History of 3 seeds vs. 14 seeds in March Madness

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3 in men’s NCAA tournament play, with Oakland becoming the most recent surprise in the 2024 tournament, when the Golden Grizzlies stunned Kentucky, 80-76. While 3s have generally had their way with 14s since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the lower seed has won enough to catch our attention.

Here’s everything you need to know about 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds in March Madness.

History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March Madness

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985, giving them a 23-137 record all-time. That equates to a 14.38 win percentage.

Here are all of the times it’s ever happened.

14 vs. 3 March Madness upsets

Year
Result
Score

2024
Oakland def. Kentucky
80-76

2021
Abilene Christian def. Texas
53-52

2016
Stephen F. Austin def. West Virginia
70-56

2015
Georgia State def. Baylor
57-56

2015
UAB def. Iowa State
60-59

2014
Mercer def. Duke
78-71

2013
Harvard def. New Mexico
68-62

2010
Ohio def. Georgetown
97-83

2006
Northwestern State def. Iowa
64-63

2005
Bucknell def. Kansas
64-63

1999
Weber State def. North Carolina
76-74

1998
Richmond def. South Carolina
62-61

1997
Chattanooga def. Georgia
73-70

1995
Weber State def. Michigan State
79-72

1995
Old Dominion def. Villanova
89-81

1992
ETSU def. Arizona
87-80

1991
Xavier def. Nebraska
89-84

1990
Northern Iowa def. Missouri
74-71

1989
Siena def. Stanford
80-78

1988
Murray State def. NC State
78-75

1987
Austin Peay def. Illinois
68-67

1986
Arkansas Little-Rock def. Notre Dame
90-83

1986
Cleveland State def. Indiana
83-79

Some more tidbits:

In 20 of the 40 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed.
Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
No. 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Three of the last five 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State in 2015, Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were decided by one point.
The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA’s win in 2016 and when Ohio topped Georgetown 97-83 in 2010.
Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime. That was Old Dominion-Villanova in 1995, which required three extra sessions.
A 14 seed beat a 3 seed for seven straight years between 1986-92.
There was a four-year stretch between 2013-16 where a 14 seed upset a 3.
No school that’s earned a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed more than once. On the flip side, Weber State has won two opening round games as a 14 seed: 1995 vs. Michigan State and 1999 vs. North Carolina.

How much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?

A 14-3 upset is two times more likely than a 15-2 upset. Eleven 15 seeds have pulled off the upset since 1985.

Here’s the full list:

15-2 upsets

Year
Result
Score

2023
Princeton def. Arizona
59-55

2022
Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky
85-79

2021
Oral Roberts def. Ohio State
75-72

2016
Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State
90-81

2013
Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown
78-68

2012
Norfolk State def. Missouri
86-84

2012
Lehigh def. Duke
75-70

2001
Hampton def. Iowa State
58-57

1997
Coppin State def. South Carolina
78-65

1993
Santa Clara def. Arizona
64-61

1991
Richmond def. Syracuse
73-69

How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?

Teams on the 13 seed line have 33 wins in the opening round, meaning it’s happened 10 more times than the 14-over-3 variety. Here’s the full list of 13s that have topped 4s:

13-seed upsets over 4-seeds

Year
Result
Score

2024
Yale def. Auburn
78-76

2023
Furman def. Virginia
68-67

2021
Ohio def. Virginia
62-58

2021
North Texas def. Purdue
78-69 (OT)

2019
UC Irvine def. Kansas State
70-64

2018
Marshall def. Wichita State
81-75

2018
Buffalo def. Arizona
89-69

2016
Hawaii def. California
77-66

2013
La Salle def. Kansas State
63-61

2012
Ohio def. Michigan
65-60

2011
Morehead State def. Louisville
62-61

2010
Murray State def. Vanderbilt
66-65

2009
Cleveland State def. Wake Forest
84-69

2008
San Diego def. UConn
70-69

2008
Siena def. Vanderbilt
83-62

2006
Bradley def. Kansas
77-73

2005
Vermont def. Syracuse
60-57

2003
Tulsa def. Dayton
84-71

2002
UNC Wilmington def. USC
93-89

2001
Kent State def. Indiana
77-73

2001
Indiana State def. Oklahoma
70-68

1999
Oklahoma def. Arizona
61-60

1998
Valparaiso def. Ole Miss
70-69

1996
Princeton def. UCLA
43-41

1995
Manhattan def. Oklahoma
77-67

1993
Southern def. Georgia Tech
93-78

1992
Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma
87-83

1991
Penn State def. UCLA
74-69

1989
Middle Tennessee def. Florida State
97-83

1988
Richmond def. Indiana
72-69

1987
Xavier def. Missouri
70-69

1987
Missouri State def. Clemson
65-60

1985
Navy def. LSU
78-55