The first round of the NBA playoffs featured three Game 7s and three upsets, according to what the odds had laid out before the round started. Will the second round live up to that excitement?
The two series in the Eastern Conference appear relatively wide open, with the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers series lined at nearly a coin flip. The New York Knicks are favored against the Philadelphia 76ers, but the odds aren’t that lopsided.
In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are heavy favorites against shorthanded opponents. On paper, those series could end up being short.
This story will be updated throughout the playoffs as the odds change with the results for every game.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 1: 7 p.m. ET, Tuesday
Series odds: Pistons -120, Cavaliers +100
Both teams enter this series after surviving Game 7s at home. The Pistons came back from 3-1 down to Orlando (and 24 points down in Game 6 while facing elimination) to avoid the embarrassment of losing as a No. 1 seed. The Cavaliers came back from 10 points down in the first half to get past Toronto in Game 7.
The Pistons have not gotten a lot of respect in the betting market despite being the top seed in the conference, but they are slight favorites to win this series. The first round didn’t do much to add confidence in Detroit, but it’s not like Cleveland looked like world-beaters either. At least the Cavs won every home game against the Raptors.
Detroit’s Cade Cunningham averaged 5.9 turnovers per game against the Magic, which was the most of anyone in the first round. He also averaged 32.4 points per game. For the most part, Cunningham didn’t get much help until Tobias Harris dropped 30 points in Game 7. Cunningham won’t be able to beat Cleveland by himself.
The James Harden experiment in Cleveland showed mixed results in the first round. Harden averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 5.1 turnovers in the first round. He gives Donovan Mitchell some much-needed help in scoring and creation, but the Cavs might need even more to get past Detroit.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Game 1: 8 p.m. ET, Monday
Series odds: Knicks -270, 76ers +220
We’ll never know if the 76ers would’ve beaten Boston in Game 7 if Jayson Tatum was healthy and available, but Philadelphia started to look like a contender by the end of that series. Joel Embiid is still hard to guard, Tyrese Maxey is turning into an elite scorer and Paul George and VJ Edgecombe give Philly multiple options to balance the scoring load.
Embiid was third in the first round in scoring average at 28 points per game. Maxey was next at 26.9.
Still, the Knicks enter this series as the favorites. The Knicks are favored by a sizable 7.5 points for Game 1, although the series odds are giving Philly a roughly 30 percent chance of advancing. That’s far from long-shot status.
The Knicks had some drama in the first round, until they had absolutely none. New York fell behind 2-1 to Atlanta and faced a virtual must-win on the road in Game 4 before atomizing the Hawks three games in a row. The Knicks went from being favored to lose in the first round to Atlanta to being the betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (+140 on DraftKings).
Was that the Knicks figuring out how to beat Atlanta, or were they reaching an extra gear and setting the table for a deeper playoff run?
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers
Game 1: 8:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday
Series odds: Thunder -1600, Lakers +900
The Thunder were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round and are getting near even-money odds (+120) to sweep the Lakers as well.
Just over a month ago, this series would’ve been a blockbuster. Luka Dončić was entering the MVP discussion, Austin Reaves was proving to be a consistent scorer and LeBron James was still LeBron James. However, Dončić has been out since April 2. The Lakers survived the also-shorthanded Houston Rockets in the first round without Dončić and with Reaves only playing two games.
Getting Reaves back helps, but in order to compete with, let alone beat, Oklahoma City, the Lakers will need Dončić. He could return this series, but it doesn’t sound like it will be soon.
As long as Dončić is out, the odds are going to be lopsided in the Thunder’s favor. OKC is favored by a whopping 15.5 points for Game 1.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Game 1: 9:30 p.m. ET, Monday
Series odds: Spurs -1200, Timberwolves +700
Other than a Victor Wembanyama concussion that made Spurs fans’ hearts skip a beat, the first round was a very smooth playoff debut for this group. San Antonio won in five, only losing the game in which Wembanyama got hurt, and even winning the one game he sat out.
In theory, the competition should get tougher, but Minnesota is so shorthanded this series that a Spurs sweep is only paying out at +150 on DraftKings. Donte DiVincenzo is out for Minnesota with an Achilles injury, Anthony Edwards will miss the start of the series and Ayo Dosunmu is questionable for Game 1 after missing the final game of the Denver series with a calf injury.
While the Timberwolves were able to upset Denver thanks to an athleticism edge (and the absence of Aaron Gordon), that edge will not exist against this young Spurs team. Beyond what Wemby brings on defense, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper all can score to help the French superstar.
A healthy Minnesota could make this series interesting, but the odds are saying this series could be short. At least the Wemby vs. Rudy Gobert matchup should be fun to watch.
