Ranking Final Four teams on how likely they are to win the national title

The Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in men’s college basketball is set, and it should be a fantastic pair of national semifinal games on Saturday.

No. 2 seed UConn won on a buzzer-beater to stun top-seeded Duke to secure the East Region’s crown. The Huskies have claimed two of the past three national titles.

The other Final Four participants haven’t had the same amount of recent Big Dance success. Michigan returns to the Final Four for the first time since 2018, Illinois is back for the first occasion since 2005 and Arizona is in the national semifinals for the first instance dating back to 2001.

All four squads are more than capable of cutting down the nets in a week, although some have a better chance than others.

Final Four teams ranked on likelihood to win title

4. Illinois Fighting Illini2025-26 record: 28-8 overallBig Dance seed: No. 3 in South Region

Why Illinois can win it all: The cliche is that defense wins championships, however, offense can as well. And the Fighting Illini is excellent on offense, averaging 84.4 points per game. Plus, KenPom rates Illinois as the country’s No. 1 team in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Additionally, the Fighting Illini takes care of the ball well, averaging just 8.9 turnovers per contest.

Why Illinois won’t cut down the nets: Perhaps the biggest dilemma for the Fighting Illini is that it has already lost this season to its Final Four adversary, UConn. In late November of last year, the Huskies beat Illinois, 74-61, at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

3. UConn Huskies2025-26 record: 33-5 overallBig Dance seed: No. 2 in East Region

Why UConn can win it all: The Huskies have the track record to get it done, having captured national championships in 2023 and 2024. Plus, UConn possesses the best head coach among the last four teams remaining in Dan Hurley.

Why UConn won’t cut down the nets: Senior center Tarris Reed Jr. has been phenomenal in the NCAA Tournament, but if he gets into foul trouble, that’s concerning for the Huskies. Additionally, UConn’s scoring production can sometimes rely too heavily on Reed and senior forward Alex Karaban (although he only scored five points in the Elite Eight win over Duke).

2. Arizona Wildcats2025-26 record: 36-2 overallBig Dance seed: No. 1 seed in West Region

Why Arizona can win it all: It’s a shame that the Wildcats and the Wolverines have to meet in the national semifinals, because they’re the best two teams standing. Arizona’s balance is tremendous. The Wildcats are in the top five of KenPom’s adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. Seven players average at least eight points per game. Oh, and if Arizona gets by Michigan and battles UConn in the final contest, the Wildcats already defeated the Huskies, 71-67, on the road last November.

Why Arizona won’t cut down the nets: The Wildcats commit 10.8 turnovers per encounter, which isn’t awful. However, throughout the 2025-26 campaign, when opponents employ a press against Arizona, the Wildcats have a tendency to commit untimely miscues, which can result in Arizona coughing up large leads. At the Final Four, every possession is critical, and the Wildcats can ill-afford to give away possessions without getting a shot off.

1. Michigan Wolverines2025-26 record: 35-3 overallBig Dance seed: No. 1 in Midwest Region

Why Michigan can win it all: The Wolverines have been destroying their competition all season long, and that’s held true in the NCAA Tournament, too. Michigan has won all four of its March Madness games by double-digits and scored at least 90 points in every victory. To make matters worse for its foes, the Wolverines boast KenPom’s No. 1 national spot in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Why Michigan won’t cut down the nets: It’s hard to find a lot of weaknesses with this Wolverines squad. They do commit 12 turnovers per game, so Arizona will want to take advantage of that in the Final Four. Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg has arguably been the top player in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. If he gets into foul trouble or has an off night, that could pose a problem for Michigan’s title aspirations.