With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams are now focused on the incoming season and being the final team standing to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, however, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series starts today with the AL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Toronto Blue Jays (94-68)
The Blue Jays only narrowly won the AL East last year, with the division coming down to a tiebreaker. They made a much more convincing case for themselves as the top dog in the division come the postseason, however, as they easily dispatched the Yankees in the ALDS and went on to make it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing that final game against the mighty Dodgers by just a hair. They went on to have an aggressive offseason in their efforts to stay at the top of the totem pole. The Jays lost Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt to free agency, but managed to retain Max Scherzer while adding Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to a rotation that already boasts Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage. Their efforts to improve on the pitching side didn’t ignore the bullpen either, as Tyler Rogers was brought in to support Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland in the late innings. Losing Bichette certainly hurts for Toronto’s offense, but Kazuma Okamoto figures to be an able replacement as a right-handed bat in the middle of the order, and the team also bolstered their outfield depth with the addition of Jesus Sanchez. Will that be enough to maintain control in the East, or will Toronto brass regret missing out on Bichette and Kyle Tucker this winter?
New York Yankees (94-68)
The Yankees only lost the East by a hair last year. Their plan for this season appears to be running back last year’s squad and hoping that the return of Gerrit Cole can push them over the edge. Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Trent Grisham, and Paul Blackburn are all returning via free agency. With that being said, the team didn’t make any significant additions aside from bringing back the old guard when it comes to free agency. Their lone major addition to the roster this offseason was a trade with the Marlins that brought back southpaw Ryan Weathers, who has never thrown even 100 innings in a season but does sport a solid 3.74 ERA across his last 24 outings. That addition to the rotation mix is matched by a substantial loss in the bullpen, however, as both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver eschewed the Bronx in favor of Queens during free agency. Perhaps the additions of Cole (as he returns from a season lost to Tommy John surgery) and Weathers will make up for those losses, but the Yankees will also have to contend with the injury bug; Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony Volpe are all starting the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt is already lost for the year to elbow surgery.
Boston Red Sox (89-73)
The Red Sox certainly had a busy offseason, but it’s not exactly the ones fans were expecting. Alex Bregman is suddenly a Chicago Cub. Both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu remain with the Red Sox. While the team’s elite outfield remains intact, the infield looks somewhat suspect. The addition of Willson Contreras at first base should provide some reliability that former top prospect Triston Casas has not been able to so far in his career, but the Red Sox will be banking on another solid season from Trevor Story after his bounce-back in 2025 while turning to Marcelo Mayer at second base and Caleb Durbin at third base. All three of those players have the opportunity to be solid, but only Mayer has a ceiling comparable to the impact Bregman offered and fans in Boston need not be reminded of the risks associated with handing the keys to a young player at second base after Kristian Campbell‘s rookie year. On the other hand, the team’s pitching looks better than ever. Garrett Crochet nearly won the Cy Young award last year, and this season he’ll be supported by both Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to give the Red Sox one of the more impressive potential playoff rotations in the game. Will that be enough to win the AL East this year, given the club’s lack of impact hitting additions?
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
The Rays are coming off back-to-back seasons where they finished just a bit below .500. After the rest of the division spent the offseason loading up on talent for the 2026 campaign, a lot will need to go right for the Rays to improve this year. Junior Caminero is a superstar at third base but the losses of Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks figure to be a tough blow this year. In typical Rays fashion, the club’s additions aren’t necessarily impactful on paper. None of Jake Fraley, Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins, Steven Matz, and Nick Martinez had impact seasons last year but they’ve all shown themselves to be more than capable of being effective major leaguers in the past. Additionally, young pieces like Ryan Pepiot and Carson Williams could plausibly take the sort of step forward Jonathan Aranda did last year, therefore joining Aranda and Yandy Diaz as strong pieces of Caminero’s supporting cast. Will all that be enough to overcome the Rays’ high-spending rivals?
Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
The Orioles had a disaster of a 2025 season but they resolved to fix their flaws in this offseason and made a strong effort to do just that. Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward brought in reliable, right-handed power that a lineup stacked with upside but lacking in floor desperately needed. A revamped rotation featuring not just a healthy Kyle Bradish but also a reunion with Zach Eflin plus the additions of both Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt certainly offers more upside than last year’s group, even if they failed to sign the surefire ace they entered the season widely expected to target. That improved rotation is also being supported by a bullpen that brought back Andrew Kittredge after dealing him away at the trade deadline and added Ryan Helsley in order to replace injured closer Felix Bautista. The bones of a very deep and talented team are clearly present in Baltimore but whether they can rise from fifth in the division all the way to first will surely depend on the health and performance of their core pieces like Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman. Gunnar Henderson remains a good bet to earn himself MVP votes but will the rest of that elite group of youngsters be able to start to catch up to him?
After a busy offseason all around the AL East, which team is most likely to come out on top this year? Will the Blue Jays hold on after their near-miss at a championship last season? Will the Yankees be able to get better results with the same roster? Will the Red Sox or Orioles be able to make an unorthodox offseason into a success despite notable misses on some stated goals for the winter? Or will the Rays once again work the magic that’s made them so successful in the past and surprise the league? Have your say in the poll below:
