By Martin Graham
Burnley’s defeat to Manchester City confirmed their drop alongside Wolves, leaving one remaining place in the relegation zone. In recent weeks, the fight appeared to involve four sides — Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, and Tottenham — but momentum has started to shift.
Leeds’ dramatic late equaliser at Bournemouth, scored by Sean Longstaff, capped a run of seven points from three matches and lifted them to the symbolic 40-point mark. That tally is often associated with survival, prompting many to begin ruling them out of danger.
However, manager Daniel Farke remains cautious despite the encouraging position. He stressed that nothing is secured until it is mathematically guaranteed, even as his team enjoys a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions. Confidence is growing within the squad, particularly with a favourable fixture against already-relegated Burnley ahead, which could confirm their status.
For now, Leeds continues its push with discipline, aware that while safety is close, it has not yet been officially achieved.
Supercomputer points to Spurs as main danger
While Leeds appears to be pulling clear, statistical projections suggest the battle for survival is narrowing. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Leeds’ chances of relegation stand at just 0.21%, making their drop highly unlikely.
Nottingham Forest are also in a relatively strong position after recent positive results, with only a 4.27% probability of going down. Their improved form has given them breathing room compared to their closest rivals.
That leaves West Ham and Tottenham as the primary candidates for the final relegation place. West Ham are given a 38.58% chance of finishing in the bottom three, while Tottenham are considered more likely than not to be relegated, with a probability of 56.93%.
The numbers highlight a growing concern for Spurs, who are now viewed as favourites to fall into the Championship unless they can reverse their trajectory quickly.
Form tells a worrying story for Tottenham
Tottenham’s manager Roberto de Zerbi has expressed belief that his team can still produce a late surge, even suggesting they are capable of winning their remaining matches. Yet their recent performances do not support such optimism.
Spurs are currently on a 15-match winless run in the league and have not recorded a victory in 2026. Since late October, they have managed just two wins, a record that underlines their struggles throughout the campaign.
Their next match against bottom-placed Wolves carries added significance, as failure to win would match a club record for consecutive league games without victory set more than 90 years ago. In contrast, their relegation rivals have shown signs of improvement.
Forest have collected two wins in their last three games and remain unbeaten in five, while West Ham have secured two victories from their past five outings. Over a longer stretch, both sides have accumulated significantly more points than Spurs, whose return of six points from 15 matches since late December paints a bleak picture.
Decisive fixtures await in the run-in
With five games remaining, Tottenham may take some encouragement from their upcoming schedule. A trip to already-relegated Wolves presents an immediate opportunity, while a home fixture against Leeds could be favourable if their opponents have already secured survival.
Even a challenging encounter at Aston Villa may come at a convenient time, as it falls between their opponents’ European commitments. Matches against Chelsea and Everton to close the season, however, could prove demanding given those teams’ ambitions for European qualification.
West Ham face a mixed run of fixtures, starting with Everton at home before travelling to Brentford. Their schedule becomes more difficult with a clash against title-chasing Arsenal, followed by an away trip to Newcastle and a potentially decisive final-day meeting with Leeds.
Forest arguably has the toughest path, including away games against Chelsea and Manchester United. Home matches against Newcastle and Bournemouth could be crucial, but securing points earlier — such as in their upcoming game at Sunderland — may ease the pressure heading into the final weeks.
History and numbers offer mixed hope
Tottenham’s situation is historically troubling, as it has been nearly five decades since they were in the relegation zone at this stage of a season — and on that occasion, they failed to survive. Their home form has also been among the weakest in England’s top four divisions, with only two wins recorded.
Their current winless streak is among the longest ever at the start of a calendar year, with only two teams in Premier League history enduring longer runs — both of which were relegated.
Forest, by contrast, can draw encouragement from past trends showing that 36 points has been sufficient to stay up in every season since 2015-16. Leeds also benefits from historical precedent, as very few teams with 39 points or more have been relegated, and none in the past 14 years.
West Ham, however, serves as a reminder that even strong totals do not guarantee safety. Their record of 42 points in a relegation season remains the highest ever for a team that still went down.
With so little separating the remaining contenders, the fight to avoid the final relegation place looks set to go down to the wire.
