We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times to find each team’s probability of advancing in March Madness. Here’s what we learned about the women’s Final Four.
The 2025 NCAA women’s basketball tournament is capping off a competitive, thrilling season.
There have been some close calls and memorable games in this year’s March Madness, from Georgia Amoore coming so close to sending Kentucky to the Sweet 16, to Duke winning a defensive battle against North Carolina in their first-ever NCAA Tournament matchup, to Maryland edging Alabama in what might have been the game of the year.
Yes, three No. 1 seeds – defending national champion South Carolina, Texas and UCLA – and a No. 2 – UConn – are in this year’s women’s Final Four at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, but that somehow is less chalky than the men’s Final Four this time around. It’s no surprise from our perspective, as the four remaining teams represented the top four in TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) at the start of the 68-team bracket.
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR, a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. It represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more.
As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100). If the game has 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
Per TRACR, UConn, despite being the lone No. 2 seed, has the highest chance of winning it all. It gives the Huskies a 64.9% chance to beat UCLA in a semifinal Friday night and a 37.3% shot at winning the title.
Still, this Final Four could be anybody’s shot. Using traditional and advanced statistics, here is the case for each team emerging as the national champion.
Women’s Final Four
The Stars Can Power UConn
UConn and coach Geno Auriemma are seeking to add to their record total with a 12th all-time national title, but it would be their first since 2016 even though they’ve reached the Final Four in seven of the last eight NCAA Tournaments (this is Auriemma’s 24th trip to the Final Four).
The Huskies have had plenty of stars since their last title, but this season feels different.
We all suspected guard Paige Bueckers would likely be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, but her performance against Oklahoma in a regional semifinal might have made it a no-doubter. She was brilliant at every moment, propelling UConn from being down by four points at halftime to winning by 23. She finished with a career-high 40 points as well as six rebounds, three steals and two blocks, then followed it up with a 31-point performance against USC to reach the Final Four.
It’s not like Bueckers is carrying the team, however. Freshman forward Sarah Strong totaled 22 points and a career-best 17 rebounds against USC. Since the start of the Big East tournament, she’s averaged 15.9 points, 12.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.3 steals and 2.3 blocks – unreal from across the board.
Our metrics show why UConn’s stars propel the Huskies (35-3) to No. 1 in TRACR. Bueckers leads Division I in DRIP and offensive VAPR, and is second in WAR, while Strong is second in DRIP and first in defensive VAPR, total VAPR and WAR.
If this is a year when the best players lead their team to a title, then UConn will be on top once again.
Improvements Will Give South Carolina Back-to-Back Titles
In our March Madness preview, I mentioned to take the field over South Carolina, which entered the NCAA Tournament with the highest championship probability (25.3%). The other three Final Four teams were in the top five entering the tournament as well, so I stand by taking the field.
This is a nightmarish Final Four group for South Carolina (34-3) as the other three remaining teams handed the Gamecocks their only losses in the regular season. That included on the road against UCLA and Texas, and they were blown out at home by UConn 87-58.
In fact, South Carolina is the first Final Four team, men’s or women’s, to have all of its losses entering the Final Four against the other teams since Notre Dame in the 2017-18 season. The Fighting Irish lost to fellow Final Four teams UConn and Louisville (twice), but ended up beating Mississippi State in the title game thanks to Arike Ogunbowale’s game-winner. The Gamecocks are the only team in the last 25 seasons, men’s or women’s, to have only lost to each of its fellow Final Four teams.
South Carolina hasn’t traveled an easy road, either. After blowing out Tennessee Tech in the first round, the Gamecocks have had to come back after being down by eight against Indiana in the second round, by seven against Maryland in the Sweet 16, and by six against Duke in the regional final. One could say they escaped with wins in their last two games.
South Carolina will have to adjust after losing to the other three Final Four teams in the regular season and, as we saw in the regional games, will likely need in-game adjustments to come out on top. But that’s a strength of Dawn Staley, who’s been an absolute genius in coaching this squad to another women’s Final Four (TRACR gives the Gamecocks a 55.0% chance to advance past Texas in their semifinal).
South Carolina’s 40.6 bench points per game are absurd (the next-best average in Division I is 31.4), but if anyone needs to step up for the Gamecocks to win it all, it must be starting guard Te-Hina Paopao. The senior leader sparked South Carolina’s third-quarter run against Indiana that helped avoid an upset, but she hasn’t scored in double figures since the final game of the regular season.
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Defense Will Win It for Texas
After shooting 52.7% from the field against FDU, 63.0% against Louisville and 50.0% against Notre Dame, TCU had no answers against Texas. The Horned Frogs shot 26.7% from the field and put up 47 points – both season lows. Texas forced 21 turnovers, some of which were simply from TCU trying to inbound the ball, while advancing to its first Final Four since 2003.
Texas (35-3) has led its conference in scoring defense in each of the last four seasons under coach Vic Schaefer. This season, the Longhorns rank second in defensive TRACR, having just defeated one of the best offensive teams in the nation (TCU is third in offensive TRACR) by dictating the game’s style of play.
One thing Texas might need to do to come out on top is take more 3-point attempts. The Longhorns average only 10.4 per game – the third fewest in Division I – and make only 29.9% of them. It didn’t matter for them in their 66-62 win against South Carolina, as they went 0 for 4 from beyond the arc, but they’ve also lost twice to the Gamecocks, going a combined 2 of 13 on 3s.
If anyone is to take those shots, it’s likely to be star sophomore Madison Booker, who’s shooting 41.0% on 3s this season.
But it will be defense, defense, defense with Texas. Moving 6-foot-2 guard Ndjakalenga Mwenetanda to the starting lineup has given the Longhorns more height, shot blocking and rebounding.
They will need it to beat South Carolina and make a trip to the final.
The Interior Will Win It for UCLA
While UCLA men’s basketball has a record 11 NCAA Tournament titles, this UCLA women’s squad is the first in program history to make the Final Four. What a feat for coach Cori Close and the Bruins (34-2) after falling in the Sweet 16 in the last two years.
UCLA’s only two losses this season were against JuJu Watkins and USC. Watkins poured in 38 and 30 points to lead the Trojans, although the Bruins came back to win the third meeting in the Big Ten tournament final.
The Bruins will need to slow down UConn stars Bueckers and Strong to reach Sunday’s national championship game, and they can with a big presence down low.
How will anyone in the Final Four handle Lauren Betts? The 6-7 center is the second-tallest player remaining in the tournament behind Texas’ 6-9 Abbie Boutilier, who hasn’t played this season. Betts is the only Division I player to be averaging at least 3.0 blocks per game (3.0) while shooting over 60.0% from the field (64.9). She will have a five-inch advantage over Strong and could dominate on both sides of the floor (UConn also starts 6-5 center Jana El Alfy with 6-3 Ice Brady coming off the bench).
Building its game around Betts while having shooters around her has helped UCLA space the floor immensely well. While the Bruins have five players shooting at least 35.0% on 3s with at least 80 attempts, the interior is their strength.
UCLA has outrebounded its opponents by 12.3 per game, second in Division I behind Oklahoma (12.5). In the paint, the Bruins average 39.9 points and hold opponents to just 22.6 per game – an impressive 17.3-point differential.
But then, the other Final Four teams also do well there.
The Bruins can still dominate in the paint with Betts, but they might have to hit some 3s along the way. Lately, those attempts have been falling as they’ve shot 44.5% from beyond the arc over the last six games. Timea Gardiner is their best 3-point shooter (39.9%) and hit five 3s against LSU in the regional final.
Put it all together and this weekend offers an outstanding women’s Final Four.
You can follow our predictions live for both the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments on our NCAA pages.
