UNC basketball is special but still not close to powerhouse

UNC basketball is special but still not close to powerhouse originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Times are changing and the last people to get that seem to be those running historically successful programs. Recently, the University of North Carolina decided to move on from head coach Hubert Davis.

That move created a general sense that UNC can secure any coach they may want, simply because they are North Carolina. It’s easy to see why people think that. History, hardware, sustained success over time, yet very little of that still carries the weight it once did.

NIL and the transfer portal have changed the formula. Before, the majority of players tried to land at the top programs. Even a legend like Michael Jordan was expected to sit on the bench and wait for his time, conceptually. The idea back then was so ubiquitous that the idea of a freshman taking the game-winning shot in a national championship game was considered lunacy.

Such an eventuality does not exist today. There is no scenario where a Michael Jordan, Kevin Durant or AJ Dybantsa type talent is going to sit and bide their time. That hasn’t been common for over 20 years now. It’s a completely untenable post-NIL era. Because of that, great players are more likely to go to schools where they can play immediately after being with a storied program.

College athletics is now more than ever determined by the players you can get; how much they can make and how a coach can turn that into a winning team. Look no further than this year’s NCAA Tournament.

There are plenty of historically dominant teams in the field. Duke, Arizona, UConn, Michigan State, etc. However, there are also St. John’s, Purdue, Alabama, Illinois and Iowa State that all made the Sweet 16. The days of the same 5-10 teams dominating the Tournament are over.

UNC suffers from what have you done for me lately

The last ten years are an important sample size as it mirrors the existence of NIL. In that span, UNC has been a No. 1 seed twice. In both cases, they lost in the regional semifinal. In 2022, the Tar Heels made the National Championship game and lost. That was Hubert Davis’ first season as head coach, and it only went downhill from there.

Between 2016 and 2021, UNC consistently ranked between No. 2 and No. 15 in recruiting. From 2022 until now, those rankings are closer to No. 10-No. 20. In 2026, they have the 27th ranked recruiting class. There is a natural regression to the mean that is created in large part by the introduction of NIL over time.

In the decade that includes NIL, North Carolina has one title. The last big contribution of the Roy Williams era. In that same span, Villanova has won it all twice, UConn has won it all twice, as well as Kansas, Baylor, Florida and Virginia. Kansas is a blue blood, the others are not.

A look into the previous 20 years and the dynamic is very different. From 1980 to 2000, UNC had four national titles, and a number of deep tournament runs. The other aspect that was common then was the same teams winning over and over again. Duke had five titles at that time. Kentucky had three titles at that time. Louisville had 3 titles at that time.

Yet in the last 9 years (excluding Williams’ last title), UNC, Duke, Kentucky and Louisville have failed to reach those levels. It’s not random, it’s not accidental, it’s not purely bad coaching, the players haven’t gotten worse, but the equation has changed.

UNC will continue to be a program of significance; the problem is they aren’t the only one. They certainly are not stopping outside programs from making strides and widening the competition at the top.

The name UNC carries no longer weighs so significantly over other Power Four level programs. They won’t be able to simply write their own ticket. Poaches good coaches from other programs won’t be as easy as it used to be. The world has changed. It’s going to take more than memories of Roy Williams and Dean Smith to establish dominance in the new world.