Win totals for the upcoming NFL season have been posted at ESPN Bet.
At 11.5 wins, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied with the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs for the highest number on the board.
Nine teams have an over/under of 10.5 victories or more, which would be the most teams with a win total greater than 10 in a season since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. Eight teams had an over/under of 10.5 or higher last season, and nine teams reached at least 11 wins. Six others reached 10 wins.
On the other end of the spectrum is the Cleveland Browns, who have the lowest win total projection at 4.5. Five teams have an over/under of 5.5.
Here is each team’s projected win total at ESPN Bet, with relevant notes from ESPN Stats and Information, some data from SportsOddsHistory.com, as well as Mike Clay’s forecast from his model. (Clay’s complete 2025 season projections can be found here.)
For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
Baltimore Ravens (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.3 (NFL rank: 3)2024 record: 12-5Super Bowl winner: +650
This is Baltimore’s sixth straight season with a win total in double digits.
The Ravens have gone over their win total in back-to-back seasons after going under in the previous three.
The Ravens have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +650.
Buffalo Bills (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.7 (NFL rank: 2)2024 record: 13-4Super Bowl winner: 7-1
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The Bills have won 11+ games in five straight seasons.
Since Sean McDermott became the Bills’ head coach in 2017, Buffalos has gone over its win total in all eight seasons, the longest active streak of any team.
Josh Allen has won 10+ games in every season as a full-time starter.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 10.4 (NFL rank: T-4)2024 record: 15-2Super Bowl winner: 6-1
This is the seventh consecutive season that Kansas City has a win total of at least 10, the most of any team over that span.
In 12 seasons under Andy Reid, Kansas City has won 10+ games 11 times.
The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in six of the seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB.
Philadelphia Eagles (11.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 10.4 (NFL rank: T-4)2024 record: 14-3Super Bowl winner: 6-1
The Eagles won 14 regular-season games to hot the over on their total on their way to a Super Bowl win.
Before last season, Philadelphia had gone under the total in seven of its last eight seasons when it had a win total of 10+.
The Eagles have 11+ wins in three straight seasons, their longest such stretch since a five-season streak from 2000-04.
Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.6 (NFL rank: 17)2024 record: 9-8Super Bowl winner: 16-1
The Bengals have a double-digit win total for the third straight season (hadn’t had a win total of 10+ since 1989).
The Bengals finished 9-8 last season, missing the playoffs and going under their total.
Cincinnati is seeking its fifth straight winning season, which would tie the franchise record set from 2011-15.
Detroit Lions (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 11.9 (NFL rank: 1)2024 record: 15-2Super Bowl winner: +850
The Lions have gone over their win total in three consecutive seasons, the first time they have done so since 1993-95.
Before going 15-2 in 2024, the Lions’ best record was 12-4, achieved in 1991.
This is the Lions’ second straight season with a win total of 10.5, their highest win total over the last 35 seasons.
Los Angeles Chargers (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.5 (NFL rank: 18)2024 record: 11-6Super Bowl winner: 22-1
After going 5-12 in 2023, the Chargers went 11-6 last season with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, beating their win total projection of 8.5.
The Chargers won their final three games of the season to earn a postseason berth.
The Chargers have won 10 or more games in two of the last three seasons but only three times over the last 15 years.
Los Angeles Rams (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.1 (NFL rank: T-10)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 20-1
The Rams have gone over their win total in six of eight seasons under head coach Sean McVay.
Despite a -19 point differential, the Rams won 10 games last season to hit the over on their 8.5-win projection.
The Rams had 13 straight seasons of eight or fewer wins before McVay took over in 2017.
San Francisco 49ers (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.7 (NFL rank: 16)2024 record: 6-11Super Bowl winner: 13-1
This is San Francisco’s sixth straight season with a win total in double digits (10.5, 10.5, 10, 11, 11.5).
The 49ers won only six game last season after posting 12+ wins the previous two seasons.
San Francisco went 5-12 against the spread in 2024 and was 10-7 on over/unders.
Washington Commanders (10.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.2 (NFL rank: 21)2024 record: 12-5Super Bowl winner: 16-1
The Commanders had a projected win total of 6.5 last season, a number they cleared in Week 9.
Washington’s last winning season before last year’s 12-5 campaign came in 2015.
The Commanders were 150-1 to win the Super Bowl last year and came within one win of reaching the big game.
Denver Broncos (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.7 (NFL rank: 6)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 40-1
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Denver had gone under its win total for four straight seasons before a 10-7 campaign last year on a 5.5-win projection.
Last season’s 10-win campaign was the Broncos’ first season with double-digit victories since 2015 (12-4).
The Broncos were 12-5 against the spread last season and 8-0 straight up as a favorite.
Green Bay Packers (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.1 (NFL rank: T-10)2024 record: 11-6Super Bowl winner: 18-1
Green Bay has gone over its win total five of the last six seasons. The only under cam in 2022 when they had nine wins and projected total of 11.
The Packers have put together six straight winning seasons.
At 11-6, the Packers were one of three NFC North teams to reach the playoffs last season.
Houston Texans (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.4 (NFL rank: 9)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 25-1
The Texans are 14-6-3 on season-long win totals in franchise history but have only gone over twice in the last five seasons, including last season.
Houston has gone 10-7 each of the last two seasons, winning the AFC South both times.
The Texans have six double digit-win seasons in franchise history (since 2002). Four have come in the last seven years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.6 (NFL rank: 7)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 30-1
Tampa Bay won 10 games last season and has gone over its win total in five of the last six seasons.
The Buccaneers have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the second time in the last 16 seasons (also accomplished in 2020-21 with Tom Brady).
The Bucs’ total projection has increased from 7.5 wins in 2024 to 9.5 this season.
Arizona Cardinals (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.9 (NFL rank: 12)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 50-1
Arizona has had just one winning season since winning 13 games in 2015 (went 11-6 in 2021).
The Cardinals went 8-9 last season to beat their 6.5-win projection, snapping a two-year skid of unders.
The Cardinals doubled their win total from 2023 last season (they also went 4-13 in 2022).
Chicago Bears (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.4 (NFL rank: T-19)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 35-1
This is Chicago’s second straight year with a win total projection of 8.5, its highest since 2019 (9).
Chicago went under its win total last season, finishing 5-12, and and hasn’t reached 9+ wins in a season since 2018 (12-4).
The Bears’ last over came in 2018, with five unders and one push since then.
Dallas Cowboys (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.3 (NFL rank: 25)2024 record: 7-10Super Bowl winner: 50-1
Dallas had gone over its win total in three straight three seasons (12-5 each season) before finishing 7-10 in 2024.
This would be the 22nd consecutive season that Dallas has a win total of at least 8, the longest streak by any team this century.
The Cowboys opened last season 16-1 to win the Super Bowl. They are 50-1 this season.
Miami Dolphins (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 9.5 (NFL rank: 8)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 50-1
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Miami went 8-9 last season, its first time going under its win total since 2017 (four overs and two pushes previously).
The Dolphins have cleared 8.5 wins in four of the last five seasons.
The Dolphins were 7-10 against the spread last season, their first losing mark ATS since 2017.
Minnesota Vikings (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 14-3Super Bowl winner: 35-1
The Vikings won 14 games last season, blowing by their 6.5-win projection.
The Vikings have finished .500 or better in seven of the last 10 seasons.
Minnesota had a +100 point differential last season but will have a new QB under center in 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.5 (NFL rank: 23)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 50-1
Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and has finished .500 or better in 21 straight seasons, matching the longest streak in league history (Dallas, 21 straight from 1965-85).
The Steelers have gone over their win total in five straight seasons and nine of the last 11.
Pittsburgh has posted at least nine victories in nine of the last 11 seasons, which includes seven double digit-win seasons.
Seattle Seahawks (8.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 10-7Super Bowl winner: 60-1
Seattle has won 8+ games in 12 of the last 13 seasons and is 5-1-1 on win totals over the last seven seasons.
The Seahawks added Sam Darnold, who put up a career year with the Vikings last season while winning 14 games.
The Seahawks managed 10 wins last season but were just 6-10-1 against the spread.
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New England Patriots (7.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.8 (NFL rank: T-13)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 75-1
The Patriots are coming off back-to-back 4-win seasons, going under their projection both times.
New England’s projection has increased by three wins over last season’s number (4.5).
The Patriots have finished above .500 just once in the last five years (10-7 in 2021). The Patriots had 19 straight winning seasons from 2001-19, including 18 with double-digit wins.
Atlanta Falcons (7.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.7 (NFL rank: 27)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 60-1
The Falcons have gone under their win total in six of the last seven seasons, covering only in 2022 with seven wins on a projected 4.5 total.
Atlanta’s last winning season came in 2017 (10-7).
Michael Penix Jr. will enter his first full season as the starter after taking over for Kirk Cousins last season.
Carolina Panthers (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.5 (NFL rank: T-29)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 100-1
Despite a 5-12 record last season, the Panthers hit the over on their total wins projection (4.5).
Carolina has gone under its win total in five of the last seven seasons (won 7 on a 6.5 total in 2022).
The Panthers haven’t finished above .500 since 2017 (11-5).
Indianapolis Colts (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 8.4 (NFL rank: T-19)2024 record: 8-9Super Bowl winner: 100-1
The Colts finished 8-9 last season, falling just short of their win total projection of 8.5.
The Colts have not gone over their win total in consecutive seasons since 2012-14 (three straight).
The Colts have reached at least seven wins in four of the last five seasons.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.4 (NFL rank: 24)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 150-1
Jacksonville has gone under its win total in six of the last seven seasons, the lone over coming in 2022 when the Jaguars won nine on a 6.5 total.
The Jaguars had a win projection of 8.5 last season but managed only four wins.
Over the last 17 seasons, the Jaguars have had only three winning campaigns and one season of 10+ wins.
Las Vegas Raiders (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.6 (NFL rank: 28)2024 record: 4-13Super Bowl winner: 100-1
The Raiders’ 5.5-win projection is their lowest since 2019 (6, went over).
The Raiders have only two winning seasons since 2002 (10-7 in 2021 and 12-4 in 2016).
The Raiders went 4-13 last season but finished 8-9 against the spread.
New Orleans Saints (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 7.6 (NFL rank: 22)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 100-1
This is the second straight sub-.500 win total for New Orleans (7 wins, 1 loss, 1 push since 2016).
The Saints have gone under their win total in three straight seasons after going 4-0-1 in the previous five.
The Saints have finished over .500 in six of the last eight seasons but just one of the last three.
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New York Giants (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.5 (NFL rank: T-29)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 200-1
The Giants have gone under their win total in seven of the last eight seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2022 when they made the divisional round. Their seven unders since 2017 are the most of any team.
This is the Giants’ eighth straight season with a win total under .500. Their last projection over .500 came in 2017 when they went 3-13 on a 9-win total.
The Giants have just one winning season over their last eight campaigns (9-7-1 in 2022).
New York Jets (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 6.9 (NFL rank: 26)2024 record: 5-12Super Bowl winner: 150-1
The Jets went into last season with a win total of 9.5 but finished just 5-12.
The Jets have missed the playoffs in 14 consecutive seasons, the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, They have just one 10-win season over that span (10-6 in 2015).
Justin Fields takes over at QB for the Packers, whose win total is set four games lower than it was last season.
Tennessee Titans (5.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 5.6 (NFL rank: 31)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 200-1
The Titans have gone under their projected win total for three consecutive seasons.
This is Tennessee’s lowest win total since 2016 (6; went over with a 9-7 record).
The Titans have finished under .500 for three straight seasons. They had won at least nine games in each of the previous six seasons.
Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins)Clay’s projection: 5 (NFL rank: 32)2024 record: 3-14Super Bowl winner: 100-1
After putting together an 11-win season in 2023, the Browns won only three games last season (with a projected win total of 8.5).
Only the Panthers (-193) had a worse point differential than the Browns (-177) last season, but they won two more games.
The Browns have finished with a winning record twice since 2007 (11 wins in 2020 and 2023) and have one winless season during that stretch (2017).
