Camp Nou will host a finely poised Champions League last-16 second leg on Wednesday, as it is still all to play for between Barcelona and Newcastle United.
There was little to split the sides last week at St. James’ Park, with late drama ensuring both teams remain firmly in this tie at 1-1.
Harvey Barnes scored in the 86th minute, seemingly sealing what would have been a deserved win for Newcastle.
However, a late lapse in concentration at the back gifted Barcelona a late penalty, and Lamine Yamal fired home with aplomb on the last kick of the game to cancel out the deficit.
But back on home soil, Barca will feel confident they can get the job done, as they aim to better last season’s run to the semi-finals.
Newcastle will be determined to put up a fight and reach the quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
But who will come out on top?
What’s expected?
Barcelona did not have everything their own way at St. James’ Park, with Newcastle largely dictating the play even though they had less of the ball.
But Barca have won both of their previous home games against Newcastle in the Champions League, beating them 1-0 in November 1997 and 3-1 in December 2002.
And the Magpies do not have the best record on Spanish soil. They have lost five of their six away games against Spanish sides in all competitions.
The only exception in this run was a 3-0 win at Mallorca in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup.
Newcastle have faced Barca six times before in Europe, but their only victory came in the first clash, 3-2 at home in the group stage in September 1997.
Barca won each of the next four before the draw in the first leg, and they are expected to get back to winning ways against Newcastle, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 56.8% chance of victory.
Eddie Howe’s side pull off a famous victory in 21.9% of the pre-match simulations, while a second consecutive draw, which would send the tie to extra time, happened in 21.3%.
Can Yamal spark Barcelona?
While they underwhelmed on their trip to Tyneside last week, Barca got back to their usual rampant selves on their return to LaLiga with a thumping 5-2 victory over Sevilla.
Raphinha netted a hat-trick, albeit with two goals coming from the spot, with Dani Olmo and Joao Cancelo also getting on the scoresheet in a confidence boost ahead of this return leg.
Back at Camp Nou, Barcelona are a daunting prospect, and they have scored in each of their last 16 home games in the Champions League, netting 50 goals in that time (3.1 per game).
They have also won their last three such matches by an aggregate score of 12-3.
When drawing the first leg away from home, the Blaugrana have progressed from each of their last 10 Champions League knockout-stage ties. They were last eliminated at the quarter-finals in 2002-03 against Juventus (1-1 away, 1-2 home).
Hansi Flick will know they cannot solely rely on history in this case, and a big performance from Yamal could be the key to their passage into the last eight.
His equaliser (95:50) was Barcelona’s second-latest Champions League goal excluding extra-time on record (since 2003-04) after Neymar’s strike against Juventus in the 2015 final (96:38).
He only managed two shots in total, with his 0.83 expected goals (xG) total inflated by his penalty, while he failed to create a chance for his team-mates and lost possession a team-high 19 times.
Yamal, who has 20 goals and 14 assists in all competitions this season, has shown in the past, though, that he only needs a small moment to make an impact.
The 18-year-old has 12 goal involvements in his last 11 home matches in the Champions League (six goals, six assists).
His 17 goal involvements in the competition in total rank behind only Kylian Mbappe (20) when it comes to teenagers in the history of the Champions League.
If Yamal plays in this match, it will be his first knockout stage match in the competition played at the Camp Nou – 911 days after making his first European appearance for the club.
Magpies aim to spring a surprise
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games (W3 D3), giving them a good platform to build on heading into a very tricky away game.
They are looking to win consecutive away games in the competition for the first time following their 6-1 victory at Qarabag in the play-offs.
Anthony Gordon starred in that game with four goals, seeing him become Newcastle’s top scorer in the Champions League (10), overtaking Alan Shearer (six).
He started on the bench for Newcastle’s 1-1 draw at St. James’ Park, which was the 12th time an English side has failed to beat Barcelona in the first leg of a Champions League knockout-stage tie.
Only three of the previous 11 have progressed to the next round – Chelsea in 2004-05 (last 16), Manchester United in 2007-08 (semi-final) and Liverpool in 2018-19 (semi-final).
So, that penalty, which Malick Thiaw conceded with a clumsy challenge in the dying seconds, could come to cost them.
Newcastle will be determined to make sure that is not the case, though Howe will feel slightly disappointed that they did not have a bigger cushion before then.
The Magpies had 16 shots in total, though they only had four on target, with Barnes also striking the goal frame before opening the scoring.
They have proven their attacking threat throughout the Champions League, and Gordon (15 goals) is the only Englishman to score more for a Premier League team this season in all competitions than Barnes (14).
But it was Lewis Hall that Barca struggled to deal with in the first leg. No player on either side created more chances (five), made more defensive line-breaking passes (three) or won possession more times (seven) than he did.
While getting his team ticking in the final third will be important for Howe, defensively, they will also need to be at the top of their game.
They earned a dogged 1-0 win at Chelsea in the Premier League last time out, facing 22 shots without conceding, and it is that type of grit that could be key to them pulling off a shock win.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Barcelona – Raphinha
Raphinha has been directly involved in 18 goals in 15 home games for Barcelona in the Champions League (nine goals, nine assists).
Of players with 10+ home appearances for the club in the competition, only Lionel Messi (1.45) has a higher goal involvement per-90 average than the Brazilian (1.35).
And he will be determined to put in a better show in front of goal than he did in the first leg; he managed just one off-target shot that was worth 0.03 xG. He did, however, create a team-high four chances and have seven touches in the box, more than any other Barca player.
Newcastle United – Harvey Barnes
Barnes has been directly involved in nine Champions League goals this season (six goals, three assists).
With team-mate Gordon already on 12 this term (10 goals, two assists), the Magpies could become the first team in the competition’s history to have two English players reach 10 goal involvements in the same campaign.
Only Mbappe (14), Gordon (12) and Julian Alvarez (10) have been directly involved in more goals in this season’s competition than Barnes.
