to the rim, NJIT had only one, and SebRob put together a heroic 24-point performance in that unfortunate loss.

But this time around, Maine will no longer have Steele, which will surely hurt in the rebounding battle. At the same time, Maine looks unbeatable when it’s making 3s, but the offense often dries up when the shots aren’t falling — those off-ball jumpers are essential for keeping optimal spacing in Markwood’s ball-screen motion. The Black Bears shot 9-for-20 (45%) from 3 in the first meeting, and they might fall apart if they can’t punish NJIT’s shell over the top again — they also turned the ball over 13 times in that first meeting.

TLDR: The Black Bears will win if they hit their jumpers. Vice versa, and they lose.

Albany @ Binghamton (4 PM ET, ESPN+)

As always, who knows who will be healthy for the Danes? Jaden Kempson returned last week, but Zach Matulu is still MIA — last I heard, he was in a walking boot.

Albany pieced together one of its most well-rounded performances of the season in the first head-to-head meeting. The Danes created off the bounce, made their off-ball jumpers, dominated the boards, and overwhelmed Quigley with their amoeba zone.

I’m partial to thinking we’ll get a similar performance in the rematch. Although the one reprieve for Binghamton might be Matulu’s absence, as his 14 points and nine boards will have to be recreated from the other Albany wings — the Danes are deep at that position, for what it’s worth. But, as mentioned, the Bearcats have essentially zero healthy players.

TLDR: Tough to come up with a cogent argument for Binghamton.