With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our NBA power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections down the stretch of the 2024-25 season.
The elite teams will power through, while the pretenders will fade away.
With the playoffs set to begin April 15, teams are either trying to get healthy for the postseason, fighting for playoff positioning or jockeying for the best lottery odds.
To help us sort out which clubs fall into which categories, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions the rest of the way. Our power rankings are not Joe Expert’s opinion but are instead based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.
TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions (offensive, defensive and overall ratings) better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).
Keep in mind that TRACR rankings will shift throughout the month. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page.
More From Opta Analyst
Opta Analyst’s NBA Power Rankings
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (TRACR: 14.1)
Record: 60-12
Last Month’s Ranking: 1st
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 100%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 68.4%
Trending: With a 14.1 TRACR heading into March 27, the Thunder are on pace to post the second-best mark since the 1986-87 season (as far as our TRACR data goes back). They would finish behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls team that won 72 games and the NBA title.
2. Boston Celtics (9.0)
Record: 54-19
Last Month’s Ranking: 3rd
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 100%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 39.8%
Trending: Payton Pritchard is putting up an impressive season off the bench, which is why he’sheavily favored to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award. His 233 made 3-pointers are the most off the bench in any single season in NBA history.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (8.5)
Record: 58-14
Last Month’s Ranking: 3rd
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 100%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 37.3%
Trending: Cleveland has won 10 games by 25 or more points this season, the second most such games in the NBA (Thunder – 11), and most in a single season in franchise history.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (5.6)
Record: 41-31
Last Month’s Ranking: 12th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 92.6%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 7.4%
Trending: The Clippers have been one of the league’s hottest teams, winning for the ninth time in 11 games in a 126-113 road win over the New York Knicks on Wednesday. In roughly a month, they’ve gone from 12th (1.6) in our power rankings to fourth (5.6) and improved their probability of making the playoffs from 61.2% to 92.6%.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (5.0)
Record: 41-32
Last Month’s Ranking: 6th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 86.6%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 5.5%
Trending: The Timberwolves have gone 9-3 in March, though they’ve dropped three of their last four following an eight-game winning streak. With Anthony Edwards leading the way, Minnesota is averaging 121.4 points per game this month (fourth in the NBA) after averaging 112.0 in the previous 61.
6. Houston Rockets (4.3)
Record: 47-26
Last Month’s Ranking: 9th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.9%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.1%
Trending: Alperen Sengun has four triple-doubles, tying Hakeem Olajuwon in 1989-90 for the most in a single season by a Rockets center. His eight career triple-doubles are now tied for third-most in franchise history with Russell Westbrook.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (3.6)
Record: 44-28
Last Month’s Ranking: 4th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 98.2%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 4.8%
Trending: The Grizzlies’ bench is averaging 104.6 minutes per game this season, the most in the NBA. It currently stands as Memphis’ most minutes played by a bench unit in a single season in franchise history.
8. Golden State Warriors (3.3)
Record: 41-31
Last Month’s Ranking: 7th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 86.8%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 2.5%
Trending: The Warriors are 16-5 since Jimmy Butler’s debut on Feb. 8, the fourth-best recordin the NBA over that time behind the Thunder (19-3), Celtics (18-3) and Cavaliers (16-4).
9. Milwaukee Bucks (3.0)
Record: 40-32
Last Month’s Ranking: 15th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.9%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 5.9%
Trending: Giannis Antetokounmpo has had an NBA-best 19 games with 30/10/5 this season and 147 in his career, the most in the NBA over the last 40 years.
10. New York Knicks (2.9)
Record: 45-27
Last Month’s Ranking: 8th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: <100%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.0%
Trending: The Knicks are averaging 116.5 points per game while shooting 48.7% from the field this season. The team has never finished a season with such high marks in both categories.
11. Denver Nuggets (2.9)
Record: 47-26
Last Month’s Ranking: 6th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.3%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.8%
Trending: Russell Westbrook has 342 games with 10/10/5, the most in the NBA over the last 40 years (Jason Kidd – 320 in second).
12. Detroit Pistons (1.9)
Record: 41-32
Last Month’s Ranking: 10th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.7%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.7%
Trending: It took the Pistons 72 games to reach 40 wins this season, their fewest games needed to reach 40 wins since 2007-08 (51 games). The Pistons have gone eight straight seasons without finishing over .500, the NBA’s longest active streak.
13. Indiana Pacers (1.4)
Record: 42-30
Last Month’s Ranking: 14th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: <100.0%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.7%
Trending: Tyrese Haliburton is shooting 8.9% better from the field since the All-Star break (53.8%) than prior to it (44.9%). That is the second-largest increase in the NBA this season (Brook Lopez – 10.4%).
14. Phoenix Suns (0.3)
Record: 35-38
Last Month’s Ranking: 23rd
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 11.2%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
Trending: This month, the Suns are ninth in the NBA in field-goal percentage (49.2%), third in 3-point percentage (40.2%), and first in free-throw percentage (84.4%). The only time Phoenix has shot 50/40/80 in the month of March was 1988-89 (51.1%/41.2%/81.8%).
15. Sacramento Kings (-0.4)
Record: 35-37
Last Month’s Ranking: 16th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 15.4%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.2%
Trending: The Kings have lost their last 28 games when being held under 100 points, with their last win coming on Dec. 29, 2021, when the team secured a 95-94 win over Dallas.
16. Los Angeles Lakers (-0.7)
Record: 44-28
Last Month’s Ranking: 11th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 96.0%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.0%
Trending: So far this month, the Lakers are allowing 20.0 fast-break points per game. That is the second-highest mark in the NBA, trailing only Utah (22.9). That doesn’t bode well heading into Thursday night’s game against the Bulls, who lead the league with 21.6 fast-break points per game in March.
17. Orlando Magic (-0.7)
Record: 35-38
Last Month’s Ranking: 17th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 65.2%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.4%
Trending: Orlando has allowed 107.8 points per game in the month of March, second-fewest in NBA. The Magic are the only NBA team that has given up less than 110 points per game in every month this season.
18. Chicago Bulls (-0.7)
Record: 32-40
Last Month’s Ranking: 24th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 37.0%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.9%
Trending: The Bulls have won eight of their last 10 (including road wins over the Lakers and Nuggets) and have gone from 24th in our power rankings to 18th. They’ve also improved their TRACR from minus-4.2 to -0.7 over the past month.
19. Portland Trail Blazers (-0.8)
Record: 32-41
Last Month’s Ranking: 19th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 1.1%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
Trending: Portland is averaging 16.4 second-chance points (fourth in the NBA) and 15.6 fast-break points (16th), the team’s best marks in both categories over the last 25 years.
20. Dallas Mavericks (-1.0)
Record: 35-38
Last Month’s Ranking: 13th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 12.3%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
Trending: Since acquiring Anthony Davis, Dallas has gone 6-13 without him. He returned from injury Monday and had 12 points in a 120-101 over the Nets, but sat out a 128-113 loss to the Knicks the following evening.
21. Atlanta Hawks (-1.1)
Record: 35-37
Last Month’s Ranking: 18th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 73.5%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.7%
Trending: Trae Young has a career-high 765 assists this season and is the first player since 2018-19 with at least 1,500 points and 750 assists in a campaign (Russell Westbrook). He’s the third player ever with those numbers plus 150 made 3s in a single season (Westbrook and James Harden – 2016-17).
22. San Antonio Spurs (-1.7)
Record: 31-40
Last Month’s Ranking: 21st
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Trending: The Spurs were in contention for a playoff spot until Victor Wembanyama went down for the season. They’ve dropped 11 of their last 18 after falling 122-96 at Detroit on Tuesday.
23. Miami Heat (-2.5)
Record: 31-41
Last Month’s Ranking: 20th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 24.7%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.6%
Trending: The Heat have won back-to-back games after snapping a 10-game losing streak on Sunday, their longest since January/February 2008. They still rank last in the league in March with 104.7 points per game.
24. Toronto Raptors (-5.9)
Record: 26-47
Last Month’s Ranking: 22nd
Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Trending: The Raptors had gone 0-18 when shooting 30.0% or lower on 3s since 2023-24 before beating Washington on Monday despite 27.8% from beyond the arc.
25. Brooklyn Nets (-6.0)
Record: 23-50
Last Month’s Ranking: 26th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Trending: The Nets are 0-18 at home when allowing 120+ points over the last two seasons – all other teams have at least two such wins. Brooklyn has allowed 120 or more points in four of itslast eight home games after not doing so in any of its previous 12 games at home.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (-7.1)
Record: 23-50
Last Month’s Ranking: 25th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Trending: The 76ers are allowing an NBA-high 123.4 opponent points per game since the All-Star break after giving up 112.9 prior to the All-Star break. Philadelphia is the only team in thelast three seasons to allow 10+ more points per game post All-Star break.
27. Utah Jazz (-8.4)
Record: 16-57
Last Month’s Ranking: 27th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: Eliminated
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: Eliminated
Trending: Walker Kessler leads qualifying players in offensive rebounds per game (4.6) and blocks per game (2.4). Kessler would be the second player since the merger to lead the NBA in both categories for a single season (Dwight Howard – 2008-09; min. played in 70% of team games).
28. New Orleans Pelicans (-8.8)
Record: 20-53
Last Month’s Ranking: 28th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: Eliminated
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: Eliminated
Trending: The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since a three-game winning streak from Feb. 23-27. They’ve gone 8-21 since a season-high four-game winning streak in January.
29. Charlotte Hornets (-9.4)
Record: 18-54
Last Month’s Ranking: 29th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: Eliminated
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: Eliminated
Trending: The Hornets have been outscored by an average of 15.1 points since the All-Star break. It currently stands as the third-lowest average post All-Star break by any team in NBAhistory, trailing only the 2021-22 Trail Blazers (-21.7) and 2020-21 Thunder (-15.8).
30. Washington Wizards (-11.9)
Record: 16-56
Last Month’s Ranking: 30th
Probability of Making the Playoffs: Eliminated
Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: Eliminated
Trending: Well, at least the Wizards have put themselves in position to capture the Flagg. Cooper Flagg, this is.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
