If you love Big 12 basketball Tuesday night was the night for you. The Big 12 was all over your television set.
From a tripleheader on ESPN 2 to a doubleheader on CBS Sports Network, there were great games all night and every single one of them had ramifications on either Big 12 Tournament seating or the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Meanwhile, there were just two women’s games on the schedule. But one game had my attention, and it had an impact on seeding for the Big 12 Tournament. It also might have had an impact on one team’s hopes of making the NCAA Tournament.
Here are takeaways from the night.
The Bubble
Being on the bubble can be stressful in late February. The Big 12 has plenty of teams hoping for a shot at the NCAA Tournament and all of them were in action on Tuesday. Just for reference, here was ESPN Joe Lunardi’s most recent seed sheet:
Did anyone’s bubble burst before the Big 12 Tournament? Let’s see:
UCF: No. In fact, after the Knights dismantled BYU, 97-84, in Provo, they should no longer be on the Last Four Byes list. The Knights should be solidly in with 20 overall wins and nine league wins. It was UCF’s fifth Quad 1 win and, with no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses, the credentials look great to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
TCU: No. The Horned Frogs beat Arizona State, 90-78. It’s only a Quad 2 win for TCU, but it was a game they needed to win. TCU now has 18 overall wins and is 8-7 in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have Kansas State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati left. Win two of out of three and TCU may be on solid ground going into the Big 12 Tournament.
West Virginia: Maybe. The Mountaineers lost to Oklahoma State, 91-84, in overtime. That was a game WVU needed. West Virginia has 16 wins but can still finish .500 or better in conference. That could help. But the Mountaineers have surrendered two Quad 1 chances on the road to TCU and OSU. That hurts, especially Tuesday’s result.
Cincinnati: Most likely. The Bearcats lost to Texas Tech, 80-68. Cincinnati is 15-13 after the loss with three games left. With games against Oklahoma State, BYU and TCU, Cincinnati needs to win out. One more loss and any realistic chance of sliding into the Tournament are done.
Baylor: Yes. The Bears pushed Arizona to the limit but fell, 87-80, in Waco. If we’re being honest, I don’t know why Baylor was on Lunardi’s list at this point in the season. Baylor will be, at best, a .500 team that goes to the College Basketball Crown because the Big 12 is obligated to send four teams to the event.
Arizona State: Yes. Arizona State fell to TCU. Like Baylor, the Sun Devils are 14-14 this season and I see them heading to the Crown, assuming ASU has a coach. Athletic director Graham Rossini has yet to decide what to do with coach Bobby Hurley, whose contract expires after the season.
The power of this conference is that even if you’re not among the national title contenders, every game has gravity. Few conferences can say that, and it keeps these bubble teams on the bubble longer.
The Double Bye
The race for the top four seeds in the Big 12 Tournament is nuts. Five teams are bunched up for four spots, which means one of them is going to have to play in the second round. All five are ranked teams and will probably still be ranked when they get to Kansas City. Crazy stuff.
For now, Arizona has the No. 1 seed with its win over Baylor. With three games left the Wildcats have a one-game lead, so they can ‘t relax.
The REAL fun is below ’Zona. Kansas, Iowa State, Houston and Texas Tech all have four losses. So … I tried to break the tie. My brain didn’t like that.
First tiebreaker is head-to-head. As a group, it’s collective head-to-head, with winning percentage from highest to lowest determining the seeds. Where did your favorite team end up?
Kansas: 3-1 (.750)
Iowa State: 2-1 (.667, must still play Texas Tech)
Texas Tech: 1-2 (.333, must still play Iowa State)
Houston: 1-3 (.250)
By winning percentage, Kansas gets No. 2, Iowa State gets No. 3, Texas Tech gets No. 4 and Houston must play in the second round at the No. 5 seed. But you can also see how huge the upcoming Iowa State-Texas Tech game will be. Plus, Arizona must play Kansas and Iowa State, and those two games could create more chaos.
The back-loaded schedule has been a bear for some teams — ask Houston — but it’s had the desired effect. Every game matters.
The Big 12 Women’s Crowded Bubble
The Colorado women were the hottest team in the Big 12 until Tuesday night, when they lost at home to Utah, 67-64. The game had huge ramifications for both teams.
Even though I believe the Buffs have the credentials to get into the NCAA Tournament already, ESPN has them as one of the final teams in the tournament. This loss hurt, especially with it being at home. Colorado has one more game left before the Big 12 Tournament, and it puts the Buffs in position to need to win at least two more games to lock it in. The loss also might take CU out of the running for a double-bye in Kansas City.
For Utah, this might be a game changer. This was a Quad 1 win for the Utes and gave them 18 wins for the season. They’re fighting on the First Four Out line with both Arizona State and Kansas. Right now, Utah’s record in Big 12 play is equal to ASU and better than Kansas. ASU has the best overall record of the three. Their NET ratings are bunched together, with Kansas at 51, ASU at 52 and Utah at 56.
But now Utah has three Quad 1 wins. Kansas has one. Arizona State has none. That might make a difference in a couple of weeks.
