Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC Mexico City betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

UFC Mexico City is less than 24 hours away …

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., March 29, 2025) from inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. In the main event, former two-time Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno, takes on No. 8-ranked contender, Steve Erceg, in a pivotal 125-pound showdown.

We’ve started a new series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap South of the Border when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Mexico City betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Mexico City odds here).

We’re 3-0 so far, so let’s keep keeping on below …

Moreno vs. Erceg might be UFC Mexico City’s official main event, but Drew Dober vs. Manuel Torres is the people’s main event and hands-down the most entertaining scrap on the card.

And that’s because one of these guys is getting sent to the shadow realm by the end of the night.

Which brings me straight to MMAmania.com’s Weekend Lock: Dober is going to knockout Torres … regardless of his “new” strategy.

I get it — Dober might be on the back nine of his career, dropping three of his last four with two stoppages in there. But, hold up because those losses were to Renato Moicano and Jean Silva, who are absolutely tearing it up right now. Plus, the Silva fight only ended because of a gnarly cut … not because Dober was out cold.

And that other stoppage?

Matt Frevola finally cracked that granite chin (see it here); however, before that, Dober’s durability was borderline legendary. The dude is tough as nails, never shies away from a firefight, and lives by the “take one to give one” philosophy … even if he’s teasing a gameplan switch for this fight (sure, Drew, we believe you!).

Now, Torres? He’s a wild man — “Loco” ain’t just a random nickname. But, he’s sloppy and eats shots like they’re delicious tacos at a popular street cart. He got slept in his last fight against Ignacio Bahamondes (watch highlights), and even in his brutal knockout win over Nikolas Motta, he got cracked first.

Yeah, he’s six years younger than Dober and might hit a little harder, but his defense is basically nonexistent. That’s a recipe for getting starched against a veteran like Dober, who still possesses insane power in those hands.

I’m riding with Dober by knockout at +130. It’s a value pick for a guy who can weather the early storm and land a fight-ender.

Here is a brief counterpoint argument to take Torres:

GROK AI added this as well:

Betting on Manuel Torres for his fight against Drew Dober at UFC Mexico City on March 29, 2025, could be an intriguing option for several reasons, based on his fighting style, recent performances, and the context of the matchup. Here’s a breakdown of why you might consider placing a bet on him:

Torres is known for his explosive, high-octane approach in the lightweight division. The 30-year-old Mexican fighter has a reputation for finishing fights early, with 13 of his 15 career wins coming inside the distance—11 in the first round alone. Torres also has multiple paths to victory. While he’s a finisher by nature—50% of his wins are by submission—he’s facing a Dober who has lost 30% of his fights by submission. Torres averages 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has a 66% takedown success rate, contrasting with Dober’s 17% takedown accuracy and 56% takedown defense. If Torres mixes in his grappling (2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes), he could exploit Dober’s historical vulnerability on the ground, especially given Dober’s recent skid of three losses in his last four fights.

Manuel Torres To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +200

Manuel Torres To Win By Submission: +400

Manuel Torres To Win By Decision: +1100

Draw: +5000

Drew Dober To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +300

Drew Dober To Win By Submission: +1100

Drew Dober To Win By Decision: +225

Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Mexico City pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Mexico City card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Mexico City: “Moreno vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.