Now, we’re down to only 16 teams.
We’ve had plenty of surprises in the opening weekend of this year’s men’s NCAA tournament. Iowa, which upset 1-seed Florida on Sunday, and Iowa State, which beat Kentucky without All-American Joshua Jefferson on the same day, are in the Sweet 16 together for the first time.
Alabama has been the same offensive juggernaut it was all season, even without Aden Holloway. And we’re not going to call Texas a Cinderella, but it’s the closest we have to one this tournament. (Per ESPN Research, this is the second straight year the Sweet 16 is made up of only major conference schools — the only two instances in NCAA tournament history in which the final 16 teams are all from major conferences.)
The top of the list is where it gets more complicated. No. 1 overall seed Duke is still a great team, but the Blue Devils are missing something with Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II not at 100%. This doesn’t look like the same team that beat Michigan in February. Houston, Illinois and Purdue also seem to be closing the gap on the group of remaining 1-seeds.
Here’s how we see the current landscape of the national title chase with the Sweet 16 approaching in a few days.
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1. Arizona WildcatsOriginal seed: No. 1 (West)Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Long Island 92-58 (first round); defeated No. 9 Utah State 78-66 (round of 32)
The Arizona Wildcats have depth, a great coach and an overall talent pool to win the program’s — and the West Coast’s — first national title since 1997. That’s why they’ve been picked by many fans to win it all. Here’s a skill that might have been overlooked: an uncanny ability to get to the free throw line. College basketball fans tend to resent games that include a lot of foul calls; they’d rather see teams run up and down the court and keep things moving and exciting. But that kind of play doesn’t always lead to victories. Arizona is one of the best teams in America at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and it is effective. The Wildcats have averaged 26.3 free throw attempts this season. They’ve recorded 72 free throw attempts in two NCAA tournament games. Even if the shots stop falling, they can still put points on the board.
Up next: vs. Arkansas (Thursday, 9:45 p.m., CBS)
2. Michigan WolverinesOriginal seed: No. 1 (Midwest)Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Howard 101-80 (first round); defeated No. 9 Saint Louis 95-72 (round of 32)
There was a specific moment Saturday against Saint Louis when everything really crystallized for Michigan. The Wolverines’ 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara had the ball near the top of the 3-point arc in the second half. Morez Johnson Jr. was camped out near the basket, waiting for something to happen. AP All-American Yaxel Lendeborg also waited on the perimeter, where he has shot 48% since the start of the Big Ten tournament. That’s three players 6-foot-9 or taller — three projected first-round picks in the 2026 NBA draft — all waiting to make something happen. The Wolverines are a collective 37% from 3 and have a top-three defense nationally. Only three teams this season have been able to solve the riddle that is Michigan’s dominance. There’s just too many ways this team can beat you.
As for that play? Mara had plenty of options, but he threw it to Johnson for an alley-oop.
Up next: vs. Alabama (Friday, 7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV)
0:19
Morez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oop
Morez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oop
3. Duke Blue DevilsOriginal seed: No. 1 overall (East)Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Siena 71-65 (first round); defeated No. 9 TCU 81-58 (round of 32)
Too often, we discuss analytics as if they’re advanced algebra equations that can confuse more than clarify the game. It’s unfortunate, because analytics can tell us a lot about the difference one player can make for his team. Case in point: With Caleb Foster sidelined by injury, Isaiah Evans has become the second-most impactful offensive player on Duke’s roster behind Cameron Boozer, per EvanMiya. Evans also is the third-most significant defensive presence for the team with Patrick Ngongba II (13 minutes against TCU on Saturday) still not at 100%. Duke is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five years largely because Boozer is the best player in men’s college basketball; he has recorded 41 points (including shooting 66% from inside the arc and 18-of-19 from the free throw line), 24 rebounds and seven assists in the NCAA tournament so far. But Evans (16.5 points per game) has stepped up for a short-handed Duke squad at the most crucial juncture of the season and has left his mark.
Up next: vs. St. John’s (Friday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
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4. Houston CougarsOriginal seed: No. 2 (South)Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Idaho 78-47 (first round); defeated No. 10 Texas A&M 88-57 (round of 32)
Kelvin Sampson always saves his best for last. Since 2021-22, his Cougars tend to play their best basketball between Feb. 1 and the end of the season. So far, they’re 70-15 overall in that period, including this year’s run to the Sweet 16. Once that calendar turns to February, they become one of the most imposing programs in the country. This year, the Cougars have been ranked No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1. Since the beginning of the Big 12 tournament, they’ve shot 42% from 3. And in their past three wins, they’ve held their opponents (Kansas, Idaho, Texas A&M) to an average of 50.3 points. Redshirt senior Emanuel Sharp and freshman Kingston Flemings are the stars of the backcourt for a team that’s going to try to finish strong again.
Up next: vs. Illinois (Thursday, 10:05 p.m., TBS/truTV)
5. Illinois Fighting IlliniOriginal seed: No. 3 (South)Tournament results: Defeated No. 14 Penn 105-70 (first round); defeated No. 11 VCU 76-55 (round of 32)
Ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency for the bulk of the season, Illinois put together massive runs to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second time in three years. In the first round against Penn, the Illini started the second half ahead by 10 points but 10 minutes later pushed their advantage to 26. On Saturday against VCU, they turned a seven-point halftime lead into a 22-point edge after a 24-9 run; the Illini registered 141 points per 100 possessions in that game, a more efficient scoring clip than that of the Denver Nuggets. Few teams have these kinds of knockout punches in their arsenal. Led by freshman Keaton Wagler (32 points, nine assists, 50% from beyond the arc in two NCAA tournament games), this group hasn’t even broken a sweat yet on its way to the second weekend.
Up next: vs. Houston (Thursday, 10:05 p.m., TBS/truTV)
6. Iowa State CyclonesOriginal seed: No. 2 (Midwest)Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Tennessee State 108-74 (first round); defeated No. 7 Kentucky 82-63 (round of 32)
Tamin Lipsey played the game of his life Sunday. He took command and refocused the Cyclones after Kentucky’s 20-9 start, and he ended with a career-high 26 points and 10 assists. The Cyclones’ second-round win proved that, even without injured All-American Joshua Jefferson, they’re still capable of being an aggressively defensive team and a fluid offensive squad that whips the ball around the court until it finds the best shot. Iowa State has been 18-2 this season when Lipsey, a 6-foot-1 native of Ames, Iowa, records a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio or better. He reached that mark on Sunday, helping his team record 34 points in the paint and score 25 points off 20 Kentucky turnovers. The Cyclones might struggle against the best teams in the field if Jefferson doesn’t return. But when their hometown hero is good, they’ll always have a chance.
Up next: vs. Tennessee (Friday, 10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV)
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7. Purdue BoilermakersOriginal seed: No. 2 (West)Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Queens University 104-71 (first round); defeated No. 7 Miami 79-69 (round of 32)
Sometimes, it just comes down to the numbers — especially when the numbers are jaw-dropping. Purdue has won its past six games, including the Big Ten tournament championship over Michigan. Over that stretch, the Boilermakers, per BartTorvik, have had the best offense in America — even superior to that of Illinois, the top team in adjusted offensive efficiency. It gets better. The Boilermakers have made 177 of their 342 field goal attempts (52%) during that span. Since the start of the Big Ten tourney, they have taken nearly 22 3-pointers per game, making 40% of them, and also have grabbed 40% of their missed shots. What does it all mean? Right now, Purdue is an offensive bulldozer that is launching 3-pointers like the Golden State Warriors, hitting shots all over the court and securing second-chance opportunities when it misses. Good luck trying to slow down this group.
Up next: vs. Texas (Thursday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
8. Michigan State SpartansOriginal seed: No. 2 (East)Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Bryant 92-67 (first round); defeated No. 6 Louisville 77-69 (round of 32)
Tom Izzo’s best teams feature dominant point guards. He won his only national title with Mateen Cleaves in 2000 and reached the Final Four with former Big Ten players of the year Kalin Lucas (2009, 2010) and Cassius Winston (2019). This season, his dominant PG is Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the nation in assists with 9.4 per game. In the NCAA tournament wins over North Dakota State and Louisville, Fears had a combined 27 assists and only nine turnovers. This season’s Spartans — who also have a top-15 defense — form a tight-knit group that has followed Fears’ lead on offense. At any moment, Coen Carr can slash to the rim for a dunk or Jaxon Kohler can space the court with a corner 3. Fears himself can create off the dribble and score. The best passer in college basketball, on a squad that has made 42% of its shots beyond the arc over the past month, has been Izzo’s ticket to another Sweet 16 appearance.
Up next: vs. UConn (Friday, 9:45 p.m., CBS)
9. St. John’s Red StormOriginal seed: No. 5 (East)Tournament results: Defeated No. 12 Northern Iowa 79-53 (first round); defeated No. 4 Kansas 67-65 (round of 32)
Rick Pitino has coached in the NBA twice. He has dealt with scandals at multiple programs. He has coached overseas. Now, after returning to college basketball a few years ago, he’s the king of New York. Because he has led St. John’s to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999. It’s the fourth program he has taken to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. But this particular team didn’t do it with finesse. St. John’s shot 51% from inside the arc (218th nationally) and 33% from beyond (192nd nationally) this season. But none of that showed up Sunday against Kansas. Other than a boost from Bryce Hopkins (an unexpected 6-for-9 outing from the 3-point line after making 31% of those shots this season entering the game), the Red Storm beat Kansas with a tenacious defense (18 points off 16 Kansas turnovers) and by outlasting their opponent. Right down to Dylan Darling’s winning layup at the buzzer. St. John’s has lost only one game since Jan. 3 because it just refuses to break in the most significant moments.
Up next: vs. Duke (Friday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
0:49
St. John’s stuns Kansas at the buzzer to reach Sweet 16
Dylan Darling’s first basket of the game is a layup as time expires to win it for St. John’s in dramatic fashion.
10. UConn HuskiesOriginal seed: No. 2 (East)Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Furman 82-71 (first round); defeated No. 7 UCLA 73-57 (round of 32)
Dan Hurley is back in the Sweet 16 with a roster that has experienced turnover yet still has some sense of continuity. Weird losses at Marquette and vs. Creighton lowered expectations for this team entering the NCAA tournament, and it seemed as if UConn was holding to those expectations. It had more trouble than anticipated early against UCLA, despite the Bruins not having their best player. But, as they’ve also done this season, the Huskies demonstrated they have the players to win ugly, get rebounds, defend well and hit shots. Braylon Mullins doesn’t look like a freshman anymore. Alex Karaban had a career-high 27 points Sunday. Tarris Reed Jr. has been unstoppable on his best nights. Overall, the Huskies held UCLA to 91 points per 100 possessions. They have the tools to make, or match, history, in part because they know who they are perhaps more than any other team in the field.
Up next: vs. Michigan State (Friday, 9:45 p.m., CBS)
11. Arkansas RazorbacksOriginal seed: No. 4 (West)Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Hawai’i 97-78 (first round); defeated No. 12 High Point 94-88 (round of 32)
Derrick Rose led Memphis to the 2008 national title game as one of the most explosive point guards the sport had seen. John Wall’s speed was unmatched during his lone college season in 2009-10, when he took Kentucky to the Elite Eight. De’Aaron Fox’s sheer efficiency charged another Kentucky run to the Elite Eight during the 2016-17 campaign. All were coached by John Calipari. At Arkansas this season, Calipari has a combination of all three in his star freshman Darius Acuff Jr. Acuff was the Razorbacks’ only answer to upset-minded High Point and Rob Martin (30 points) in Saturday’s second-round battle. But at the end of that tight game, the whole basketball world knew who would take the last shots: Acuff (36 points, six assists). He has more than made the case that he is the best player in the field right now.
Up next: vs. Arizona (Thursday, 9:45 p.m., CBS)
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12. Alabama Crimson TideOriginal seed: No. 3 (Midwest)Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Hofstra 90-70 (first round); defeated No. 5 Texas Tech 90-65 (round of 32)
Few teams could learn their second-best player — a guard who led the roster in scoring in four of the last 11 games entering the NCAA tournament — was out because of legal issues and then win a pair of NCAA tournament games decisively. But that’s what Alabama did days after Aden Holloway was arrested on a felony drug charge. The Tide had a 29-point edge over Texas Tech in the final five minutes Sunday, two days after defeating popular Cinderella pick Hofstra by 20. Coach Nate Oats’ machine was working during the opening weekend because Labaron Philon Jr. has carried the offensive load and players such as Latrell Wrightsell have filled the void created by Holloway’s absence. In the second half Sunday, Alabama scored at a clip of 164 points per 100 possessions, which would make the Showtime Lakers blush. Translation: Even short-handed, Alabama has a system that can steamroll opposing teams.
Up next: vs. Michigan (Friday, 7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV)
13. Nebraska CornhuskersOriginal seed: No. 4 (South)Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Troy 76-47 (first round); defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt 74-72 (round of 32)
The best story of the NCAA tournament continues. More than seven decades ago, in 1954, Jerry Bush accepted the men’s basketball coaching job at Nebraska. His daughter, Karen, had a son named Fred in 1972. Fred just led Nebraska to the first Sweet 16 in school history with his son Sam Hoiberg, who finished with eight points and six assists in a thriller against Vanderbilt on Saturday. It’s an incredible story. But the third-to-last possession — before Tyler Tanner nearly won it for the Commodores on a beyond half-court heave — is the true story of Nebraska’s season. Before what would be Braden Frager’s winning layup for the Huskers, Tanner was trapped by a pair of defenders on the baseline. It’s why Pryce Sandfort (19.0 PPG in the NCAA tournament) & Co. have the Big Ten’s best defense this season.
Up next: vs. Iowa (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV)
0:32
Nebraska wins as Vanderbilt’s 49-foot heave narrowly misses
Braden Frager scores the go-ahead basket for Nebraska in the final seconds, while Tyler Tanner’s heave almost drops as the Cornhuskers outlast the Commodores.
14. Tennessee VolunteersOriginal seed: No. 6 (Midwest)Tournament results: Defeated No. 11 Miami (Ohio) 78-56 (first round); defeated No. 3 Virginia 79-72 (round of 32)
More than a decade ago, Rick Barnes asked Garrett Medenwald to join his staff at Texas as an assistant strength coach. Without hesitation, Medenwald packed up his car and drove from Wisconsin. He has been at Barnes’ side since. There was a time in the sport when players avoided strength training, worrying about it adversely affecting the way they play. But Barnes assumed the opposite and invested in a strength coaching staff long before it became the norm. The result is that Tennessee has been one of the strongest teams in men’s college basketball during Barnes’ tenure with the Volunteers. That brawn is most visible on defense: The Vols have been in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency in seven of Barnes’ 11 seasons, including this season’s group, which forced Virginia into tough shots late and battled the Cavaliers in the paint for the win Sunday.
Up next: vs. Iowa State (Friday, 10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV)
15. Iowa HawkeyesOriginal seed: No. 9 (South)Tournament results: Defeated No. 8 Clemson 67-61 (first round); defeated No. 1 Florida 73-72 (round of 32)
A team’s season can flip in an instant. The Hawkeyes were 3-7 in their previous 10 games entering the NCAA tournament. During that stretch, they were sub-50 in offensive and defensive efficiency, per BartTorvik, and had shot 31% from 3. They seemed destined for an early exit in the NCAA tournament — not their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999. It’s clear now that Iowa’s late slip was just a blip. Remember, before that monthlong slide, the Hawkeyes were top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency in coach Ben McCollum’s first season. They also forced turnovers on nearly one-fifth of their opponents’ possessions (10th nationally) and made 38% of their 3-point attempts. They were a good team. And then, weeks later, Alvaro Folgueiras made the winning 3-pointer in the upset of 1-seed and defending champion Florida. And just like that, the Hawkeyes are winning again. In the NCAA tournament, they’re resembling the version that excelled over the first three months of the season.
Up next: vs. Nebraska (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., TBS/truTV)
16. Texas LonghornsOriginal seed: No. 11 (West)Tournament results: Defeated No. 11 NC State 68-66 (First Four); defeated No. 6 BYU 79-71 (first round); defeated No. 3 Gonzaga 74-68 (round of 32)
The Sweet 16 has become a rite of passage for Sean Miller: He has now reached the second weekend with three different programs (and in both separate stints at Xavier). But this one is the most surprising. There were few signs that Texas, led by Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark, would make it to the Sweet 16 for only the second time since 2008. The Longhorns had been 1-5 leading into the NCAA tournament after ranking 10th in defensive efficiency in the SEC. But those numbers overshadowed two of Texas’ strengths: 6-foot-8 guard Dailyn Swain (12.6 points, 5.3 assists, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals per game in three NCAA tournament games) and 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis (18.3 points, 11.0 rebounds in the NCAA tournament) have perplexed all three opponents so far in the postseason. The Longhorns held NC State, BYU and Gonzaga — all teams ranked in the top 35 in offensive efficiency nationally — to a respectable average of 103 points per 100 possessions.
Up next: vs. Purdue (Thursday, 7:10 p.m., CBS)
