Today is the day! Opening Day is finally upon us and the 2026 Cincinnati Reds season will get started later today. That means a lot of things, but one of those things is that it’s time for the staff here at Redleg Nation to make some predictions about the season.
Ashley Davis
Record: 90-72
If many of the “experts” can predict that Pittsburgh will be seven to ten games better this season than they were in 2025, then I can predict that the Reds will be seven to ten games better in 2026. Matt McLain rebounds from his abysmal last season, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder each take a huge step forward in their development as major league pitchers, and Eugenio Suarez uses his power bat to carry the offense and the team to 90 wins for the first time in more than a decade.
Doug Gray
Record: 84-78
The loss of Hunter Greene hurts. Cincinnati has depth and that will keep them competitive while Greene is out, but he’s just better than the other pitchers in the rotation and missing half of his starts in a season as a guarantee puts a bit of a damper on things and does leave the Reds with less depth to lean on in the rotation. The offense should be better. Like the pitching situation, Cincinnati has depth in the lineup now, too. That is something they didn’t have last year. The addition of Eugenio Suarez and Sal Stewart should add strength to the middle of the order and lengthen the lineup. Healthier versions of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer could do the same.
There’s still questions with the team, though. The bullpen has questions with it. Even with the improved offense there are some concerns that just about every hitter has with them about their performance last season that need to be answered in 2026. There are even some questions about the defense for 2026 with a lot of possible moving parts. It’s a team that should be good, and a team that has upside to be competitive for the division and more, but one that has a whole lot of questions and a lot less certainty than some of the true contenders in the National League.
Jim Walker
Record: 81-81
My prediction is 81-81, simply because at this point I don’t have a clue given what has gone down with the Reds starting pitching during spring training. However I would not be shocked if either of those numbers ended up 10 games too high or too low.
For the late tuners in, Hunter Greene is gone till June or July. Nick Lodolo is already into one of his blister episodes. Andrew Abbott’s spring ERA is approaching 12. Brady Singer’s blister episode was said to be a passing thing; but, he did not look up to snuff in Milwaukee on Monday. As if this was not enough to be concerned about, Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson did not make it to the mound in an MLB game in 2025 due to injuries. And, oh yeah, Chase Burns has something they are calling a “range of motion” issue. Otherwise the starting pitching is hunky dory.
John Ring
Record: 86-76
Lots of news from Spring Training: the resurgence of McLain, the blisters of Singer, the unbelievable surgery for Greene and the last chance for Benson. It’s all over now. Both good and bad news. The regular season is here. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has went from the best in the NL Central to a big question mark. The Reds outfield is a perceived weakness.
No one in the media is picking the Reds to make the playoffs because of the Greene injury. That’s fine. No one did last year, either. But their offense is marginally better in 2026 and their pitching deep looks to be deep.
Predictions: Make no mistake about it—the injury to Greene was devastating to the Reds. Either Benson or Hinds need to emerge as a Griffey-type player (Senior, not Junior) and the young but deep pitching staff must step up. I think it happens. 86-76 and the Reds make the playoffs.
Richard Fitch
Record: 90-72
The following is The Athletic’s pre-season power rankings and the Reds prospects for the 2026 season:
A 14-11 September record, coupled with a collapse of epic proportions in Queens was enough to propel Cincinnati to the postseason, where it promptly got swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miracles rarely happen twice, and the Reds didn’t do enough in the offseason to signal that their playoff berth wasn’t a fluke. Bringing back fan-favorite Eugenio Suárez is great, but it’s not enough to move the needle, especially not after the 34-year-old posted an OPS of .661 and .700 in the season’s final two months. Hunter Greene being on the IL to open the season has already put Cincinnati on the back foot before Opening Day.
Well.
Lost along the way of this “in-depth” analysis was the likely resurgence of Elly De La Cruz, free from the leg injury that waylaid his 2025 season. Ignored was the spring training play of Matt McLain, finally free of the shoulder injury that shadowed him all of last season as he fought to regain his footing and return to the player he was in 2023. No mention of the electric arm of Chase Burns, the return of Rhett Lowder, or the promise of Sal Stewart. Just the Hunter Greene setback. Apparently, none of that moves the needle for this writer.
More interested scrutiny says otherwise. The author is right about one thing. Bringing back Eugenio Suarez is great. Along with the rest of needle movers, the Reds can win 90 games this season.
Tom Mitsoff
Record: 86-76
For most of the offseason, I was very much hoping that Nick Krall would trade Brady Singer for a starting position player with a good bat. The past two weeks have showed why Krall makes more money than I do for our respective interactions with Cincinnati’s professional baseball team.
Hunter Greene is out until probably July after having bone spurs extracted from his pitching elbow. Nick Lodolo can’t avoid blistering his pitching hand and joins Greene on the injured list to start the season. Singer also developed a blister, but apparently it isn’t as bad as Lodolo’s, since Singer is starting Saturday. Andrew Abbott wouldn’t have retired me during the spring. For at least the first couple of weeks, Chase Burns, Brandon Williamson, and Rhett Lowder will be asked to keep this team in games. I’m glad there is depth in the starting pitching.
Generally, the Reds are indeed better on paper. I like the bullpen much better, and would like for Tony Santillan to become the closer. I’m anxious to see how Eugenio Suarez performs, but I’m not on the 40- to-50 homer bandwagon many people are. I hope it happens, but major league pitchers know how to get him out, and more specifically, strike him out. I’m anxious to see if Matt McLain’s hitting carries over into the season.
I’m on the fence about whether or not to call this team genuine contenders for a deep playoff run. But something struck me (not, not a bird or a low-flying plane) as I read C. Trent Rosecrans’ very optimistic outlook for the 2026 Cincinnati Reds. He believes that if the Reds are legitimately in the playoff hunt, not just on the periphery, that the front office will be willing to make a significant trade-deadline acquisition. I haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere, but with Phil Castellini taking over as controlling owner, it seems the purse strings may be loosened to a degree. They were apparently a legit contender to sign Kyle Schwarber. They opened the vault to bring Suarez in, when he appeared to be the lone big bat left on the free agent market. And now Rosecrans believes they might be willing to go for it at the deadline. I’m guessing he knows something about Phil Castellini’s intentions, which hopefully mirror recent history.
I’m going to say 86 wins this year, and as I (incorrectly) predicted last year, a tight race with the Cubs and Brewers for the division title. Pittsburgh does scare me. It’s all going to come down to how effective their young pitching can be.
C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic believes Elly De La Cruz could win MVP. We’d all love that. I think Sal Stewart could be at least as important to this team’s chances. You can tell from watching him, he is a very tough out.
The “window” for contention until Elly’s team control ends is the next three years. This team needs to be thinking nothing but, “What can we do to improve the big league team?” Now’s the time. Let’s enjoy.
The Full Predictions
FromWinsLossesAshley Davis9072Doug Gray8478Jim Walker8181John Ring8676Richard Fitch9072Tom Mitsoff8676
Last year all of the participants from Redleg Nation’s staff picked a record above the .500 mark. That turned out to be the correct pick as the team went 83-79 and made the playoffs. But everyone who gave a firm number went over those 83 wins as the predictions ranged from 84 wins up to 90 wins.
